Habitat management as a generalized tool to boost European rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus populations in the Iberian Peninsula: a cost‐effectiveness analysis

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Irrational time allocation in decision-making

Time is an extremely valuable resource but little is known about the efficiency of time allocation in decision-making. Empirical evidence suggests that in many ecologically relevant situations, decision difficulty and the relative reward from making a correct choice, compared to an incorrect one, are inversely linked, implying that it is optimal to use relatively less time for difficult choice problems. This applies, in particular, to value-based choices, in which the relative reward from choosing the higher valued item shrinks as the values of the other options get closer to the best option and are thus more difficult to discriminate. Here, we experimentally show that people behave sub-optimally in such contexts. They do not respond to incentives that favour the allocation of time to choice problems in which the relative reward for choosing the best option is high; instead they spend too much time on problems in which the reward difference between the options is low. We demonstrate this by showing that it is possible to improve subjects'' time allocation with a simple intervention that cuts them off when their decisions take too long. Thus, we provide a novel form of evidence that organisms systematically spend their valuable time in an inefficient way, and simultaneously offer a potential solution to the problem.     

Linking Forest Fire Regimes and Climate—A Historical Analysis in a Dry Inner Alpine Valley

Forest fire regimes are likely to experience considerable changes in the European Alps due to climatic changes. However, little is known about the recent regional fire history and the impact of local climate on the fire regime during the 20th century. We therefore reconstructed the fire history in a dry continental valley of the Swiss Alps (Valais) over the past 100 years based on documentary evidence, and investigated the relationship between the reconstructed fire regime and the local climatic variability. We compared the impact of temperature, precipitation, drought and dry foehn winds on fire frequency, extent of burnt area, and fire seasonality on various spatial and temporal scales. In the subalpine zone, the fire regime appears to have been mainly driven by temperature and precipitation, whereas these variables seem to have played only a secondary role in the colline–montane zones. Here, foehn winds and, probably, non-climatic factors seem to have been more important. Temperature and precipitation played a major role in shaping fire frequency and burnt area in the first half of the 20th century, but lost their importance during the second half. Our case study illustrates the occurrence of different fire regime patterns and their driving forces on small spatial scales (a few hundred square kilometers). We conclude that the strong rise in temperature over the past century has not profoundly changed the fire regime in Valais, but in the second half of the 20th century temperature was no longer a strong determinant for forest fires as compared to human activities or biomass availability in forests. Author contributions: T.Z., H.B., M.C., and M.B. conceived of or designed study; T.Z. performed research and analyzed data; T.Z., H.B., M.C., and M.B. wrote the paper.     

A phylogenetic hypothesis for Asilidae based on a total evidence analysis of morphological and DNA sequence data (Insecta: Diptera: Brachycera: Asiloidea)

An hypothesis of phylogenetic relationships of Asilidae and its constituent taxa is presented, combining morphological and DNA sequence data in a total evidence framework. It is based on 77 robber fly species, 11 Asiloidea outgroup species, 211 morphological characters of the adult fly, and approximately 7300 bp of nuclear DNA from five genes (18S and 28S rDNA, AATS, CAD, and EF-1α protein-encoding DNA). The equally weighted, simultaneous parsimony analysis under dynamic homology in POY resulted in a single most parsimonious cladogram with a cost of 27,582 (iterative pass optimization; 27,703 under regular direct optimization). Six of the 12 included subfamily taxa are recovered as monophyletic. Trigonomiminae, previously always considered as monophyletic based on morphology, is shown to be non-monophyletic. Two of the three Trigonomiminae genera, Holcocephala Jaennicke, 1867 and Rhipidocephala Hermann, 1926, group unexpectedly as the sister taxon to all other Asilidae. Laphriinae, previously seen in the latter position, is the sister group of the remaining Asilidae. Five other subfamily taxa, i.e. Brachyrhopalinae, Dasypogoninae, Stenopogoninae, Tillobromatinae, and Willistonininae, are also shown to be non-monophyletic. The phylogenetic relationships among the higher-level taxa are partly at odds with findings of a recently published morphological study based on more extensive taxon sampling. The total evidence hypothesis is considered as the most informative one, but the respective topologies from the total-evidence, morphology-only, and molecular-only analyses are compared and contrasted in order to discuss the signals from morphological versus molecular data, and to analyze whether the molecular data outcompete the fewer morphological characters. A clade Apioceridae+Mydidae is corroborated as the sister taxon to Asilidae.     

Archaeobotany of capers (Capparis) (Capparaceae)

The origins of capers, their use and cultivation are discussed. Capers seeds and charcoal are often recovered from archaeological sites of the Mediterranean and West Asia. These are referred to as C. Spinosa L. This is mostly a group of cultivars restricted to localities surrounding the Western Mediterranean and some places in the Eastern Mediterranean. Identification of the findings is discussed in terms of seed morphology, present distribution and ancient uses of C. aegyptia Lam., C. sicula Veill., C. cartilaginea Decne, C. orientalis Veill., C. decidua (Forssk.) Edgew. and other species. Citations of Capparis in early Rabbinic, Mesopotamian and Greco-Roman texts are presented. Received June 3, 2002 / Accepted October 8, 2002 Correspondence to: D. Rivera     

