An Extreme Value Analysis of Pollutant Concentrations in Surface Soils Due to Atmospheric Deposition

Risk assessments often rely on deterministic models using long-term averages or “steady-state” values of input variables. Such models do not provide the information needed to estimate acute exposures. This study uses extreme value theory to examine the frequency and magnitude of daily pollutant concentrations in surface soils predicted at six U.S. locations. Concentrations are predicted using a deposition-leaching model and 50 years of historical precipitation data. A stochastic model also is used to generate 1000 years of precipitation data as modeling inputs for each location. The annual maximum concentrations at each site are fitted to a Gumbel type I distribution to estimate occurrence probability. For soluble pollutants, the predicted concentration varied substantially with precipitation, and the maximum daily concentrations exceeded annual averages by 4 to 8 times. Observed and synthetic precipitation data produced similar results at most study locations, though the synthetic data provided a slightly better fit to the Gumbel type I distribution. The precipitation model allows the generation of representative precipitation data that extend limited historical records. The extreme value analysis facilitates the evaluation of maximum pollutant concentrations, return periods, and other statistics that are important in evaluating acute exposures.     

Microbial diversity of boron-rich volcanic hot springs of St. Lucia, Lesser Antilles

The volcanic Sulphur Springs, St. Lucia, present an extreme environment due to high temperatures, low pH values, and high concentrations of sulfate and boron. St. Lucia offers some unique geochemical characteristics that may shape the microbial communities within the Sulphur Springs area. We chose six pools representing a range of geochemical characteristics for detailed microbial community analyses. Chemical concentrations varied greatly between sites. Microbial diversity was analyzed using 16S rRNA gene clone library analyses. With the exception of one pool with relatively low concentrations of dissolved ions, microbial diversity was very low, with Aquificales sequences dominating bacterial communities at most pools. The archaeal component of all pools was almost exclusively Acidianus spp. and did not vary between sites with different chemical characteristics. In the pool with the highest boron and sulfate concentrations, only archaeal sequences were detected. Compared with other sulfur springs such as those at Yellowstone, the microbial diversity at St. Lucia is very different, but it is similar to that at the nearby Lesser Antilles island of Montserrat. While high elemental concentrations seem to be related to differences in bacterial diversity here, similarities with other Lesser Antilles sites suggest that there may be a biogeographical component as well.     

Sources of variation in larval parasitism of two sympatrically outbreaking birch forest defoliators

1. Studies of insect communities rarely support the parasitoid–host regulation hypothesis. Spatio‐temporal variation in parasitoid prevalence due to complex food web interactions or abiotic factors may prevent parasitoids from regulating hosts. 2. We examined the relative contribution of spatial (altitude) and temporal (years) sources to total variation in parasitoid prevalence rates in outbreaks of Epirrita autumnata Borkhausen and Operophtera brumata Linnaeus populations. We tested whether prevalence rates of generalist parasitoids were correlated between sympatric host populations and to what extent any of the parasitoids were host density dependent. 3. Four larval parasitoids (two specialists and two generalists) exhibited significantly structured spatio‐temporal dynamics over years and altitudes. The prevalence rates of one of the generalists were spatio‐temporally correlated between the two host species, while for the other they were not. 4. Three parasitoids showed tendencies for direct or delayed positive density dependence as expected from numerical and functional responses to their hosts. However, the effects were weak and minute compared to the variation attributed to year and altitude. 5. We conclude that unknown aspects of the larval parasitoid ecology that co‐vary with altitude and year in the study system dominate their prevalence dynamics and thus act to hinder density‐dependent responses that could potentially regulate host populations.     

