The asymptotic final size distribution of reducible multitype Reed-Frost processes

The asymptotic final size distribution of a multitype Reed-Frost process, a chain-binomial model for the spread of infection in a finite, closed multitype population, is derived in the case of reducible contact pattern between types. The results are obtained using techniques developed for the irreducible case.     

Simple Epidemic Models with Positive Latent Period

This paper deals with two types of simple epidemic models, namely, deterministic and stochastic wherein the latent period is assumed to be positive. In the deterministic epidemic model, the distributions of susceptibles, inactive infectives, active infectives and that of epidemic curve which gives the rate at which new infections take place have been obtained. The expression for the expected time of the entire epidemic has been derived. Also the partial differential equation for the moment generating function of the proportion of susceptibles in the population is established. In the end, we have studied a stochastic approach of the system.     

A competitive exclusion principle for pathogen virulence

For a modified Anderson and May model of host parasite dynamics it is shown that infections of different levels of virulence die out asymptotically except those that optimize the basic reproductive rate of the causative parasite. The result holds under the assumption that infection with one strain of parasite precludes additional infections with other strains. Technically, the model includes an environmental carrying capacity for the host. A threshold condition is derived which decides whether or not the parasites persist in the host population.Supported by a Heisenberg scholarship of Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft     

The prognostic impact of tumour NSD2 expression in advanced prostate cancer

Abstract

Purpose: To assess the prognostic significance of the nuclear receptor binding SET protein 2 (NSD2), a co-activator of the NFkB-pathway, on tumour progression in patients with advanced prostate cancer (PCa).

Methods: We retrospectively assessed NSD2 expression in 53 patients with metastatic and castration-resistant PCa. Immunohistochemical staining for NSD2 was carried out on specimen obtained from palliative resection of the prostate. Univariable and multivariable analyses were performed to assess the association between NSD2 expression and PCa progression.

Results: Of the 53 patients, 41 had castration-resistant PCa and 48 men had metastases at time of tissue acquisition. NSD2 expression was increased in tumour specimen from 42 patients (79.2%). In univariable Cox regression analyses, NSD2 expression was associated with PSA progression, progression on imaging and overall survival (p?=?0.04, respectively). In multivariable analyses, NSD2 expression did not retain its association with these endpoints.

Conclusions: NSD2 expression is abnormal in almost 80% of patients with advanced PCa. Expression levels of this epigenetic regulator are easily detected by immunohistochemistry while this biomarker exhibited prognostic value for PCa progression and death in univariable analysis. Further studies on NSD2 involvement in PCa proliferation, progression, metastasis and resistance mechanisms are needed.     

Emerging zoonotic diseases originating in mammals: a systematic review of effects of anthropogenic land-use change

1. Zoonotic pathogens and parasites that are transmitted from vertebrates to humans are a major public health risk with high associated global economic costs. The spread of these pathogens and risk of transmission accelerate with recent anthropogenic land-use changes (LUC) such as deforestation, urbanisation, and agricultural intensification, factors that are expected to increase in the future due to human population expansion and increasing demand for resources.
2. We systematically review the literature on anthropogenic LUC and zoonotic diseases, highlighting the most prominent mammalian reservoirs and pathogens, and identifying avenues for future research.
3. The majority of studies were global reviews that did not focus on specific taxa. South America and Asia were the most-studied regions, while the most-studied LUC was urbanisation. Livestock were studied more within the context of agricultural intensification, carnivores with urbanisation and helminths, bats with deforestation and viruses, and primates with habitat fragmentation and protozoa.
4. Research into specific animal reservoirs has improved our understanding of how the spread of zoonotic diseases is affected by LUC. The behaviour of hosts can be altered when their habitats are changed, impacting the pathogens they carry and the probability of disease spreading to humans. Understanding this has enabled the identification of factors that alter the risk of emergence (such as virulence, pathogen diversity, and ease of transmission). Yet, many pathogens and impacts of LUC other than urbanisation have been understudied.
5. Predicting how zoonotic diseases emerge and spread in response to anthropogenic LUC requires more empirical and data synthesis studies that link host ecology and responses with pathogen ecology and disease spread. The link between anthropogenic impacts on the natural environment and the recent COVID-19 pandemic highlights the urgent need to understand how anthropogenic LUC affects the risk of spillover to humans and spread of zoonotic diseases originating in mammals.

     

2019年山西省梨锈病发生与流行特征研究

研究了梨锈病菌(Gymnosporangium haraeanum Syd.)冬孢子角在不同含水量和温度条件下的开裂和繁殖情况,并通过调研及监测手段研究了山西梨产区2019年锈病的发生情况,在此基础上,结合气象因子对梨锈病发生与流行条件进行了探究.结果表明,15~20℃条件下,发育成熟的梨锈病冬孢子角浸水10min可开裂,12h可检测到冬孢子和发育的担孢子;山西省梨产区锈病发生程度从北到南依次加重;4月份降水后平均温度≥15℃的环境条件,是诱发锈病发生的主要因子,为防控的关键点.     

Mathematical Models for the Spread and Control of Foot-and-Mouth Disease During the 1973 Epidemic in Austria

Two models are studied to describe the spread of foot-and-mouth disease during the 1973 epidemic in Austria. The models are modifications of a three-class-model (due to KERMACK and MC KENDRICK ) taking into account the special character of the disease as well as control methods (stamping-out-method, vaccination programs).     

Does Chloroquine,an Antimalarial Drug,Affect Autophagy in Tetrahymena pyriformis?

ABSTRACT. The effect of chloroquine (CQ) on autophagy was studied in starved Tetrahymena pyriformis . When a proliferating Tetrahymena culture is transferred to a starvation medium, autophagy commences although cells most advanced in the cell cycle will divide. The drug was added to 1-h starved cells at different pH values because CQ affects pH dependently. The CQ concentration blocking all cell divisions was determined as the lowest toxic, but sublethal, concentration. Hence, the highest tolerated concentrations at pH 6.8, 7.1, and 7.7 were 1.0, 0.3, and 0.03 mM CQ, respectively. Lower CQ concentrations had a dose-dependent effect on cell increment and higher concentrations induced cell mortality. Rates of cell motility and decreases in cell volume were affected by the drug, while the capacity for endocytosis was unaffected in low concentrations but affected dose dependently in high concentrations. Light microscopically, all drug-treated cells contained small refractive bodies, but in toxic concentrations they also contained conspicuously large vacuoles. After 1 h and 4 h in CQ, fine structure analysis showed autophagosomes with electron-dense material in cells in tolerated concentrations and of enlarged size, but decreased number, in toxic concentrations. The contents of autophagosomes revealed cell organelles in different stages of disintegration. The conclusion is that the drug enhances autophagy in Tetrahymena in a pH-, dose-, and time-dependent manner.