Evaluation of various boar taint detection methods

The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of various boar taint detection methods, measure the relationship between them and identify possible points of improvement for boar taint detection. The methods used to evaluate boar taint in the carcasses of 448 entire male pigs and 17 barrows were the hot iron method (n = 442), a standardised (n = 323) and home (n = 58) consumer meat-evaluation panel, an expert panel assessment of meat and fat (n = 464) and laboratory analysis of skatole, androstenone and indole in fat (n = 464). The axillary odour of a number of slaughtered entire male pigs was also investigated (n = 231). As correlation coefficients were generally weak, a positive result for one of these detection methods did not per se result in a positive result for all other methods. Results of one detection method could not be generalised. The choice to use one or more detection methods deserves consideration depending on the aim of the study. In this paper, we suggest some possible improvements for evaluating boar taint with a consumer panel based on our results and experience. The home consumer evaluation was correlated with the concentration of indole (r = 0.27) but not with skatole or androstenone. We therefore recommend that lab analyses include indole testing. The hot iron method seems to be an easy and fast detection method, which yields comparable or better correlation coefficients with the other detection methods than an expert panel evaluating fat samples. However, the reliability of the hot iron method depends on the training and reliability of one or two assessors. Efforts should be made to further optimise this method by evaluating the effect of testing conditions. The axillary odour score was moderately correlated with the other detection methods (up to 0.32). More research is needed to evaluate the possibilities of axillary odour as a boar taint detection method.     

集束化管理模式在急诊危重患者院内转运的应用及效果评价

目的 探讨集束化管理模式在急诊危重患者院内转运中的应用效果.方法 选取2019年9月 ～2020年4月我院急诊科就诊的324例急诊危重患者为研究对象,按转运方式不同分为观察组和对照组各162例.观察组采用集束化管理模式转运危重患者,对照组采用传统模式转运危重患者,比较两组患者的院内转运时间、投诉率、转运意外发生率(包括...     

Woody vegetation dynamics in the tropical and subtropical Andes from 2001 to 2014: Satellite image interpretation and expert validation

The interactions between climate and land‐use change are dictating the distribution of flora and fauna and reshuffling biotic community composition around the world. Tropical mountains are particularly sensitive because they often have a high human population density, a long history of agriculture, range‐restricted species, and high‐beta diversity due to a steep elevation gradient. Here we evaluated the change in distribution of woody vegetation in the tropical Andes of South America for the period 2001–2014. For the analyses we created annual land‐cover/land‐use maps using MODIS satellite data at 250 m pixel resolution, calculated the cover of woody vegetation (trees and shrubs) in 9,274 hexagons of 115.47 km², and then determined if there was a statistically significant (p < 0.05) 14 year linear trend (positive—forest gain, negative—forest loss) within each hexagon. Of the 1,308 hexagons with significant trends, 36.6% (n = 479) lost forests and 63.4% (n = 829) gained forests. We estimated an overall net gain of ~500,000 ha in woody vegetation. Forest loss dominated the 1,000–1,499 m elevation zone and forest gain dominated above 1,500 m. The most important transitions were forest loss at lower elevations for pastures and croplands, forest gain in abandoned pastures and cropland in mid‐elevation areas, and shrub encroachment into highland grasslands. Expert validation confirmed the observed trends, but some areas of apparent forest gain were associated with new shade coffee, pine, or eucalypt plantations. In addition, after controlling for elevation and country, forest gain was associated with a decline in the rural population. Although we document an overall gain in forest cover, the recent reversal of forest gains in Colombia demonstrates that these coupled natural‐human systems are highly dynamic and there is an urgent need of a regional real‐time land‐use, biodiversity, and ecosystem services monitoring network.     

Development and application of an expert system for analysis of the functional continuum of regulatory peptides

An expert computer system was developed to analyze the effects of regulatory peptides (RPs) and some other biologically active compounds. The database includes information on their structures and physiological and inductive effects taking into account the method of administration, doses, and types of organisms. The developed method of vector representation of RP effects and the software modules provide for the evaluation of the role of single RPs and their combinations in the regulatory system of organism. The expert system was used for solving the following tasks: (1) an analysis of the structural and functional organization of the RP continuum and a search for effective RP combinations regulating the levels of anxiety, depression, cognitive processes, etc; (2) design of a network of complicated cross inductive connections of major members of RP families; and (3) an analysis of the peculiar features of functioning of numerous internal reward factors.     

