Environmental Influences on Dall's Sheep Survival

Understanding how species respond to environmental conditions can assist with conservation strategies and harvest management, especially in arctic and boreal regions that are experiencing rapid climate change. Although climatic influences on species distributions have been studied, broad-scale effects of climate on survival are less well known. We examined the interactive effects of meteorological and remotely sensed environmental variables on survival of Dall's sheep (Ovis dalli dalli) lambs and adults by synthesizing radio-telemetry data across their range. We used data from 9 studies of adult sheep and 2 studies of lambs that were conducted between 1997 and 2012 at sites spanning the species' range in Alaska, USA, and northwestern Canada. We obtained environmental variables throughout the range of Dall's sheep, including the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from optical remote sensing, freeze-thaw frequency (FTF) from passive microwave remote sensing, and gridded climate variables such as snow water equivalent, temperature, and precipitation. We used Cox proportional hazard regression to investigate the effects of environmental variables recorded during summer, winter, and the previous winter on annual survival rates of Dall's sheep lambs and adults. Summer NDVI was the most influential environmental factor affecting lamb survival, with improved lamb survival occurring in years with a high maximum NDVI. Also, lamb predation by coyotes (Canis latrans) and golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) decreased substantially with increasing NDVI. The previous winter FTF had the strongest effect on adult survival, with decreased survival occurring after winters with high FTF. In addition, these remotely sensed environmental factors interacted with meteorological factors to affect survival, such that effects of winter temperature depended on summer NDVI and winter FTF. Warm winters increased lamb survival only when preceded by summers with high NDVI, and warm winters increased adult survival only when winter FTF was low. Thus, potential benefits of climate warming may be counteracted if wintertime freeze-thaw events markedly increase. Correlations among environmental variables across sites were low, and regional climate cycles such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) had weak effects, indicating substantial local variability in climatic conditions experienced by Dall's sheep across their range. These findings can help managers anticipate how Dall's sheep populations will respond to changes in local environmental conditions. Our results also highlight the utility of multiple remotely sensed environmental conditions for ungulate management, especially passive microwave products that provide valuable information on winter icing events. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

Sex-based differences in vigor and site preferences of Juniperus communis subsp. nana

Dioecious alpine juniper has been influenced by human impacts, management and climate changes; hence, its present populations are remnant fragments of its former distribution in central Europe. Complex environmental shifts have had fatal consequences for growth, reproduction and health of juniper and hence for its population structure. We asked the questions: 1) what was the population size structure, the sex ratio and the health status of individuals? 2) How were the population parameters linked with the environmental conditions and surrounding vegetation? The study area was close and above the upper forest limit in central Europe, the Hrubý Jeseník Mts. The parameters of each juniper individual and its environmental conditions were obtained, Ellenberg's indicator values and habitat categories were also determined. Proportions of sex categories, shrub size and environmental conditions were investigated to assess relationships between the population categories and environmental factors. We revealed linkage among the shrub size, health vigor, vegetation cover, a habitat and environmental factors. While there was equal ratio of females and males (1:1), small individuals of undetermined sex predominated that reducing the effective population size. Juniper health vigor was associated with surrounding vegetation cover. Individuals of undetermined sex were smaller than those of remaining sex categories and prefer specific habitats at higher elevation, underlining the effect of abiotic conditions on sex performance and ratio. The observed pattern, which was attributed to shift in land-use practices in the middle of 20th century and climate changes, could be improved by management. We recommended experimental local grazing and mowing accompanying by profound and continuing assessment of interaction among environmental factors and juniper performance.     

Validation of discrete time-to-event prediction models in the presence of competing risks

Clinical prediction models play a key role in risk stratification, therapy assignment and many other fields of medical decision making. Before they can enter clinical practice, their usefulness has to be demonstrated using systematic validation. Methods to assess their predictive performance have been proposed for continuous, binary, and time-to-event outcomes, but the literature on validation methods for discrete time-to-event models with competing risks is sparse. The present paper tries to fill this gap and proposes new methodology to quantify discrimination, calibration, and prediction error (PE) for discrete time-to-event outcomes in the presence of competing risks. In our case study, the goal was to predict the risk of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) attributed to Pseudomonas aeruginosa in intensive care units (ICUs). Competing events are extubation, death, and VAP due to other bacteria. The aim of this application is to validate complex prediction models developed in previous work on more recently available validation data.     

A practical guide to DNA metabarcoding for entomological ecologists

1. DNA metabarcoding is a cost-effective species identification approach with great potential to assist entomological ecologists. This review presents a practical guide to help entomological ecologists design their own DNA metabarcoding studies and ensure that sound ecological conclusions can be obtained. 2. The review considers approaches to field sampling, laboratory work, and bioinformatic analyses, with the aim of providing the background knowledge needed to make decisions at each step of a DNA metabarcoding workflow. 3. Although most conventional sampling methods can be adapted to DNA metabarcoding, this review highlights techniques that will ensure suitable DNA preservation during field sampling and laboratory storage. The review also calls for a greater understanding of the occurrence, transportation, and deposition of environmental DNA when applying DNA metabarcoding approaches for different ecosystems. 4. Accurate species detection with DNA metabarcoding needs to consider biases introduced during DNA extraction and PCR amplification, cross-contamination resulting from inappropriate amplicon library preparation, and downstream bioinformatic analyses. Quantifying species abundance with DNA metabarcoding is in its infancy, yet recent studies demonstrate promise for estimating relative species abundance from DNA sequencing reads. 5. Given that bioinformatics is one of the biggest hurdles for researchers new to DNA metabarcoding, several useful graphical user interface programs are recommended for sequence data processing, and the application of emerging sequencing technologies is discussed.     

