Tracking unstable states: ecosystem dynamics in a changing world

Ecological systems can show complex and sometimes abrupt responses to environmental change, with important implications for their resilience. Theories of alternate stable states have been used to predict regime shifts of ecosystems as equilibrium responses to sufficiently slow environmental change. The actual rate of environmental change is a key factor affecting the response, yet we are still lacking a non-equilibrium theory that explicitly considers the influence of this rate of environmental change. We present a metacommunity model of predator–prey interactions displaying multiple stable states, and we impose an explicit rate of environmental change in habitat quality (carrying capacity) and connectivity (dispersal rate). We study how regime shifts depend on the rate of environmental change and compare the outcome with a stability analysis in the corresponding constant environment. Our results reveal that in a changing environment, the community can track states that are unstable in the constant environment. This tracking can lead to regime shifts, including local extinctions, that are not predicted by alternative stable state theory. In our metacommunity, tracking unstable states also controls the maintenance of spatial heterogeneity and spatial synchrony. Tracking unstable states can also lead to regime shifts that may be reversible or irreversible. Our study extends current regime shift theories to integrate rate-dependent responses to environmental change. It reveals the key role of unstable states for predicting transient dynamics and long-term resilience of ecological systems to climate change.     

全球变化格局下重要传粉昆虫大蜜蜂的潜在适生区变化

【目的】当前全球气候变化、土地利用改变、人类活动加剧等正威胁着传粉昆虫的多样性及分布;蜜蜂是生态系统中重要的传粉昆虫类群,对气候、环境变化响应敏感。本研究以重要的传粉昆虫大蜜蜂Apis dorsata为对象,探讨全球变化格局下其潜在适生区变化以及影响其分布的关键因子。【方法】通过文献、馆藏和野外调查系统收集了全球范围内大蜜蜂的物种分布数据,使用13个环境变量通过MaxEnt模型模拟了大蜜蜂当前的潜在适生区;使用9个气候变量并结合公共地球系统模型(CCSM4)模拟了大蜜蜂过去、当前和未来的潜在适生区。【结果】AUC比率显示MaxEnt模型对大蜜蜂的潜在适生区模拟具有较高的准确性,模拟结果表明大蜜蜂的中高潜在适生区主要分布在南亚和东南亚湿润的热带雨林、热带季节性雨林和低地雨林。人类影响、温度季节性变化、等温性、最冷季均温和海拔是影响大蜜蜂潜在适生区的5个最主要因子;在人类影响下大蜜蜂的潜在适生区向山区和连片的湿润常绿森林区收缩,中高潜在适生区显著减少且呈破碎化趋势。基于9个气候变量和CCSM4气候模型对过去、当前和未来的模拟结果显示：在过去的末次冰盛期,东南亚地区可能是大蜜蜂的避难所;在未来,广布于热带地区的大蜜蜂适生区与当前的相近,且部分地区适生指数升高。【结论】基于气候的模拟结果显示大蜜蜂能积极应对未来气候变暖,但随人类活动的加剧及全球气候变化,大蜜蜂仍然面临较大的威胁,需要加强其在南亚和东南亚的中高潜在适生区的重视和保护。     

Can we manage fisheries with the inherent uncertainty from eDNA?

Environmental (e)DNA, as a general approach in aquatic systems, seeks to connect the presence of species' genetic material in the water and hence to infer the species' physical presence. However, fisheries managers face making decisions with risk and uncertainty when eDNA indicates a fish is present but traditional methods fail to capture the fish. In comparison with traditional methods such as nets, electrofishing and piscicides, eDNA approaches have more sources of underlying error that could give rise to false positives. This has resulted in some managers to question whether eDNA can be used to make management decisions because there is no fish in hand. As a relatively new approach, the methods and techniques have quickly evolved to improve confidence in eDNA. By evaluating an eDNA based research programmes through the pattern of the eDNA signal, assay design, experimental design, quality assurance and quality control checks, data analyses and concurrent search for fish using traditional gears, the evidence for fish presence can be evaluated to build confidence in the eDNA approach. The benefits for fisheries management from adopting an eDNA approach are numerous but include cost effectiveness, broader geographic coverage of habitat occupancy, early detection of invasive species, non-lethal stock assessments, exploration of previously inaccessible aquatic environments and discovery of new species hidden beneath the water's surface. At a time when global freshwater and marine fisheries are facing growing threats from over-harvest, pollution and climate change, we anticipate that growing confidence in eDNA will overcome the inherent uncertainty of not having a fish in hand and will empower the informed management actions necessary to protect and restore our fisheries.     

At Palmyra Atoll,the fish-community environmental DNA signal changes across habitats but not with tides

At Palmyra Atoll, the environmental DNA (eDNA) signal on tidal sand flats was associated with fish biomass density and captured 98%–100% of the expected species diversity there. Although eDNA spilled over across habitats, species associated with reef habitat contributed more eDNA to reef sites than to sand-flat sites, and species associated with sand-flat habitat contributed more eDNA to sand-flat sites than to reef sites. Tides did not disrupt the sand-flat habitat signal. At least 25 samples give a coverage >97.5% at this diverse, tropical, marine system.     

Meta-Fish-Lib: A generalised,dynamic DNA reference library pipeline for metabarcoding of fishes

The accuracy and reliability of DNA metabarcoding analyses depend on the breadth and quality of the reference libraries that underpin them. However, there are limited options available to obtain and curate the huge volumes of sequence data that are available on public repositories such as NCBI and BOLD. Here, we provide a pipeline to download, clean and annotate mitochondrial DNA sequence data for a given list of fish species. Features of this pipeline include (a) support for multiple metabarcode markers; (b) searches on species synonyms and taxonomic name validation; (c) phylogeny assisted quality control for identification and removal of misannotated sequences; (d) automatically generated coverage reports for each new GenBank release update; and (e) citable, versioned DOIs. As an example we provide a ready-to-use curated reference library for the marine and freshwater fishes of the U.K. To augment this reference library for environmental DNA metabarcoding specifically, we generated 241 new MiFish-12S sequences for 88 U.K. marine species, and make available new primer sets useful for sequencing these. This brings the coverage of common U.K. species for the MiFish-12S fragment to 93%, opening new avenues for scaling up fish metabarcoding across wide spatial gradients. The Meta-Fish-Lib reference library and pipeline is hosted at https://github.com/genner-lab/meta-fish-lib .     

Physical enrichment research for captive fish: Time to focus on the DETAILS

Growing research effort has shown that physical enrichment (PE) can improve fish welfare and research validity. However, the inclusion of PE does not always result in positive effects and conflicting findings have highlighted the many nuances involved. Effects are known to depend on species and life stage tested, but effects may also vary with differences in the specific items used as enrichment between and within studies. Reporting fine-scale characteristics of items used as enrichment in studies may help to reveal these factors. We conducted a survey of PE-focused studies published in the last 5 years to examine the current state of methodological reporting. The survey results suggest that some aspects of enrichment are not adequately detailed. For example, the amount and dimensions of objects used as enrichment were frequently omitted. Similarly, the ecological relevance, or other justification, for enrichment items was frequently not made explicit. Focusing on ecologically relevant aspects of PE and increasing the level of detail reported in studies may benefit future work and we propose a framework with the acronym DETAILS ( D imensions, E cological rationale, T iming of enrichment, A mount, I nputs, L ighting and S ocial environment). We outline the potential importance of each of the elements of this framework with the hope it may aid in the level of reporting and standardization across studies, ultimately aiding the search for more beneficial types of PE and the development of our understanding and ability to improve the welfare of captive fish and promote more biologically relevant behaviour.