EVOLUTION AND EXTINCTION IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT: A QUANTITATIVE-GENETIC ANALYSIS

Because of the ubiquity of genetic variation for quantitative traits, virtually all populations have some capacity to respond evolutionarily to selective challenges. However, natural selection imposes demographic costs on a population, and if these costs are sufficiently large, the likelihood of extinction will be high. We consider how the mean time to extinction depends on selective pressures (rate and stochasticity of environmental change, and strength of selection), population parameters (carrying capacity, and reproductive capacity), and genetics (rate of polygenic mutation). We assume that in a randomly mating, finite population subject to density-dependent population growth, individual fitness is determined by a single quantitative-genetic character under Gaussian stabilizing selection with the optimum phenotype exhibiting directional change, or random fluctuations, or both. The quantitative trait is determined by a finite number of freely recombining, mutationally equivalent, additive loci. The dynamics of evolution and extinction are investigated, assuming that the population is initially under mutation-selection-drift balance. Under this model, in a directionally changing environment, the mean phenotype lags behind the optimum, but on the average evolves parallel to it. The magnitude of the lag determines the vulnerability to extinction. In finite populations, stochastic variation in the genetic variance can be quite pronounced, and bottlenecks in the genetic variance temporarily can impair the population's adaptive capacity enough to cause extinction when it would otherwise be unlikely in an effectively infinite population. We find that maximum sustainable rates of evolution or, equivalently, critical rates of environmental change, may be considerably less than 10% of a phenotypic standard deviation per generation.     

Mass Coral Reef Bleaching: A Recent Outcome of Increased El Niño Activity?

Coral reefs are generally considered to be the most biologically productive of all marine ecosystems, but in recent times these vulnerable aquatic resources have been subject to unusual degradation. The general decline in reefs has been greatly accelerated by mass bleaching in which corals whiten en masse and often fail to recover. Empirical evidence indicates a coral reef bleaching cycle in which major bleaching episodes are synchronized with El Niño events that occur every 3–4 years on average. By heating vast areas of the Pacific Ocean, and affecting the Indian and Atlantic Oceans as well, El Niño causes widespread damage to reefs largely because corals are very sensitive to temperature changes. However, mass bleaching events were rarely observed before the 1970s and their abrupt appearance two decades ago remains an enigma. Here we propose a new explanation for the sudden occurrence of mass bleaching and show that it may be a response to the relative increase in El Niño experienced over the last two decades.     

An evaluation of the Lost World and Vertical Displacement hypotheses in the Chimantá Massif, Venezuelan Guayana

Aim To document the occurrence of vertical displacements of vegetation in the high plateaus of the Venezuelan Guayana (tepuis) over the last c. 6000 years, and to discuss their significance for the origin of their flora, especially the endemism patterns observed in their flat summits. Two hypotheses have been proposed for the origin of the summit flora. One (the Lost World hypothesis) proposes a long history of evolution in isolation from the surrounding plains, while the other (the Vertical Displacement hypothesis) suggests that vertical movements of vegetation during the Pleistocene glacial‐interglacial cycles would have resulted in floristic mixing within the lowlands, and genetic interchange among plateau summits. Location This work has been conducted on the flat summit of the Churí‐tepui, in the Chimantá massif, at 5°15′ Lat. N and 62°01′ Long. W, around 2250 m altitude. Methods Pollen analysis and radiocarbon dating of two peat outcrops, using modern analogue technique and numerical methods for palaeoecological interpretation were used. Results The replacement of a high‐altitude plant community (a paramoid Chimantaea shrubland) by a lower elevation (< 2300 m) Stegolepis meadow, occurred about 2500 years before present (yr bp ). This vegetation change is inferred to have resulted from a regional climatic shift to higher temperature and moisture. A subsequent decrease in temperature and moisture led to the establishment of present conditions after about 1450 yr bp . Main conclusions The highland vegetation of the tepuis responded to climate shifts with vertical displacements, supporting the hypothesis of vertical mixing. However, a physiographical analysis shows that around half of the tepuis would never have been connected by lowlands. Therefore, both hypotheses are needed to explain the origins of the summit flora in the tepuis.     

