二点委夜蛾卵巢发育分级及在预测预报中的应用

对室内饲养的二点委夜蛾Athelis lepigone(Moschler)雌成虫分时段进行解剖,观察其卵巢的结构及发育进程。结果显示二点委夜蛾具有1对卵巢,各由4个卵巢小管组成。发育进程可分为5个阶段:透明期、卵黄沉积期、成熟待产期、产卵盛期和产卵末期。河北省石家庄地区2011年7月下旬至8月上旬田间卵巢发育的监测结果显示,Ⅰ级卵巢在整个发生期所占比例较高,Ⅳ级卵巢所占比例较低,推测其下一代幼虫的发生量将较低,并与田间调查结果吻合,因此卵巢解剖分级法可以用于二点委夜蛾的预测预报工作。     

Evidence of peak-to-peak dynamics in ecology

Remarkably irregular peaks characterize the dynamics of many plant and animal populations. As such peaks are often associated with undesirable consequences (e.g. pest outbreaks, epidemics, forest fires), the forecast of the forthcoming peak is a problem of major concern. Here we show, through the analysis of a number of models and of some of the longest and most celebrated ecological time-series, that the intensity of the forthcoming peak can often be predicted simply from the previous peaks. When this is possible, one can also predict the time of occurrence of the forthcoming peak.     

Forecasting infections of the red rot disease on Porphyra yezoensis Ueda (Rhodophyta) cultivation farms

Pythium porphyrae is a fungal pathogen responsible for red rot disease of the seaweed Porphyra (Rhodophyta). Infection forecasts of Porphyra by P. porphyrae were estimated from the epidemiological observations of Porphyra thalli and numbers of zoospore of P. porphyrae in laboratory and cultivation areas. Four features of forecasting infections were determined by relating zoospore concentrations to the incidence of thallus infection; infection (in more than 1000 zoospores L⁻¹), microscopic infection [less than 2 mm in diameter of lesion (in from 2000 to 3000 zoospores L⁻¹)], macroscopic infection [more than 2 mm in diameter of lesion (in from 3000 to 4000 zoospores L⁻¹), and thallus disintegration (in more than 4000 zoospores L⁻¹). High zoospore concentrations led to more infection. The tendency that zoospore concentration of P. porphyrae increased with the rate of infection of Porphyra thalli was generally observed in forecasting infections in both the laboratory and in cultivation areas. Based on the Porphyra cultivation areas, the accuracy and consistency of forecasting infections suggest that this method could be employed to manage and control red rot disease.     

Towards numerical forecasting of long-range air transport of birch pollen: theoretical considerations and a feasibility study

This paper considers the feasibility of numerical simulation of large-scale atmospheric transport of allergenic pollen. It is shown that at least small grains, such as birch pollen, can stay in the air for a few days, which leads to a characteristic scale for their transport of ∼10³ km. The analytical consideration confirmed the applicability of existing dispersion models to the pollen transport task and provided some reference parameterizations of the key processes, including dry and wet deposition. The results were applied to the Finnish Emergency Dispersion Modelling System (SILAM), which was then used to analyze pollen transport to Finland during spring time in 2002–2004. Solutions of the inverse problems (source apportionment) showed that the main source areas, from which the birch flowering can affect Finnish territory, are the Baltic States, Russia, Germany, Poland, and Sweden—depending on the particular meteorological situation. Actual forecasting of pollen dispersion required a birch forest map of Europe and a unified European model for birch flowering, both of which were nonexistent before this study. A map was compiled from the national forest inventories of Western Europe and satellite images of broadleaf forests. The flowering model was based on the mean climatological dates for the onset of birch forests rather than conditions of any specific year. Utilization of probability forecasting somewhat alleviated the problem, but the development of a European-wide flowering model remains the main obstacle for real-time forecasting of large-scale pollen distribution.     

The successful quest for oral factor Xa inhibitors; learnings for all of medicinal chemistry?

The medicinal chemistry of oral small molecule factor Xa inhibitors is discussed, highlighting key advances that led to clinical candidates and the first licensed medicines. Identification of neutral ligands for the primary specificity pocket was a key discovery; capitalised upon by structure based design and combinatorial methods to deliver many variations on the theme; but it was good medicinal chemistry practice, in the optimisation of physical properties, which ultimately delivered efficacious compounds with adequate oral exposure. As a retrospective appraisal, representative compounds were profiled using the more contemporary concepts of Ligand Efficiency and Property Forecast Indices; which gave clear indications of the value of these principles.     

广州地区冬季鱼塘水温特征及其预测预报

冬季水温对耐寒性较差的热带、亚热带鱼类的安全越冬有重要影响。本文根据鱼塘水温和附近气象站气温观测资料 ,研究了广州地区冬季鱼塘水温特征及其预测模型。结果表明 ,与气温相比 ,鱼塘水温日振幅较小 ,日最高温度出现时间滞后 ,这种特征在逐时温度和日平均温度上表现得都非常明显 ;晴天条件下水温的日变化远大于阴天 ;随水层深度的增加 ,水温日振幅逐渐减小 ,位相滞后也愈加明显。水温与气温的交叉相关分析表明 ,水温与当日、前一日、前二日、前三日的气温有显著的相关关系 ,与前四日、前五日的关系已不明显。利用逐步回归分析 ,建立了以气温为自变量的各水层水温预报模型。各模型的回归效果都达到了显著水平 ,平均绝对误差均在 0 5℃以内 ,平均相对误差均在 1 0 %以内 ,具有较高的精度 ,可用于冬季鱼塘水温的预报。