Untangling associations between chironomid taxa in Neotropical streams using local and landscape filters

1. Analyses of species association have major implications for selecting indicators for freshwater biomonitoring and conservation, because they allow for the elimination of redundant information and focus on taxa that can be easily handled and identified. These analyses are particularly relevant in the debate about using speciose groups (such as the Chironomidae) as indicators in the tropics, because they require difficult and time‐consuming analysis, and their responses to environmental gradients, including anthropogenic stressors, are poorly known. 2. Our objective was to show whether chironomid assemblages in Neotropical streams include clear associations of taxa and, if so, how well these associations could be explained by a set of models containing information from different spatial scales. For this, we formulated a priori models that allowed for the influence of local, landscape and spatial factors on chironomid taxon associations (CTA). These models represented biological hypotheses capable of explaining associations between chironomid taxa. For instance, CTA could be best explained by local variables (e.g. pH, conductivity and water temperature) or by processes acting at wider landscape scales (e.g. percentage of forest cover). 3. Biological data were taken from 61 streams in Southeastern Brazil, 47 of which were in well‐preserved regions, and 14 of which drained areas severely affected by anthropogenic activities. We adopted a model selection procedure using Akaike’s information criterion to determine the most parsimonious models for explaining CTA. 4. Applying Kendall’s coefficient of concordance, seven genera (Tanytarsus/Caladomyia, Ablabesmyia, Parametriocnemus, Pentaneura, Nanocladius, Polypedilum and Rheotanytarsus) were identified as associated taxa. The best‐supported model explained 42.6% of the total variance in the abundance of associated taxa. This model combined local and landscape environmental filters and spatial variables (which were derived from eigenfunction analysis). However, the model with local filters and spatial variables also had a good chance of being selected as the best model. 5. Standardised partial regression coefficients of local and landscape filters, including spatial variables, derived from model averaging allowed an estimation of which variables were best correlated with the abundance of associated taxa. In general, the abundance of the associated genera tended to be lower in streams characterised by a high percentage of forest cover (landscape scale), lower proportion of muddy substrata and high values of pH and conductivity (local scale). 6. Overall, our main result adds to the increasing number of studies that have indicated the importance of local and landscape variables, as well as the spatial relationships among sampling sites, for explaining aquatic insect community patterns in streams. Furthermore, our findings open new possibilities for the elimination of redundant data in the assessment of anthropogenic impacts on tropical streams.     

气候变化下中国八种梧桐属树种潜在适生区模拟

中国梧桐属（Firmiana）在世界梧桐属中占比较大,且除梧桐外其余种均为中国特有且分布范围狭窄的植物种,灭绝风险大,研究气候变化对中国梧桐属树种的影响对于维护生物多样性具有重要的意义。结合多时期第六次国际气候耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）气候变量数据和中国八种梧桐属树种的分布数据,基于R语言kuenm程序包优化的最大熵（Maxent）模型模拟分析中国八种梧桐属树种在多尺度下的潜在适生区,得出梧桐属最适宜的模拟尺度、潜在适生区的面积变化和迁移方向、梧桐属多样性保护关键区域及保护空缺。结果表明：（1）梧桐属最适宜的模拟尺度为亚洲;（2） Maxent模型的接收者操作特征曲线下面积（AUC）值均大于0.9,表明模型对梧桐属潜在适生区预测结果具有较高准确度;（3）气候变化影响下除云南梧桐（Firmiana major）外其它树种的潜在适生区都将在未来有所扩大;（4）中国八种梧桐属树种潜在适生区迁移方向主要为东西向,南北向大跨度迁移较少,纬度变化不大;（5）丹霞梧桐（Firmiana danxiaensis）的稳定潜在适生区最小;（6）中国梧桐属多样性保护关键区域主要分布于广西壮族自治区及云南、广东、海南等省区;（7）中国梧桐属多样性保护空缺区域主要分布于广西壮族自治区中部及海南省北部;（8）梧桐属多样性保护关键区域正在为人造地表所侵蚀。研究分析气候变化对中国八种梧桐属树种的影响及其潜在适生区变化、中国梧桐属多样性保护状态,可为中国梧桐属建立多样性保护廊道提供相关建议,为制定多样性保护规划及相应措施提供参考。     

