Ecological mechanisms underpinning climate adaptation services

Ecosystem services are typically valued for their immediate material or cultural benefits to human wellbeing, supported by regulating and supporting services. Under climate change, with more frequent stresses and novel shocks, 'climate adaptation services', are defined as the benefits to people from increased social ability to respond to change, provided by the capability of ecosystems to moderate and adapt to climate change and variability. They broaden the ecosystem services framework to assist decision makers in planning for an uncertain future with new choices and options. We present a generic framework for operationalising the adaptation services concept. Four steps guide the identification of intrinsic ecological mechanisms that facilitate the maintenance and emergence of ecosystem services during periods of change, and so materialise as adaptation services. We applied this framework for four contrasted Australian ecosystems. Comparative analyses enabled by the operational framework suggest that adaptation services that emerge during trajectories of ecological change are supported by common mechanisms: vegetation structural diversity, the role of keystone species or functional groups, response diversity and landscape connectivity, which underpin the persistence of function and the reassembly of ecological communities under severe climate change and variability. Such understanding should guide ecosystem management towards adaptation planning.     

Drivers of temporal changes in temperate forest plant diversity vary across spatial scales

Global biodiversity is affected by numerous environmental drivers. Yet, the extent to which global environmental changes contribute to changes in local diversity is poorly understood. We investigated biodiversity changes in a meta‐analysis of 39 resurvey studies in European temperate forests (3988 vegetation records in total, 17–75 years between the two surveys) by assessing the importance of (i) coarse‐resolution (i.e., among sites) vs. fine‐resolution (i.e., within sites) environmental differences and (ii) changing environmental conditions between surveys. Our results clarify the mechanisms underlying the direction and magnitude of local‐scale biodiversity changes. While not detecting any net local diversity loss, we observed considerable among‐site variation, partly explained by temporal changes in light availability (a local driver) and density of large herbivores (a regional driver). Furthermore, strong evidence was found that presurvey levels of nitrogen deposition determined subsequent diversity changes. We conclude that models forecasting future biodiversity changes should consider coarse‐resolution environmental changes, account for differences in baseline environmental conditions and for local changes in fine‐resolution environmental conditions.     

Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito‐borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird–mosquito–malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid‐century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health.     

Exotic grasses and nitrate enrichment alter soil carbon cycling along an urban–rural tropical forest gradient

Urban areas are expanding rapidly in tropical regions, with potential to alter ecosystem dynamics. In particular, exotic grasses and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition simultaneously affect tropical urbanized landscapes, with unknown effects on properties like soil carbon (C) storage. We hypothesized that (H1) soil nitrate (NO₃^?) is elevated nearer to the urban core, reflecting N deposition gradients. (H2) Exotic grasslands have elevated soil NO₃^? and decreased soil C relative to secondary forests, with higher N promoting decomposer activity. (H3) Exotic grasslands have greater seasonality in soil NO₃^? vs. secondary forests, due to higher sensitivity of grassland soil moisture to rainfall. We predicted that NO₃^? would be positively related to dissolved organic C (DOC) production via changes in decomposer activity. We measured six paired grassland/secondary forest sites along a tropical urban‐to‐rural gradient during the three dominant seasons (hurricane, dry, and early wet). We found that (1) soil NO₃^? was generally elevated nearer to the urban core, with particularly clear spatial trends for grasslands. (2) Exotic grasslands had lower soil C than secondary forests, which was related to elevated decomposer enzyme activities and soil respiration. Unexpectedly, soil NO₃^? was negatively related to enzyme activities, and was lower in grasslands than forests. (3) Grasslands had greater soil NO₃^? seasonality vs. forests, but this was not strongly linked to shifts in soil moisture or DOC. Our results suggest that exotic grasses in tropical regions are likely to drastically reduce soil C storage, but that N deposition may have an opposite effect via suppression of enzyme activities. However, soil NO₃^? accumulation here was higher in urban forests than grasslands, potentially related to of aboveground N interception. Net urban effects on C storage across tropical landscapes will likely vary depending on the mosaic of grass cover, rates of N deposition, and responses by local decomposer communities.     

Montane forest ecotones moved downslope in northeastern USA in spite of warming between 1984 and 2011

Ecotones are transition zones that form, in forests, where distinct forest types meet across a climatic gradient. In mountains, ecotones are compressed and act as potential harbingers of species shifts that accompany climate change. As the climate warms in New England, USA, high‐elevation boreal forests are expected to recede upslope, with northern hardwood species moving up behind. Yet recent empirical studies present conflicting findings on this dynamic, reporting both rapid upward ecotonal shifts and concurrent increases in boreal species within the region. These discrepancies may result from the limited spatial extent of observations. We developed a method to model and map the montane forest ecotone using Landsat imagery to observe change at scales not possible for plot‐based studies, covering mountain peaks over 39 000 km². Our results show that ecotones shifted downward or stayed stable on most mountains between 1991 and 2010, but also shifted upward in some cases (13–15% slopes). On average, upper ecotone boundaries moved down ?1.5 m yr^?1 in the Green Mountains, VT, and ?1.3 m yr^?1 in the White Mountains, NH. These changes agree with remeasured forest inventory data from Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, NH, and suggest that processes of boreal forest recovery from prior red spruce decline, or human land use and disturbance, may swamp out any signal of climate‐mediated migration in this ecosystem. This approach represents a powerful framework for evaluating similar ecotonal dynamics in other mountainous regions of the globe.