The use and misuse of regression models in landscape genetic analyses

The field of landscape genetics has been rapidly evolving, adopting and adapting analytical frameworks to address research questions. Current studies are increasingly using regression‐based frameworks to infer the individual contributions of landscape and habitat variables on genetic differentiation. This paper outlines appropriate and inappropriate uses of multiple regression for these purposes, and demonstrates through simulation the limitations of different analytical frameworks for making correct inference. Of particular concern are recent studies seeking to explain genetic differences by fitting regression models with effective distance variables calculated independently on separate landscape resistance surfaces. When moving across the landscape, organisms cannot respond independently and uniquely to habitat and landscape features. Analyses seeking to understand how landscape features affect gene flow should model a single conductance or resistance surface as a parameterized function of relevant spatial covariates, and estimate the values of these parameters by linking a single set of resistance distances to observed genetic dissimilarity via a loss function. While this loss function may involve a regression‐like step, the associated nuisance parameters are not interpretable in terms of organismal movement and should not be conflated with what is actually of interest: the mapping between spatial covariates and conductance/resistance. The growth and evolution of landscape genetics as a field has been rapid and exciting. It is the goal of this paper to highlight past missteps and demonstrate limitations of current approaches to ensure that future use of regression models will appropriately consider the process being modeled, which will provide clarity to model interpretation.     

Parallel speciation or long‐distance dispersal? Lessons from seaweeds (Fucus) in the Baltic Sea

Parallel evolution has been invoked as a forceful mechanism of ecotype and species formation in many animal taxa. However, parallelism may be difficult to separate from recently monophyletically diverged species that are likely to show complex genetic relationships as a result of considerable shared ancestral variation and secondary hybridization in local areas. Thus, species' degrees of reproductive isolation, barriers to dispersal and, in particular, limited capacities for long‐distance dispersal will affect demographical structures underlying mechanisms of divergent evolution. Here, we used nine microsatellite DNA markers to study intra‐ and interspecific genetic diversity of two recently diverged species of brown macroalgae, Fucus radicans (L. Bergström & L. Kautsky) and F. vesiculosus (Linnaeus), in the Baltic Sea. We further performed biophysical modelling to identify likely connectivity patterns influencing the species' genetic structures. For each species, we found intraspecific contrasting patterns of clonality incidence and population structure. In addition, strong genetic differentiation between the two species within each locality supported the existence of two distinct evolutionary lineages (F_ST = 0.15–0.41). However, overall genetic clustering analyses across both species' populations revealed that all populations from one region (Estonia) were more genetically similar to each other than to their own taxon from the other two regions (Sweden and Finland). Our data support a hypothesis of parallel speciation. Alternatively, Estonia may be the ancestral source of both species, but is presently isolated by oceanographic barriers to dispersal. Thus, a limited gene flow in combination with genetic drift could have shaped the seemingly parallel structure.     

Predicting the structural integrity of bone defects repaired using bone graft materials

Bone defects create stress concentrations which can cause fracture under impact or cyclic loading. Defects are often repaired by filling them with a bone graft material; this will reduce the stress concentration, but not completely, because these materials have lower stiffness than bone. The fracture risk decreases over time as the graft material is replaced by living bone. Many new bone graft materials are being developed, using tissue engineering and other techniques, but currently there is no rational way to compare these materials and predict their effectiveness in repairing a given defect. This paper describes, for the first time, a theoretical model which can be used to predict failure by brittle fracture or fatigue, initiating at the defect. Preliminary results are presented, concentrating on the prediction of stress fracture during the crucial post-operative period. It is shown that the likelihood of fracture is strongly influenced by the shape of the defect as well as its size, and also by the level of post-operative exercise. The most important finding is that bone graft materials can be successful in preventing fracture even when their mechanical properties are greatly inferior to those of bone. Future uses of this technique include pre-clinical assessment of bone replacement materials and pre-operative planning in orthopaedic surgery.     

Pollen limitation and fruit abortion in a declining rare tree,the Eurasian yew (Taxus baccata L.): A reproductive cost of ecological marginality

Populations of rare tree species such as the dioecious and anemophilous yew (Taxus baccata) are especially prone to extinction if they occupy marginal habitats. This is the case of yew populations growing in Mediterranean mountains under dry climate and a severe anthropogenic disturbance regime, which show insufficient regeneration. We examined two of the likely mechanisms driving this population decline. The study was conducted in a central Spanish yew population in 2005 and 2006. On one hand, we tested for the effect of the amount of pollen received by female flowers by means of a pollen addition experiment. On the other hand, we tested for the effect of initial fruit set on abortion and mature fruit production. Finally, we evaluated the effect of the spatial arrangement of male and female yew trees on realized fecundity. The success of fertilization and fruiting in the experimental population was pollen-limited. Female trees aborted ca. 70% of the fruit set in both years and treatments. Fruit set was significantly influenced by the females' neighbourhood, with fecundity decreasing exponentially with distance to the nearest male in both years. Overall, our results indicate that factors associated with ecological marginality have a strong influence on yew performance.     