Inference of Gene Flow between Species under Misspecified Models

Genomic sequence data provide a rich source of information about the history of species divergence and interspecific hybridization or introgression. Despite recent advances in genomics and statistical methods, it remains challenging to infer gene flow, and as a result, one may have to estimate introgression rates and times under misspecified models. Here we use mathematical analysis and computer simulation to examine estimation bias and issues of interpretation when the model of gene flow is misspecified in analysis of genomic datasets, for example, if introgression is assigned to the wrong lineages. In the case of two species, we establish a correspondence between the migration rate in the continuous migration model and the introgression probability in the introgression model. When gene flow occurs continuously through time but in the analysis is assumed to occur at a fixed time point, common evolutionary parameters such as species divergence times are surprisingly well estimated. However, the time of introgression tends to be estimated towards the recent end of the period of continuous gene flow. When introgression events are assigned incorrectly to the parental or daughter lineages, introgression times tend to collapse onto species divergence times, with introgression probabilities underestimated. Overall, our analyses suggest that the simple introgression model is useful for extracting information concerning between-specific gene flow and divergence even when the model may be misspecified. However, for reliable inference of gene flow it is important to include multiple samples per species, in particular, from hybridizing species.     

Mathematical model of fructan biosynthesis and polymer length distribution in plants

Background and Aims

There are many unresolved issues concerning the biochemistry of fructan biosynthesis. The aim of this paper is to address some of these by means of modelling mathematically the biochemical processes.

Methods

A model has been constructed for the step-by-step synthesis of fructan polymers. This is run until a steady state is achieved for which a polymer distribution is predicted. It is shown how qualitatively different distributions can be obtained.

Key Results

It is demonstrated how a set of experimental results on polymer distribution can by simulated by a simple parameter adjustments.

Conclusions

Mathematical modelling of fructan biosynthesis can provide a useful tool for helping elucidate the details of the biosynthetic processes.     

Proteins searching for their target on DNA by one-dimensional diffusion: overcoming the “speed-stability” paradox

The sequence dependence of DNA-protein interactions that allows proteins to find the correct reaction site also slows down the 1D diffusion of the protein along the DNA molecule, leading to the so-called “speed-stability paradox,” wherein fast diffusion along the DNA molecule is seemingly incompatible with stable targeting of the reaction site. Here, we develop diffusion-reaction models that use discrete and continuous Gaussian random 1D diffusion landscapes with or without a high-energy cut-off, and two-state models with a transition to and from a “searching” mode in which the protein diffuses rapidly without recognizing the target. We show the conditions under which such considerations lead to a predicted speed-up of the targeting process, and under which the presence of a “searching” mode in a two-state model is nearly equivalent to the existence of a high-energy cut-off in a one-state model. We also determine the conditions under which the search is either diffusion-limited or reaction-limited, and develop quantitative expressions for the rate of successful targeting as a function of the site-specific reaction rate, the roughness of the DNA-protein interaction potential, and the presence of a “searching” mode. In general, we find that a rough landscape is compatible with a fast search if the highest energy barriers can be avoided by “hopping” or by the protein transitioning to a lower-energy “searching” mode. We validate these predictions with the results of Brownian dynamics, kinetic Metropolis, and kinetic Monte Carlo simulations of the diffusion and targeting process, and apply these concepts to the case of T7 RNA polymerase searching for its target site on T7 DNA.     

Composite analysis of black duck breeding population surveys in eastern North America

Waterfowl are monitored in eastern Canada and the northeastern United States with 2 surveys: a transect survey from fixed-wing aircraft and a plot survey conducted from helicopters. The surveys vary in extent, but overlap exists in a core area of 9 strata covering portions of all provinces from Ontario east to Newfoundland. We estimated population change for American black ducks (Anas rubripes) and mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) from these surveys using a log-linear hierarchical model that accommodates differences in sample design and visibility associated with these survey methods. Using a combined analysis of the surveys based on total indicated birds, we estimate the American black duck population to be 901,700 (95% CI: 715,200–1,274,000) in 2011, with 526,900 (95% CI: 357,500–852,300) mallards in the surveyed area. Precision of estimates varies widely by species and region, with transect surveys providing less precise results than plot surveys for black ducks in areas of overlap. The combined survey analysis for black ducks in the eastern survey region produced estimates with an average yearly coefficient of variation (CV) of 12.1% for the entire area and an average CV of 6.9% in the plot survey area. Mallards, which had a more limited distribution in the region, had an average yearly CV of 22.1% over the entire region, and an average CV of 27.7% in the plot survey area. Hierarchical models provide a rich framework for analyzing and combining results from complex survey designs, providing useful spatial and temporal information on population size and change in these economically important species. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Climate oscillations and species interactions: large‐scale congruence but regional differences in the phylogeographic structures of an alpine plant and its monophagous insect

