Linking Forest Fire Regimes and Climate—A Historical Analysis in a Dry Inner Alpine Valley

Forest fire regimes are likely to experience considerable changes in the European Alps due to climatic changes. However, little is known about the recent regional fire history and the impact of local climate on the fire regime during the 20th century. We therefore reconstructed the fire history in a dry continental valley of the Swiss Alps (Valais) over the past 100 years based on documentary evidence, and investigated the relationship between the reconstructed fire regime and the local climatic variability. We compared the impact of temperature, precipitation, drought and dry foehn winds on fire frequency, extent of burnt area, and fire seasonality on various spatial and temporal scales. In the subalpine zone, the fire regime appears to have been mainly driven by temperature and precipitation, whereas these variables seem to have played only a secondary role in the colline–montane zones. Here, foehn winds and, probably, non-climatic factors seem to have been more important. Temperature and precipitation played a major role in shaping fire frequency and burnt area in the first half of the 20th century, but lost their importance during the second half. Our case study illustrates the occurrence of different fire regime patterns and their driving forces on small spatial scales (a few hundred square kilometers). We conclude that the strong rise in temperature over the past century has not profoundly changed the fire regime in Valais, but in the second half of the 20th century temperature was no longer a strong determinant for forest fires as compared to human activities or biomass availability in forests. Author contributions: T.Z., H.B., M.C., and M.B. conceived of or designed study; T.Z. performed research and analyzed data; T.Z., H.B., M.C., and M.B. wrote the paper.     

A phylogenetic hypothesis for Asilidae based on a total evidence analysis of morphological and DNA sequence data (Insecta: Diptera: Brachycera: Asiloidea)

An hypothesis of phylogenetic relationships of Asilidae and its constituent taxa is presented, combining morphological and DNA sequence data in a total evidence framework. It is based on 77 robber fly species, 11 Asiloidea outgroup species, 211 morphological characters of the adult fly, and approximately 7300 bp of nuclear DNA from five genes (18S and 28S rDNA, AATS, CAD, and EF-1α protein-encoding DNA). The equally weighted, simultaneous parsimony analysis under dynamic homology in POY resulted in a single most parsimonious cladogram with a cost of 27,582 (iterative pass optimization; 27,703 under regular direct optimization). Six of the 12 included subfamily taxa are recovered as monophyletic. Trigonomiminae, previously always considered as monophyletic based on morphology, is shown to be non-monophyletic. Two of the three Trigonomiminae genera, Holcocephala Jaennicke, 1867 and Rhipidocephala Hermann, 1926, group unexpectedly as the sister taxon to all other Asilidae. Laphriinae, previously seen in the latter position, is the sister group of the remaining Asilidae. Five other subfamily taxa, i.e. Brachyrhopalinae, Dasypogoninae, Stenopogoninae, Tillobromatinae, and Willistonininae, are also shown to be non-monophyletic. The phylogenetic relationships among the higher-level taxa are partly at odds with findings of a recently published morphological study based on more extensive taxon sampling. The total evidence hypothesis is considered as the most informative one, but the respective topologies from the total-evidence, morphology-only, and molecular-only analyses are compared and contrasted in order to discuss the signals from morphological versus molecular data, and to analyze whether the molecular data outcompete the fewer morphological characters. A clade Apioceridae+Mydidae is corroborated as the sister taxon to Asilidae.     

A graphical model for the evaluation of cross-transfer evidence in DNA profiles

The role of graphical models in the assessment of transfer evidence is described with particular reference to the role of cross-transfer evidence. The issues involved in the determination of factors (nodes), associations (links) and probabilities to be included are discussed. Four types of subjective probabilities are of particular interest: those for transfer, persistence and recovery; innocent acquisition; relevance; innocent presence. Examples are given to illustrate the roles of various aspects of the suspect's and victim's lifestyle and the investigation of the evidence found on the suspect and victim in assessing the probability of ultimate issue, that the suspect committed the crime.     

Efficient and robust methods for causally interpretable meta-analysis: Transporting inferences from multiple randomized trials to a target population

We present methods for causally interpretable meta-analyses that combine information from multiple randomized trials to draw causal inferences for a target population of substantive interest. We consider identifiability conditions, derive implications of the conditions for the law of the observed data, and obtain identification results for transporting causal inferences from a collection of independent randomized trials to a new target population in which experimental data may not be available. We propose an estimator for the potential outcome mean in the target population under each treatment studied in the trials. The estimator uses covariate, treatment, and outcome data from the collection of trials, but only covariate data from the target population sample. We show that it is doubly robust in the sense that it is consistent and asymptotically normal when at least one of the models it relies on is correctly specified. We study the finite sample properties of the estimator in simulation studies and demonstrate its implementation using data from a multicenter randomized trial.     

猫科动物的分类——分子系统学框架和化石证据

猫科动物的演化关系传统上一直是富有争议的,这很大程度上造成了猫科在属一级的分类众说纷纭。新兴的分子生物学技术为我们理解猫科动物的系统发育提供了新的视角,本文回顾了近些年来的猫科分子系统学研究,以Johnson等（2006）和李钢等（2016）的研究结果为核心,同时结合确切的化石记录进行佐证,推断了猫科的演化历史。我们发现,分子系统学提出的现代猫科动物于晚中新世开始适应辐射、先后分化出了8个支系等观点,与化石证据基本吻合;但是分子系统学对部分支系起源的推断与化石证据存在差异。结合化石记录的分析,我们认为现代猫科8个支系中除狞猫支系和虎猫支系以外,其余均最有可能起源于亚洲,现代猫科动物在演化过程中至少经历了30次洲际迁徙。结合演化历史和形态学研究,我们遵循邱占祥等（2004）的观点,将现存的猫科动物全部归于猫亚科（Felinae）,并将现代猫亚科动物划分为15个属40个物种。     

