Monitoring in the Context of Structured Decision-Making and Adaptive Management

Abstract: In a natural resource management setting, monitoring is a crucial component of an informed process for making decisions, and monitoring design should be driven by the decision context and associated uncertainties. Monitoring itself can play ≥3 roles. First, it is important for state-dependent decision-making, as when managers need to know the system state before deciding on the appropriate course of action during the ensuing management cycle. Second, monitoring is critical for evaluating the effectiveness of management actions relative to objectives. Third, in an adaptive management setting, monitoring provides the feedback loop for learning about the system; learning is sought not for its own sake but primarily to better achieve management objectives. In this case, monitoring should be designed to reduce the critical uncertainties in models of the managed system. The United States Geological Survey and United States Fish and Wildlife Service are conducting a large-scale management experiment on 23 National Wildlife Refuges across the Northeast and Midwest Regions. The primary management objective is to provide habitat for migratory waterbirds, particularly during migration, using water-level manipulations in managed wetlands. Key uncertainties are related to the potential trade-offs created by management for a specific waterbird guild (e.g., migratory shorebirds) and the response of waterbirds, plant communities, and invertebrates to specific experimental hydroperiods. We reviewed the monitoring program associated with this study, and the ways that specific observations fill ≥1 of the roles identified above. We used observations from our monitoring to improve state-dependent decisions to control undesired plants, to evaluate management performance relative to shallow-water habitat objectives, and to evaluate potential trade-offs between waterfowl and shorebird habitat management. With limited staff and budgets, management agencies need efficient monitoring programs that are used for decision-making, not comprehensive studies that elucidate all manner of ecological relationships.     

Experimental evolution of field populations of Daphnia magna in response to parasite treatment

Although there is little doubt that hosts evolve to reduce parasite damage, little is known about the evolutionary time scale on which host populations may adapt under natural conditions. Here we study the effects of selection by the microsporidian parasite Octosporea bayeri on populations of Daphnia magna. In a field study, we infected replicated populations of D. magna with the parasite, leaving control populations uninfected. After two summer seasons of experimental evolution (about 15 generations), the genetic composition of infected host populations differed significantly from the control populations. Experiments revealed that hosts from the populations that had evolved with the parasite had lower mortality on exposure to parasite spores and a higher competitive ability than hosts that had evolved without the parasite. In contrast, the susceptibility of the two treatment groups to another parasite, the bacterium Pasteuria ramosa, which was not present during experimental evolution of the populations, did not differ. Fitness assays in the absence of parasites revealed a higher fitness for the control populations, but only under low population density with high resource availability. Overall, our results show that, under natural conditions, Daphnia populations are able to adapt rapidly to the prevailing conditions and that this evolutionary change is specific to the environment.     

Involvement of Sema4A in the progression of experimental autoimmune myocarditis

Dilated cardiomyopathy often results from autoimmunity triggered by microbial infections during myocarditis. However, it remains unclear how immunological disorders are implicated in pathogenesis of autoimmune myocarditis. Here, we demonstrated that Sema4A, a class IV semaphorin, plays key roles in experimental autoimmune myocarditis (EAM). Dendritic cells pulsed with myosin heavy chain-α peptides induced severe myocarditis in wild-type mice, but not in Sema4A-deficient mice. In adoptive transfer experiments, CD4⁺ T-cells from wild-type mice induced severe myocarditis, while CD4⁺ T-cells from Sema4A-deficient mice exhibited considerably attenuated myocarditis. Our results indicated that Sema4A is critically involved in EAM by regulating differentiation of T-cells.     

Practical identifiability of biokinetic parameters of a model describing two-step nitrification in biofilms

Parameter estimation and model calibration are key problems in the application of biofilm models in engineering practice, where a large number of model parameters need to be determined usually based on experimental data with only limited information content. In this article, identifiability of biokinetic parameters of a biofilm model describing two-step nitrification was evaluated based solely on bulk phase measurements of ammonium, nitrite, and nitrate. In addition to evaluating the impact of experimental conditions and available measurements, the influence of mass transport limitation within the biofilm and the initial parameter values on identifiability of biokinetic parameters was evaluated. Selection of parameters for identifiability analysis was based on global mean sensitivities while parameter identifiability was analyzed using local sensitivity functions. At most, four of the six most sensitive biokinetic parameters were identifiable from results of batch experiments at bulk phase dissolved oxygen concentrations of 0.8 or 5 mg O(2)/L. High linear dependences between the parameters of the subsets (KO2,AOB,muAOB) and (KO2,NOB,muNOB) resulted in reduced identifiability. Mass transport limitation within the biofilm did not influence the number of identifiable parameters but, in fact, decreased collinearity between parameters, especially for parameters that are otherwise correlated (e.g., muAOB) and KO2,AOB, or muNOB and KO2,NOB). The choice of the initial parameter values had a significant impact on the identifiability of two parameter subsets, both including the parameters muAOB and KO2,AOB. Parameter subsets that did not include the subsets muAOB and KO2,AOB or muNOB and KO2,NOB were clearly identifiable independently of the choice of the initial parameter values.     

