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91.
Abstract Mulberry thrips Pseudodendrothrips mori (Niwa, 1908) is a major pest of mulberry trees recorded from different sericultural regions of the world. The thrips infestation affects the qualitative and quantitative characters of mulberry leaf, by direct feeding damage to leaves and the ingestion of sap, which in turn affects the silkworm cocoon crop. This is most harmful in dry climates and seasons when heavily attacked plants lose moisture heavily. Under these conditions infestation can seriously deplete yields. The seasonal population fluctuation and the degree of damage caused to the host plant are influenced by various environmental factors including climate, host-plant variety, topography, soil type, and management regimes. This article attempts to review all available documents on mulberry thrips and to discuss the practical approaches for best control of this pest.  相似文献   
92.
Managing the pattern of forest harvest: lessons from wildfire   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Managing forests for sustainable use requires that both the biological diversity of the forests and a viable forest industry be maintained. A current approach towards maintaining biological diversity is to pattern forest management practices after those of natural disturbance events. This paradigm hypothesizes that ecological processes will be maintained best where active management approximates natural disturbance events. The forest management model now used in most sub-boreal and boreal forests calls for regularly dispersed clearcuts no greater than 60–100 ha in size. However, the spatial characteristics of the landscape produced by this model are distinctly different from the historic pattern generated by wildfire, which was heretofore the dominant stand-replacing process in these forests. Wildfire creates a more complex landscape spatial pattern with greater range in patch size and more irregular disturbance boundaries. Individual wildfires are often over 500 ha but leave patches of unburned forest within them. The combination of these attributes is not present in recent clearcuts. Allowing a proportion of larger (i.e.>500ha) harvest units may provide distinct economic advantages that could outweight the opportunity costs of leaving some patches of forest behind. For the forest type examined, further evaluation of modelling forest harvest patterns more closely after the patterns created by wildfire is required as it may achieve a good balance and strike a suitable compromise between certain ecological and economic objectives of sustainable development.  相似文献   
93.
Existing risk assessment procedures for carcinogens are intended to be “conservative” in the uncertainty dimension—giving estimates that are expected to be higher than true risks for typical people. However, these procedures do not consider the likely variability in susceptibility among individual people. This paper updates previous estimates of the likely extent of this variability for metabolically activated, genetically-acting carcinogens based on recent information on human interindividual variability in metabolic activation, detoxification, and DNA repair. The resulting expected skewness of cancer risk distributions is estimated using Monte Carlo simulations of both variability and uncertainty.

Some risk management implications are:

  1. When evaluating the fairness of a particular risk distribution, managers need to gain familiarity with a three-dimensional characterization—X level of risk, for the Yth percentile individual (addressing variability) with Z degree of confidence (addressing uncertainty).

  2. To the extent that variability distributions are skewed (e.g., with a long tail extending to high values) population mean risks will tend to exceed risks for median individuals. Together with the skewness in uncertainty distributions, this implies that “expected value” estimates of aggregate population risks—the estimates of interest for cost benefit analyses—are likely to be closer to traditional upper confidence limit risk estimates than has often been assumed in the past.

 

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