In a rough spot: Declines in Arthroleptella rugosa calling densities are explained by invasive pine trees

Basing conservation interventions on evidence is important for justifying their associated cost and gauging their effectiveness. For amphibians, the number of studies available to support conservation action plans is limited. Here, we sought to determine the effect of invasive pine trees on the calling densities of a Critically Endangered frog species, endemic to the Western Cape province in South Africa. The Rough Moss frog, Arthroleptella rugosa, is an anuran restricted to a small patch of fire-driven fynbos habitat prone to invasion by Cluster Pines, Pinus pinaster. We use acoustic spatially explicit capture–recapture methods to estimate frog densities at multiple sites (n = 12) over ten years. Sites were classified as invaded or uninvaded by P. pinaster, and this information, along with the time since the last fire, were used as explanatory variables for frog density in a generalized linear mixed model. Frog densities were found to be significantly affected by P. pinaster invasion status. At invaded sites, there was a negative relationship between call densities and time since fire, while at uninvaded sites the same relationship was positive. These results confirm previous suggestions that invasive pine trees cause population declines in A. rugosa. Our findings can be used to support conservation interventions for A. rugosa, specifically the use of fire in an adaptive management context to control pine invasion across its range.     

Naturalism, evidence and creationism: The case of Phillip Johnson

Phillip Johnson claims that Creationism is a better explanation of the existence and characteristics of biological species than is evolutionary theory. He argues that the only reason biologists do not recognize that Creationist's negative arguments against Darwinism have proven this is that they are wedded to a biased ideological philosophy —Naturalism — which dogmatically denies the possibility of an intervening creative god. However, Johnson fails to distinguish Ontological Naturalism from Methodological Naturalism. Science makes use of the latter and I show how it is not dogmatic but follows from sound requirements for empirical evidential testing. Furthermore, Johnson has no serious alternative type of positive evidence to offer for Creationism, and purely negative argumentation, despite his attempt to legitimate it, will not suffice.     

Evidence‐based restoration in the Anthropocene—from acting with purpose to acting for impact

The recognition that we are in the distinct new epoch of the Anthropocene suggests the necessity for ecological restoration to play a substantial role in repairing the Earth's damaged ecosystems. Moreover, the precious yet limited resources devoted to restoration need to be used wisely. To do so, we call for the ecological restoration community to embrace the concept of evidence‐based restoration. Evidence‐based restoration involves the use of rigorous, repeatable, and transparent methods (i.e. systematic reviews) to identify and amass relevant knowledge sources, critically evaluate the science, and synthesize the credible science to yield robust policy and/or management advice needed to restore the Earth's ecosystems. There are now several examples of restoration‐relevant systematic reviews that have identified instances where restoration is entirely ineffective. Systematic reviews also serve as a tool to identify the knowledge gaps and the type of science needed (e.g. repeatable, appropriate replication, use of controls) to improve the evidence base. The restoration community, including both scientists and practitioners, needs to make evidence‐based restoration a reality so that we can move from best intentions and acting with so‐called “purpose” to acting for meaningful impact. Doing so has the potential to serve as a rallying point for reframing the Anthropocene as a so‐called “good” epoch.     

PENGUINS,PETRELS, AND PARSIMONY: DOES CLADISTIC ANALYSIS OF BEHAVIOR REFLECT SEABIRD PHYLOGENY?

Whether or not behavior accurately reflects evolutionary relationships (phylogeny) has been hotly debated by ethologists and comparative psychologists. Previous studies attempting to resolve this question have generally lacked a quantitative, phylogenetic approach. In this study we used behavior and life-history (BLH) information (72 characters) to generate phylogenetic trees for 18 seabird species (albatrosses, petrels, and penguins). We compared these trees with trees obtained from isozyme electrophoretic analysis of blood proteins (15 loci and 98 electromorphs) and partial mitochondrial 12S ribosomal DNA sequences (381 base pairs). Cladistic analysis of the BLH data set generated three MP trees (tree length = 243, CI = 0.52, RI = 0.57) with significant cladistic structure. The BLH characters were classified into four types (foraging, agonistic, reproductive, and life history) and levels of homoplasy for each type were measured. No significant differences were found among these categories. The BLH trees were shown to be significantly more congruent with the electrophoretic and 12S sequence trees than expected by chance. This indicates that seabird BLH data contains phylogenetic signal. Areas of incongruence between BLH trees and a phylogeny generated by combining the data sets were predicted to result from ecological constraints that did not covary with phylogeny. These predictions were supported by the results of a concentrated changes test. This study found that this BLH data set was no more homoplasious than molecular data and that BLH trees were significantly congruent with molecular trees.     

Assessment of available anatomical characters for linking living mammals to fossil taxa in phylogenetic analyses

Analyses of living and fossil taxa are crucial for understanding biodiversity through time. The total evidence method allows living and fossil taxa to be combined in phylogenies, using molecular data for living taxa and morphological data for living and fossil taxa. With this method, substantial overlap of coded anatomical characters among living and fossil taxa is vital for accurately inferring topology. However, although molecular data for living species are widely available, scientists generating morphological data mainly focus on fossils. Therefore, there are fewer coded anatomical characters in living taxa, even in well-studied groups such as mammals. We investigated the number of coded anatomical characters available in phylogenetic matrices for living mammals and how these were phylogenetically distributed across orders. Eleven of 28 mammalian orders have less than 25% species with available characters; this has implications for the accurate placement of fossils, although the issue is less pronounced at higher taxonomic levels. In most orders, species with available characters are randomly distributed across the phylogeny, which may reduce the impact of the problem. We suggest that increased morphological data collection efforts for living taxa are needed to produce accurate total evidence phylogenies.