Spatial segregation of four coexisting processional termites (Termitidae: Nasutitermitinae) in tropical rainforest

In Lambir Hills National Park, Sarawak, Malaysia, there are four species of processional termites that coexist: Hospitalitermes hospitalis, H. lividiceps, H. rufus and Longipeditermes longipes. This paper presents the results of our investigation on the spatial distribution of nests and the foraging activities of the four species in coexistence. The results show that there are fairly marked differences in nesting sites, as well as in foraging activities, among the four species. It is noteworthy that H. rufus inhabits only the canopy area over 20 m above ground, apparently segregated from the other three species, and that their foraging activities are limited also to tree canopies over 10 m above ground. In contrast, L. longipes nests underground and forages exclusively on the forest floor. Hospitalitermes hospitalis and H. lividiceps inhabit and forage over wide areas, from the forest floor to tree canopies. The upper parts of the tree canopy (over 10 m) are also foraging territories of the secluded H. rufus, but there were no observations of simultaneous foraging of the three Hospitalitermes species in the same canopy areas.     

Limited niche differentiation within remarkable co‐occurrences of congeneric species: Monomorium ants in the Australian seasonal tropics

Niche theory predicts that few closely related species can co‐occur because such species tend to be ecologically similar and niche differentiation is required to avoid competitive exclusion. We analyse the co‐occurrence of a remarkable 10–15 species of the ant genus Monomorium occurring within single 10 × 10 m plots in a tropical savanna of northern Australia. Most of the species are undescribed, so we use genetic analysis to validate our species demarcations. We document nest dispersion patterns, and investigate differentiation in the three primary niche dimensions: space, time and food. We also examine species differences in competitive abilities, by describing rates of foraging activity, foraging ranges, worker aggression, and levels of behavioural dominance. Analyses of nest and forager distributions showed very limited evidence of spatial segregation within plots. The great majority of species foraged either exclusively or primarily during daylight hours. Body size and isotopic analyses indicated very limited dietary differentiation. Such limited niche partitioning occurred despite the species differing markedly in their competitive abilities as measured by rates of resource discovery, recruitment and monopolization. Our findings defy the traditional assumption that multiple closely related and ecologically similar species of highly interactive taxa cannot co‐occur. It seems very likely that species coexistence in our study system is determined to a very large degree by stochastic processes relating to dispersal and establishment, as predicted by neutral theory. However, neutral theory assumes competitive equivalence, whereas we found very marked differences in the competitive abilities of our co‐occurring species. We suggest that competitive exclusion is prevented by the modular nature of ant colonies, with competition limiting colony performance but not preventing occurrence. We conclude that other factors that allow species persistence, and not just competitive equivalence, can allow dispersal and establishment processes to drive species coexistence.     

The short‐ and long‐term fitness consequences of natal dispersal in a wild bird population

Dispersal is a key process in population and evolutionary ecology. Individual decisions are affected by fitness consequences of dispersal, but these are difficult to measure in wild populations. A long‐term dataset on a geographically closed bird population, the Mauritius kestrel, offers a rare opportunity to explore fitness consequences. Females dispersed further when the availability of local breeding sites was limited, whereas male dispersal correlated with phenotypic traits. Female but not male fitness was lower when they dispersed longer distances compared to settling close to home. These results suggest a cost of dispersal in females. We found evidence of both short‐ and long‐term fitness consequences of natal dispersal in females, including reduced fecundity in early life and more rapid aging in later life. Taken together, our results indicate that dispersal in early life might shape life history strategies in wild populations.     

Integrating frugivory and animal movement: a review of the evidence and implications for scaling seed dispersal

General principles about the consequences of seed dispersal by animals for the structure and dynamics of plant populations and communities remain elusive. This is in part because seed deposition patterns emerge from interactions between frugivore behaviour and the distribution of food resources, both of which can vary over space and time. Here we advocate a frugivore‐centred, process‐based, synthetic approach to seed dispersal research that integrates seed dispersal ecology and animal movement across multiple spatio‐temporal scales. To guide this synthesis, we survey existing literature using paradigms from seed dispersal and animal movement. Specifically, studies are discussed with respect to five criteria: selection of focal organisms (animal or plant); measurement of animal movement; characterization of seed shadow; animal, plant and environmental factors included in the study; and scales of the study. Most studies focused on either frugivores or plants and characterized seed shadows directly by combining gut retention time with animal movement data or indirectly by conducting maternity analysis of seeds. Although organismal traits and environmental factors were often measured, they were seldom used to characterize seed shadows. Multi‐scale analyses were rare, with seed shadows mostly characterized at fine spatial scales, over single fruiting seasons, and for individual dispersers. Novel animal‐ and seed‐tracking technologies, remote environmental monitoring tools, and advances in analytical methods can enable effective implementation of a hierarchical mechanistic approach to the study of seed dispersal. This kind of mechanistic approach will provide novel insights regarding the complex interplay between the factors that modulate animal behaviour and subsequently influence seed dispersal patterns across spatial and temporal scales.     

Predicted future distribution of the African skimmer in response to a changing climate,land cover and distance from water in the mid-Zambezi Valley

Climate models project a hot and dry future for Southern Africa. In this research, Maximum Entropy was used to model the extent to which climate change, land cover and distance from water edges may influence current and future distribution of the African skimmer in the mid-Zambezi Valley. Global Biodiversity Information Facility data collected between the years 2000–2019 were used to develop the models. Three models were built: one for current distribution and two for future distribution under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 6.0. Results revealed that annual precipitation and distance from water edges were the most important predictors of habitat suitability for the African skimmer under current and future climate. Temperature and land cover were least important in explaining current and future distribution of the species. The RCP 2.6 predicted future decrease in suitable habitat for the African skimmer in the mid-Zambezi Valley, while RCP 6.0 predicted future increase in suitable habitat for the species. This research conclusively revealed that precipitation and distance from water edges were consistently key predictors of suitable habitat for the African skimmer.