A Decision Making Framework for Sediment Assessment Developed for the Great Lakes

A rule-based, weight-of-evidence approach for assessing contaminated sediment on a site-by-site basis in the Laurentian Great Lakes is described. Information from four lines of evidence—surficial sediment chemistry, laboratory toxicity, invertebrate community structure and invertebrate tissue biomagnification—is integrated within each line to produce a pass (‘?’) or fail (‘+’) conclusion, then combined across lines resulting in one of 16 outcome scenarios. For each scenario, the current status of the site, interpretation, and management recommendations are given. Management recommendation(s) can range from no action to risk management required (9 of the 16 scenarios). Within each line of evidence, the strength of each response can also be ranked (e.g., score of 1 to 4), providing managers with more information to aid decision options. Other issues that influence scientific management recommendations include site stability, subsurface contamination and spatial extent of effects. The decision framework is intended to be transparent, comprehensive (incorporating exposure, effect, weight-of-evidence, and risk), and minimally uncertain.     

Phylogenetic Relationships of Extinct Cetartiodactyls: Results of Simultaneous Analyses of Molecular, Morphological, and Stratigraphic Data

Although some recent morphological and molecular studies agree that Cetacea is closely related to Hippopotamidae, there is little consensus on the phylogeny within Cetartiodactyla. We addressed this problem by conducting two analyses: (1) a simultaneous cladistic analysis of intrinsic data (morphology and molecules) and (2) a stratocladistic analysis, which included morphological, molecular, and stratigraphic data. Unlike previous simultaneous analyses, we had the opportunity to include data from the recently described hindlimbs of protocetid and pakicetid cetaceans. Our intrinsic dataset includes 73 taxa scored for 8,229 informative characters, of which 208 are morphological and 8,021 molecular. Both analyses supported the exclusion of Mesonychia from Cetartiodactyla and a close phylogenetic relationship between Hippopotamidae and Cetacea. Many polytomies in the strict consensus of the most parsimonious trees for the intrinsic dataset can be attributed to differing positions for Raoellidae, which in some trees is the sister-group to Cetacea. Pruning Raoellidae and 18 other taxa from all most parsimonious produced a fully resolved agreement subtree, which indicates that the Old World taxa Cebochoerus and Mixtotherium are successive stem taxa to Whippomorpha (i.e., Cetacea + Hippopotamidae). The main result of adding stratigraphic information to the intrinsic dataset was that we found fewer most parsimonious trees, which in most respects were congruent with a subset of the shortest trees for the intrinsic dataset. Our stratocladistic analysis supports species of Diacodexis as the most basal cetartiodactyls, a clade of suiform cetartiodactyls, a monophyletic Tylopoda that includes Protoceratidae, and a monophyletic Carnivora. We were unable to identify any pre-Miocene stem taxa to Hippopotamidae, thus its ghost lineage is still 39 million years long. The relatively low Bremer support for many nodes in our trees indicates that our phylogenetic hypotheses should be subjected to further testing.     

On the Even Greater Need for Precaution Under Global Change

The greater the potential for disastrous, large-scale, or catastrophic impacts on health, the greater the case for precaution. The imperative for precautionary action, critical also for downstream determinants of health, is at least as compelling where macro-level concerns about the sustainability of life on Earth are at issue. In this context, I propose that a higher threshold of uncertainty is needed where large-scale harms to health and well-being are possible. Initial efforts must focus on the training of researchers and risk managers for competencies in complexity, and in systems approaches to transdisciplinary enquiry. Revisiting the intent behind Bradford Hill on causation is an essential first step. Focus on the more proximate causes of diseases, such as those related either to occupational exposures or to more downstream environmental exposures, is left to others in this collection.     

Weight of the Evidence Evaluation of Low-Dose Reproductive and Developmental Effects of Bisphenol A

A panel convened by the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis (HCRA) evaluated the weight of evidence for potential developmental and reproductive toxicity of bisphenol A (BPA, CASRN 80-05-7) in animals at doses well below the Lowest Observed Adverse Effect Level (LOAEL) of 50 mg/kg-day previously identified by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) and even US EPA's reference dose (RfD) of 0.05 mg/kg-day. The effects are hypothesized to occur through an endocrine-modulating mode of action, specifically through estrogen receptors. The panel focused on potential male reproductive effects but also examined other endpoints possibly associated with hormone-like effects. The review considered studies published through April 2002. A formal deliberation framework focused on consistency, generalizability, and biological plausibility. The panel found no consistent affirmative evidence of low-dose BPA effects for any endpoint. Inconsistent responses across rodent species and strains made generalizability of low-dose BPA effects questionable. Lack of adverse effects in two multiple-generation reproductive and developmental studies casts doubt on suggestions of significant physiological or functional impairment. The panel was concerned about generalization of non-oral administration results to oral exposures. Differences in the pattern of BPA responses compared to estradiol or diethylstilbestrol (DES) cast doubt on estrogenicity as a low-dose mechanism of action for BPA. Finally, there is indirect evidence that humans may be less sensitive to possible estrogenic effects from BPA exposure due to pharmacodynamic factors. The panel recommended replication of existing studies under carefully controlled conditions and further study of BPA's pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics. The study was funded by a grant from the American Plastics Council.