Dynamic and complex microclimate responses to warming and grazing manipulations

Synthesis efforts that identify patterns of ecosystem response to a suite of warming manipulations can make important contributions to climate change science. However, cross‐study comparisons are impeded by the paucity of detailed analyses of how passive warming and other manipulations affect microclimate. Here we document the independent and combined effects of a common passive warming manipulation, open‐top chambers (OTCs), and a simulated widespread land use, clipping, on microclimate on the Tibetan Plateau. OTCs consistently elevated growing season averaged mean daily air temperature by 1.0–2.0°C, maximum daily air temperature by 2.1–7.3°C and the diurnal air temperature range by 1.9–6.5°C, with mixed effects on minimum daily air temperature, and mean daily soil temperature and moisture. These OTC effects on microclimate differ from reported effects of a common active warming method, infrared heating, which has more consistent effects on soil than on air temperature. There were significant interannual and intragrowing season differences in OTC effects on microclimate. For example, while OTCs had mixed effects on growing season averaged soil temperatures, OTCs consistently elevated soil temperature by approximately 1.0°C early in the growing season. Nonadditive interactions between OTCs and clipping were also present: OTCs in clipped plots generally elevated air and soil temperatures more than OTCs in nonclipped plots. Moreover, site factors dynamically interacted with microclimate and with the efficacy of the OTC manipulations. These findings highlight the need to understand differential microclimate effects between warming methods, within warming method across ecosystem sites, within warming method crossed with other treatments, and within sites over various timescales. Methods, sites and scales are potential explanatory variables and covariables in climate warming experiments. Consideration of this variability among and between experimental warming studies will lead to greater understanding and better prediction of ecosystem response to anthropogenic climate warming.     

Activity of Calpain in the Guinea Pig Brain under Conditions of Experimental Allergic Encephalomyelitis

We studied the activity of calpain in the brain tissue of guinea pigs at different stages of the development of experimental allergic encephalomyelitis (EAE). Eleven days after inoculation of a mixture containing myelin main protein into the experimental animals, we observed a drop in the calpain activity (on average, by 27% with respect to the control), whereas on the 20th and 27th days the activity of the enzyme under study exceeded the norm (by 12%). The calpain/calpastatin ratio also altered at the different stages of development of EAE: the amount of calpastatin increased significantly on the 11th and 27th days, while on the 20th day the level of calpastatin was close to that typical of the control animals. Therefore, we found that the state of calpain/calpastatin system in the guinea pig brain demonstrates some correlation with the dynamics of development of EAE.     

Calcium imaging of epileptiform events with single‐cell resolution

Epileptic discharges propagate through apparently normal circuits, although it is still unclear how this recruitment takes place. To understand the role of different classes of neurons in neocortical epilepsy, we have developed a novel imaging assay that detects which neurons participate in epileptiform discharges. Using calcium imaging of neuronal populations during bicuculline‐induced spontaneous epileptiform events in slices from juvenile mouse somatosensory cortex, we find that fast calcium transients correlate with epileptiform field potentials and intracellular depolarizing shifts and can be used as an optical signature that a given neuron has participated in an epileptiform event. Our results demonstrate a novel method to characterize epileptiform events with single‐cell resolution. In addition, our data are consistent with an important role for layer 5 in generating neocortical seizures and indicate that subgroups of neurons are particularly prone to epileptiform recruitment. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. J Neurobiol 48: 215–227, 2001     

Prediction of MHC Class I Binding Peptides by a Query Learning Algorithm Based on Hidden Markov Models

A query learning algorithm based on hidden Markov models (HMMs) isdeveloped to design experiments for string analysis and prediction of MHCclass I binding peptides. Query learning is introduced to aim at reducingthe number of peptide binding data for training of HMMs. A multiple numberof HMMs, which will collectively serve as a committee, are trained withbinding data and used for prediction in real-number values. The universeof peptides is randomly sampled and subjected to judgement by the HMMs.Peptides whose prediction is least consistent among committee HMMs aretested by experiment. By iterating the feedback cycle of computationalanalysis and experiment the most wanted information is effectivelyextracted. After 7 rounds of active learning with 181 peptides in all,predictive performance of the algorithm surpassed the so far bestperforming matrix based prediction. Moreover, by combining the bothmethods binder peptides (log Kd < -6) could be predicted with84% accuracy. Parameter distribution of the HMMs that can be inspectedvisually after training further offers a glimpse of dynamic specificity ofthe MHC molecules.     

Étude électrophorétique de l'hybride expérimental entre Papio anubis et P. cynocephalus

Hybrids between Papio anubis and P. cynocephalus occur in nature. We have studied laboratory bred hybrids, together with their backcrossed offspring. Electrophoretic experiments on the proteins, serum enzymes and erythrocytes obtained from both hybrids and parents lead to three conclusions. First, both parents and hybrids possess proteins having identical mobilities; this case is the most frequent in the 23 loci studied. Second, individual polymorphism caused by, for example, carbonic anhydrase I or transferrin in one or both parents results in the appearance of a codominant phenotype in the hybrid, when the parental components are distinguishable. Third, when other enzymes such as albumin, alkaline phosphatase, haemoglobin and the serum esterases have particular electrophoretic mobilities in the parents, then the hybrid is again codominant; a particularly interesting case among the esterases is that of pseudocholinesterase, where the paternal component is partially repressed in the hybrid. The hybrid than exhibits the phenomenon of allelic repression of at least one gene, which confirms the taxonomic position of species of the two forms of Papio studied.