Aim To predict the fate of alpine interactions involving specialized species, using a monophagous beetle and its host plant as a case study. Location The Alps. Methods We investigated genetic structuring of the herbivorous beetle Oreina gloriosa and its specific host‐plant Peucedanum ostruthium. We used genome fingerprinting (in the insect and the plant) and sequence data (in the insect) to compare the distribution of the main gene pools in the two associated species and to estimate divergence time in the insect, a proxy for the temporal origin of the interaction. We quantified the similarity in spatial genetic structures by performing a Procrustes analysis, a tool from shape theory. Finally, we simulated recolonization of an empty space analogous to the deglaciated Alps just after ice retreat by two lineages from two species showing unbalanced dependence, to examine how timing of the recolonization process, as well as dispersal capacities of associated species, could explain the observed pattern. Results Contrasting with expectations based on their asymmetrical dependence, patterns in the beetle and plant were congruent at a large scale. Exceptions occurred at a regional scale in areas of admixture, matching known suture zones in Alpine plants. Simulations using a lattice‐based model suggested these empirical patterns arose during or soon after recolonization, long after the estimated origin of the interaction c. 0.5 million years ago. Main conclusions Species‐specific interactions are scarce in alpine habitats because glacial cycles have limited the opportunities for co‐evolution. Their fate, however, remains uncertain under climate change. Here we show that whereas most dispersal routes are paralleled at a large scale, regional incongruence implies that the destinies of the species might differ under changing climate. This may be a consequence of the host dependence of the beetle, which locally limits the establishment of dispersing insects.     

Lipopolysaccharide-induced fever alters Hering–Breuer reflex in anesthetized rats

The aim of the study was to test the hypothesis that control of breathing via Hering–Breuer reflex (HB) is influenced by lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-induced fever in rats. Animals were injected intraperitoneally with LPS and control group with an equivalent volume of saline. HB reflex was elicited by inflations of the lungs followed by occlusion of the airways under control of esophageal pressure. Duration of HB reflex (T_apnoe) was continuously reduced as body temperature rose during experiment. Compared to normothermic controls, animals with fever had significant shortening of T_apnoe at 240 min and 300 min after LPS administration. Fever was further accompanied by a reduction in the strength of HB reflex (inhibitory ratio, IR). In comparison with controls, significant decrease of IR was observed at 300 min after LPS injection. Conclusion: altered neural control of breathing demonstrated by decreased power of Hering–Breuer inflation reflex in conditions of LPS-induced fever may facilitate thermal tachypnoea and/or play a role in the origin of respiratory instability accompanying febrile response.     

Analysing covariates with spike at zero: A modified FP procedure and conceptual issues

In epidemiology and in clinical research, risk factors often have special distributions. A common situation is that a proportion of individuals have exposure zero, and among those exposed, we have some continuous distribution. We call this a ‘spike at zero’. Examples for this are smoking, duration of breastfeeding, or alcohol consumption. Furthermore, the empirical distribution of laboratory values and other measurements may have a semi‐continuous distribution as a result of the lower detection limit of the measurement. To model the dose–response function, an extension of the fractional polynomial approach was recently proposed. In this paper, we suggest a modification of the previously suggested FP procedure. We first give the theoretical justification of this modified procedure by investigating relevant distribution classes. Here, we systematically derive the theoretical shapes of dose–response curves under given distributional assumptions (normal, log normal, gamma) in the framework of a logistic regression model. Further, we check the performance of the procedure in a simulation study and compare it to the previously suggested method, and finally we illustrate the procedures with data from a case–control study on breast cancer.