Pollenfertility and seed formation in theOrnithogalum umbellatum/angustifolium complex (Liliaceae/Scilloideae)

The pollen fertility and seed formation of six species of theOrnithogalum umbellatum/angustifolium complex and of seven related species were studied. Four types of pollen grains could be recognized. The pollen fertility varied greatly in this complex and is not related to the ploidy level. The seed formation ofO. umbellatum showed an adaptation to a subcontinental-Mediterranean climate, that ofO. angustifolium to an Atlantic climate. In both cases raindrops seem to be important for pollination, in view of the absence of insect pollinators. After open pollination 113 seedlings were obtained in four species. Their chromosome numbers were determined. Nearly all the cultivated seedlings were aneuploid, which points to a positive selection of euploids in nature, because aneuploid individuals are rare in the wild.Biosystematic Studies on theOrnithogalum umbellatum/angustifolium Complex III.—Previous parts of this series are Part I: Taxonomy. Proceeding Kon. Ned. Acad. Wet. series C,85 (4), 563–574 (1982) andvan Raamsdonk (1984).     

荒漠土壤微生物量碳、氮变化对降水的响应

以腾格里沙漠东南缘的典型荒漠植被为研究对象,通过遮雨棚和滴灌系统设置5个降水梯度,即极端干旱处理、中度干旱处理、对照、增水处理I和增水处理II,研究了荒漠土壤微生物量碳(MBC)、氮(MBN)和微生物碳氮比(MBC/MBN)对季节、降水和土壤深度的响应规律,以期为极端降水事件影响干旱荒漠区土壤微生物量碳、氮及其循环规律的深入研究提供科学依据。结果表明:(1)MBC、MBN和MBC/MBN对降水处理的响应存在差异,三者的变化范围为:230.14—272.87 mg/kg,13.82—17.58 mg/kg,19.78—36.06。其中,降水处理对MBC、MBN的影响显著,对MBC/MBN的影响不显著,在极端干旱处理下,MBC、MBN均显著高于其他降水处理;(2)两年间的MBC、MBN和MBC/MBN差异显著,2017年较2016年MBC、MNB显著减少,MBC/MBN显著增加;(3)MBC、MBN和MBC/MBN变化均表现季节性差异,变化范围分别为:153.31—337.09 mg/kg,7.89—22.29 mg/kg,14.82—46.04,其中MBC、MBN为春季最高、秋季最低,M...     

Excessive rainfall leads to maize yield loss of a comparable magnitude to extreme drought in the United States

Increasing drought and extreme rainfall are major threats to maize production in the United States. However, compared to drought impact, the impact of excessive rainfall on crop yield remains unresolved. Here, we present observational evidence from crop yield and insurance data that excessive rainfall can reduce maize yield up to ?34% (?17 ± 3% on average) in the United States relative to the expected yield from the long‐term trend, comparable to the up to ?37% loss by extreme drought (?32 ± 2% on average) from 1981 to 2016. Drought consistently decreases maize yield due to water deficiency and concurrent heat, with greater yield loss for rainfed maize in wetter areas. Excessive rainfall can have either negative or positive impact on crop yield, and its sign varies regionally. Excessive rainfall decreases maize yield significantly in cooler areas in conjunction with poorly drained soils, and such yield loss gets exacerbated under the condition of high preseason soil water storage. Current process‐based crop models cannot capture the yield loss from excessive rainfall and overestimate yield under wet conditions. Our results highlight the need for improved understanding and modeling of the excessive rainfall impact on crop yield.     

Climatic characteristics of heat waves and their simulation in plant experiments

Extreme events such as heat waves are emerging as a key facet of climate change, but to date, experiments on the impacts on plants are scarce. Experimental simulation of heat waves requires knowledge of regional heat wave characteristics, as plant responses depend heavily on meteorological conditions. We analysed nine Western European meteorological datasets, and found that heat waves occurring during the growing season in this region encompass more sunshine (+ 69%), lower precipitation (?78%) and a larger vapour pressure deficit (VPD) (+ 111%) compared with normal conditions. Possible consequences for plant responses are discussed, with emphasis on the likely seasonal variation of heat wave impacts. We explain why infrared heating (which typically increases VPD) is an appropriate technique for heat wave simulation. Finally, we advocate experiments to take into account the smaller nighttime compared with daytime temperature increases observed during heat waves, and the precipitation deficits before and during heat waves.