The impact of climate change on the physical characteristics of the larger lakes in the English Lake District

1. The larger lakes of the English Lake District have been the subject of intensive scientific study for more than 60 years. Year‐to‐year variations in the weather have recently been shown to have a major effect on their physical characteristics. The area is mild but very wet and the dynamics of the lakes are strongly influenced by the movement of weather systems across the Atlantic. 2. Here, we combine the results of long‐term measurements and the projections from a Regional Climate Model (RCM) to assess the potential impact of climate change on the surface temperature and residence times of the lakes. 3. The RCM outputs used were produced by the U.K. Hadley Centre and are based on the IPCC ‘A2’ scenario for the emission of greenhouse gases. These suggest that winters in the area will be very much milder and wetter by the 2050s and that there will be a pronounced reduction in the summer rainfall. 4. An analysis of the meteorological data acquired between 1940 and 2000 shows that there have been progressive increases in the winter air temperature and in the rainfall which are correlated with the long‐term change in the North Atlantic Oscillation. The trends reported during the summer were less pronounced and were correlated with the increased frequency of anticyclonic days and a decrease in the frequency of westerly days in the British Isles. 5. A simple model of the year‐to‐year variations in surface temperatures showed that the highest winter temperatures were recorded in the deeper lakes and the highest summer temperatures in the lakes with the shallowest thermoclines. When this model was used to predict the surface temperatures of the lakes in the 2050s, the greatest winter increase (+1.08 °C) was observed in the shallowest lake and the greatest summer increase (+2.18 °C) in the lake with the shallowest thermocline. 6. The model used to estimate the seasonal variation in the residence time of the lakes showed that the most pronounced variations were recorded in lakes with a short residence time. Average winter residence times ranged from a minimum of 10 days to a maximum of 436 days and average summer values from a minimum of 23 days to a maximum of 215 days. When this model was used to predict the residence time of the lakes in the 2050s, the greatest winter decrease (−20%) was observed in the smallest lake and the greatest summer increase (+92%) in the lake with the shortest residence time. 7. The results are discussed in relation to trends reported elsewhere in Europe and the impact of changes in the atmospheric circulation on the dynamics of the lakes. The most serious limnological effects were those projected for the summer and included a general increase in the stability of the lakes and a decrease in the flushing rate of the lakes with short residence times.     

Sublethal effects of aldicarb on the behaviour of Aphis fabae and two clones of Myzus persicae and on the transmission of beet mosaic virus by these aphids

In laboratory experiments treatment of sugar-beet plants with aldicarb stimulated the mobility of Aphis fabae and two clones of Myzus persicae which were susceptible (S) and resistant (R) to carbamate-based insecticides, respectively. On the other hand, the number of aphids probing and the total number of probes made was reduced, and hence the transmission of beet mosaic virus (BMV) was restricted. In outdoor experiments the spread of BMV from aldicarb-treated plants by naturally infesting aphids was also restricted. The number of infected plants decreased with increasing distance from the sources of infection.

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Résumé Des plantes de betterave traitées au laboratoire avec de l'aldicarbe ont stimulé la mobilité d'Aphis fabae et de deux clones de Myzus persicae, l'un sensible et l'autre résistant à des insecticides contenant des carbamates. Par ailleurs, le nombre de pucerons en train de sonder les feuilles ainsi que le nombre total de sondages ont été réduits et ainsi la transmission du virus de la mosaïque de la betterave (BMV) a été limitée. Dans des expériences à l'extérieur, la vitesse de propagation de BMV par des pucerons sur des plantes traitées à l'aldicarbe a été aussi plus limitée. Le nombre de plantes contaminées diminuait avec la distance de la source de contamination.

     

Dendrochronology in Coniferous forests around Lake Rara,West Nepal

In two forest stands, one domonated byAbies spectabilis, and the other byPinus wallichiana-Picea smithiana, 198 cores were taken from 105 conifers in May 1983 and the annual ring widths were measured. The annual ring widths usually had significant similarities between cores taken from the same tree and with cores taken from different trees. these similarities increased with tree size. The climatic change affected the large trees more strongly than it did the small trees. Micro environmental changes, such as canopy gap affected the small trees more strongly. Annual ring widths were also correlated with the annual precipitations at Jumla 30 km south of the plots for a recent 20 year period. A multiple regression analysis between ring width and seasonal precipitation showed that the growth ofA. spectabilis was correlated primarily with the rain from May to August and secondarily with that from September to December in the previous year.