Consensus weightings of evidence for inferring breeding success in broad‐scale bird studies

Abstract Ideally, one seeks to assess landscapes for their capacity to sustain viable populations of all local species. This applies to much‐affected landscapes and also to restored landscapes. In most circumstances, it is prohibitive to conduct full demographic and dispersal studies of many species of birds (or other taxa) at many sites, which typifies many conservation problems. Here I report upon outcomes of elicitations of views of expert ornithologists on how they would weight a range of breeding behaviours and evidence for success of breeding in remnants or replanted sites. Such consensus results potentially could be used by workers to assess how alternative conservation and management actions affect breeding success. While the data are tailored specifically to Australian woodland birds, the method can be adapted easily for other taxa and habitats. I also summarize some of the experts' main caveats on weightings.     

Evaluating the accuracy and calibration of expert predictions under uncertainty: predicting the outcomes of ecological research

Aim Expert knowledge routinely informs ecological research and decision‐making. Its reliability is often questioned, but is rarely subject to empirical testing and validation. We investigate the ability of experts to make quantitative predictions of variables for which the answers are known. Location Global. Methods Experts in four ecological subfields were asked to make predictions about the outcomes of scientific studies, in the form of unpublished (in press) journal articles, based on information in the article introduction and methods sections. Estimates from students were elicited for one case study for comparison. For each variable, participants assessed a lower and upper bound, best guess and level of confidence that the observed value will lie within their ascribed interval. Responses were assessed for (1) accuracy: the degree to which predictions corresponded with observed experimental results, (2) informativeness: precision of the uncertainty bounds, and (3) calibration: degree to which the uncertainty bounds contained the truth as often as specified. Results Expert responses were found to be overconfident, specifying 80% confidence intervals that captured the truth only 49–65% of the time. In contrast, student 80% intervals captured the truth 76% of the time, displaying close to perfect calibration. Best estimates from experts were on average more accurate than those from students. The best students outperformed the worst experts. No consistent relationships were observed between performance and years of experience, publication record or self‐assessment of expertise. Main conclusions Experts possess valuable knowledge but may require training to communicate this knowledge accurately. Expert status is a poor guide to good performance. In the absence of training and information on past performance, simple averages of expert responses provide a robust counter to individual variation in performance.     

Estimating the influence of land management change on weed invasion potential using expert knowledge

Aim To develop and test a general framework for estimating weed invasion potential (suitability and susceptibility) that utilized expert knowledge of dispersal, establishment and persistence and considered the influence of land management. Location The semi‐arid Desert Channels Region of Queensland, Australia (476,000 km²). Methods We developed a general framework that integrated knowledge and empirical data of the environmental and land management variables influencing the dispersal, establishment and persistence of the invasive shrub parkinsonia (Parkinsonia aculeata) using a Bayesian network linked to a Geographic Information System (GIS). We evaluated the influence of different land management scenarios on landscape suitability for parkinsonia. Model performance was assessed by comparing predicted landscape suitability with mapped parkinsonia locations and estimated parkinsonia density. Results Our predictions of moderate to high suitability corresponded reasonably well with mapped parkinsonia locations (71% match) and areas of common to abundant estimated density (92% match). They also suggested that parkinsonia has not reached its potential distribution within the study region. Under current land management conditions, 77,000 km² of land was found to be highly or moderately suitable for parkinsonia. Scenario analysis indicated that maintaining moderate herbaceous ground cover levels, and using sheep to browse juvenile parkinsonia, reduced the predicted moderate to high suitability area to 27,000 km², offering a potential management strategy for limiting parkinsonia invasion. Main conclusions Weed invasion potential can be reasonably estimated using expert knowledge of dispersal, establishment and persistence, integrated using a Bayesian network linked to a GIS. This modelling approach can be an alternative to process‐based and phenomenological modelling, which can be problematic for modelling new and emerging weed invasions, particularly where data are patchy. The modelling approach also allows the influence of land management change on invasion potential to be investigated through scenario analysis.