One-step targeted maximum likelihood estimation for time-to-event outcomes

Researchers in observational survival analysis are interested in not only estimating survival curve nonparametrically but also having statistical inference for the parameter. We consider right-censored failure time data where we observe n independent and identically distributed observations of a vector random variable consisting of baseline covariates, a binary treatment at baseline, a survival time subject to right censoring, and the censoring indicator. We assume the baseline covariates are allowed to affect the treatment and censoring so that an estimator that ignores covariate information would be inconsistent. The goal is to use these data to estimate the counterfactual average survival curve of the population if all subjects are assigned the same treatment at baseline. Existing observational survival analysis methods do not result in monotone survival curve estimators, which is undesirable and may lose efficiency by not constraining the shape of the estimator using the prior knowledge of the estimand. In this paper, we present a one-step Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimator (TMLE) for estimating the counterfactual average survival curve. We show that this new TMLE can be executed via recursion in small local updates. We demonstrate the finite sample performance of this one-step TMLE in simulations and an application to a monoclonal gammopathy data.     

ROC-guided survival trees and ensembles

Tree-based methods are popular nonparametric tools in studying time-to-event outcomes. In this article, we introduce a novel framework for survival trees and ensembles, where the trees partition the dynamic survivor population and can handle time-dependent covariates. Using the idea of randomized tests, we develop generalized time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for evaluating the performance of survival trees. The tree-building algorithm is guided by decision-theoretic criteria based on ROC, targeting specifically for prediction accuracy. To address the instability issue of a single tree, we propose a novel ensemble procedure based on averaging martingale estimating equations, which is different from existing methods that average the predicted survival or cumulative hazard functions from individual trees. Extensive simulation studies are conducted to examine the performance of the proposed methods. We apply the methods to a study on AIDS for illustration.     

A resurrection study reveals limited evolution of thermal performance in response to recent climate change across the geographic range of the scarlet monkeyflower

Evolutionary rescue can prevent populations from declining under climate change, and should be more likely at high-latitude, “leading” edges of species’ ranges due to greater temperature anomalies and gene flow from warm-adapted populations. Using a resurrection study with seeds collected before and after a 7-year period of record warming, we tested for thermal adaptation in the scarlet monkeyflower Mimulus cardinalis. We grew ancestors and descendants from northern-edge, central, and southern-edge populations across eight temperatures. Despite recent climate anomalies, populations showed limited evolution of thermal performance curves. However, one southern population evolved a narrower thermal performance breadth by 1.31°C, which matches the direction and magnitude of the average decrease in seasonality experienced. Consistent with the climate variability hypothesis, thermal performance breadth increased with temperature seasonality across the species’ geographic range. Inconsistent with performance trade-offs between low and high temperatures across populations, we did not detect a positive relationship between thermal optimum and mean temperature. These findings fail to support the hypothesis that evolutionary response to climate change is greatest at the leading edge, and suggest that the evolution of thermal performance is unlikely to rescue most populations from the detrimental effects of rapidly changing climate.     

Adverse responses of Cabera pusaria caterpillars to high dietary manganese concentration

The adaptation of insects to environmental changes can constitute a crucial factor in their development and activity. The response of Cabera pusaria L. (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) caterpillars to high manganese (Mn) concentrations in the diet was studied. Birch leaves were treated by dipping in MnCl₂·4H₂O solutions, thereby achieving Mn contents of 370 (T0), 695 (T1), 3 198 (T2), and 6 302 mg kg⁻¹ (T3). The reactions were determined by observing caterpillar mortality, development time, food consumption, and pupal weight. Manganese concentrations in larval excrement, pupae, and food were determined. Manganese in the diet at unnaturally increased concentrations caused great stress for caterpillars. All individuals in the treatment with the highest Mn concentration (T3) died during rearing and successful pupation occurred in only four individuals in T2. Even in the case of caterpillars from T1 (twofold higher than T0) a negative reaction (increased food consumption and prolonged development) was recorded. We also determined significantly increased Mn concentration in pupae from T1 (T2 and T3 were not included in this evaluation due to mortality) and excrement (T1‒T3) compared with T0 having a natural Mn concentration. Caterpillars were seen to eliminate negatively acting dietary Mn by its translocation to excrement. However, the highest mortality rate in T2 and T3 and negative reactions of individuals in T1 very likely demonstrate energy insufficiency and the high energy requirements of Mn elimination mechanisms.     

Environment predicts repeated body size shifts in a recent radiation of Australian mammals*

Closely related species that occur across steep environmental gradients often display clear body size differences, and examining this pattern is crucial to understanding how environmental variation shapes diversity. Australian endemic rodents in the Pseudomys Division (Muridae: Murinae) have repeatedly colonized the arid, monsoon, and mesic biomes over the last 5 million years. Using occurrence records, body mass data, and Bayesian phylogenetic models, we test whether body mass of 31 species in the Pseudomys Division can be predicted by their biome association. We also model the effect of eight environmental variables on body mass. Despite high phylogenetic signal in body mass evolution across the phylogeny, we find that mass predictably increases in the mesic biome and decreases in arid and monsoon biomes. As per Bergmann's rule, temperature is strongly correlated with body mass, as well as several other variables. Our results highlight two important findings. First, body size in Australian rodents has tracked with climate through the Pleistocene, likely due to several environmental variables rather than a single factor. Second, support for both Brownian motion and predictable change at different taxonomic levels in the Pseudomys Division phylogeny demonstrates how the level at which we test hypotheses can alter interpretation of evolutionary processes.