Pulp Nonfiction: Regionalized Dynamic Model of the U.S. Pulp and Paper Industry

This article presents a modeling framework that enhances our ability to analyze the implications of policy for future sustainability of industrial systems. The framework quantifies the relationship between physical input and waste flows, capital vintage, and investment behavior in the U.S. pulp and paper industry. A regional vintage model is developed that simultaneously incorporates investment decisions, vintage structure of the capital stock, and physical material and energy flows, in addition to paper demand. Each capital vintage is specified by size, output structure, and age-specific retirement rates, as well as fiber use and energy intensities. Both embodied and disembodied technological change are incorporated, as well as greenhouse gas emissions from fuel use, and decomposition and incineration of waste. Estimated equations are used to simulate industrial futures until 2020, from a system of nonlinear differential equations.
Our results demonstrate the economic and physical inter-dependence between material and energy flows and the central role energy prices have in decision-making. For instance, an increase in average energy prices, ceteris paribus , will on average discourage paper recycling, which has implications for greenhouse gas emissions as well as for changes in energy intensity. The analysis of the data reveals diminishing rates of energy self-generation, and the immense longevity of capital, which hampers rapid change in input and carbon intensity. This stresses the importance of investment-led strategies in facilitating faster capital turnover to enhance future sustainability of the system.     

Isotopic insights into methane production,oxidation, and emissions in Arctic polygon tundra

Arctic wetlands are currently net sources of atmospheric CH₄. Due to their complex biogeochemical controls and high spatial and temporal variability, current net CH₄ emissions and gross CH₄ processes have been difficult to quantify, and their predicted responses to climate change remain uncertain. We investigated CH₄ production, oxidation, and surface emissions in Arctic polygon tundra, across a wet‐to‐dry permafrost degradation gradient from low‐centered (intact) to flat‐ and high‐centered (degraded) polygons. From 3 microtopographic positions (polygon centers, rims, and troughs) along the permafrost degradation gradient, we measured surface CH₄ and CO₂ fluxes, concentrations and stable isotope compositions of CH₄ and DIC at three depths in the soil, and soil moisture and temperature. More degraded sites had lower CH₄ emissions, a different primary methanogenic pathway, and greater CH₄ oxidation than did intact permafrost sites, to a greater degree than soil moisture or temperature could explain. Surface CH₄ flux decreased from 64 nmol m^?2 s^?1 in intact polygons to 7 nmol m^?2 s^?1 in degraded polygons, and stable isotope signatures of CH₄ and DIC showed that acetate cleavage dominated CH₄ production in low‐centered polygons, while CO₂ reduction was the primary pathway in degraded polygons. We see evidence that differences in water flow and vegetation between intact and degraded polygons contributed to these observations. In contrast to many previous studies, these findings document a mechanism whereby permafrost degradation can lead to local decreases in tundra CH₄ emissions.     

Land use change emission scenarios: anticipating a forest transition process in the Brazilian Amazon

Following an intense occupation process that was initiated in the 1960s, deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon have decreased significantly since 2004, stabilizing around 6000 km² yr^?1 in the last 5 years. A convergence of conditions contributed to this, including the creation of protected areas, the use of effective monitoring systems, and credit restriction mechanisms. Nevertheless, other threats remain, including the rapidly expanding global markets for agricultural commodities, large‐scale transportation and energy infrastructure projects, and weak institutions. We propose three updated qualitative and quantitative land‐use scenarios for the Brazilian Amazon, including a normative ‘Sustainability’ scenario in which we envision major socio‐economic, institutional, and environmental achievements in the region. We developed an innovative spatially explicit modelling approach capable of representing alternative pathways of the clear‐cut deforestation, secondary vegetation dynamics, and the old‐growth forest degradation. We use the computational models to estimate net deforestation‐driven carbon emissions for the different scenarios. The region would become a sink of carbon after 2020 in a scenario of residual deforestation (~1000 km² yr^?1) and a change in the current dynamics of the secondary vegetation – in a forest transition scenario. However, our results also show that the continuation of the current situation of relatively low deforestation rates and short life cycle of the secondary vegetation would maintain the region as a source of CO₂ – even if a large portion of the deforested area is covered by secondary vegetation. In relation to the old‐growth forest degradation process, we estimated average gross emission corresponding to 47% of the clear‐cut deforestation from 2007 to 2013 (using the DEGRAD system data), although the aggregate effects of the postdisturbance regeneration can partially offset these emissions. Both processes (secondary vegetation and forest degradation) need to be better understood as they potentially will play a decisive role in the future regional carbon balance.     

Thermogenic respiratory processes drive the exponential increase of volatile organic compound emissions in Macrozamia cycad cones

An important outcome of plant thermogenesis is increased emissions of volatiles that mediate pollinator behaviour. We investigated whether the large increase in emissions, mainly the monoterpene ß‐myrcene (>90%), during daily thermogenic events of Macrozamia macleayi and lucida cycad cones are due solely to the influence of high cone temperatures or are, instead, a result of increased respiratory rates during thermogenesis. We concurrently measured temperature, oxygen consumption and ß‐myrcene emission profiles during thermogenesis of pollen cones under typical environmental temperatures and during experimental manipulations of cone temperatures and aerobic conditions, all in the dark. The exponential rise in ß‐myrcene emissions never occurred without a prior, large increase in respiration, whereas an increase in cone temperature alone did not increase emissions. When respiration during thermogenesis was interrupted by anoxic conditions, ß‐myrcene emissions decreased. The increased emission rates are not a result of increased cone temperature per se (through increased enzyme activity or volatilization of stored volatiles) but are dependent on biosynthetic pathways associated with increased respiration during thermogenesis that provide the carbon, energy (ATP) and reducing compounds (NADPH) required for ß‐myrcene production through the methylerythritol phosphate (MEP) pathway. These findings establish the significant contribution of respiration to volatile production during thermogenesis.     

A model for mechanistic and system assessments of biochar effects on soils and crops and trade‐offs

We developed a biochar model within the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) software that integrates biochar knowledge and enables simulation of biochar effects within cropping systems. The model has algorithms that mechanistically connect biochar to soil organic carbon (SOC), soil water, bulk density (BD), pH, cation exchange capacity, and organic and mineral nitrogen. Soil moisture (SW)–temperature–nitrogen limitations on the rate of biochar decomposition were included as well as biochar‐induced priming effect on SOC mineralization. The model has 10 parameters that capture the diversity of biochar types, 15 parameters that address biochar‐soil interactions and 4 constants. The range of values and their sensitivity is reported. The biochar model was connected to APSIM's maize and wheat crop models to investigate long‐term (30 years) biochar effects on US maize and Australia wheat in various soils. Results from this sensitivity analysis showed that the effect of biochar was the largest in a sandy soil (Australian wheat) and the smallest in clay loam soil (US maize). On average across cropping systems and soils the order of sensitivity and the magnitude of the response of biochar to various soil‐plant processes was (from high to low): SOC (11% to 86%) > N₂O emissions (?10% to 43%43%) > plant available water content (0.6% to 12.9%) > BD (?6.5% to ?1.7%) > pH (?0.8% to 6.3%) > net N mineralization (?19% to 10%) > CO₂ emissions (?2.0% to 4.3%) > water filled pore space (?3.7% to 3.4%) > grain yield (?3.3% to 1.8%) > biomass (?1.6% to 1.4%). Our analysis showed that biochar has a larger impact on environmental outcomes rather than agricultural production. The mechanistic model has the potential to optimize biochar application strategies to enhance environmental and agronomic outcomes but more work is needed to fill knowledge gaps identified in this work.     

Isoprene emissions and photosynthesis in three ferns – The influence of light and temperature

A study was designed to determine the rates of isoprene emission and photosynthesis in three fern species [ Dicksonia antarctica Labill., Thelypteris decursive-pinnata (Van Hall) Ching and Thelypteris kunthii (Desv.) Morton] and the independent influence of light and temperature on these processes. The plants were conditioned in a growth chamber and then transferred to a controlled environment gas-exchange chamber. Samples of the chamber atmosphere were collected; isoprene was concentrated cryo-genically and measured by gas chromatography. Only small amounts of isoprene were detected around the ferns in the dark. Isoprene emissions increased with increasing levels of photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD) in all three species; 50% of the maximum emission occurred at PPFD levels of 130 to 500 μmol m−² s−¹. Maximum isoprene emissions occurred between 35 and 39°C which is a lower temperature maximum than reported for angiosperms and gymnosperms. The increased emissions with temperature were primarily associated with increased biosynthetic rates for isoprene. Carbon lost through isoprene accounted for 0.02 to 2.6% of the carbon fixed during photosynthesis, depending on the PPFD level, temperature and fern species.     

Effect of urea fertilizer and environmental factors on CH4 emissions from a Louisiana,USA rice field

Methane emissions from a flooded Louisiana, USA, rice field were measured over the first cropgrowing season. Microplots contained the semidwarf Lemont rice cultivar drill seeded into a Crowley silt loam soil (Typic Albaqualfs). Urea fertilizer was applied preflood at rates of 0, 100, 200 and 300 kg N ha^–1. Emissions of CH₄ from the plots to the atmosphere were measured over a 86-d sampling period until harvest. Methane samples were collected in the morning hours (0730–0930) using a closed-chamber technique. Emissions of CH₄ were highly variable over the first cropping season and a significant urea fertilizer effect was observed. Two peak CH₄ emission periods were observed and occurred about 11 d after panicle differentiation and during the ripening stages. Maximum CH₄ emmissions from the 0, 100, 200 and 300 urea-N treatments were 6.0, 8.9, 9.8 and 11.2 kg CH₄ ha^–1 d^–1, respectively. These flux measurements corresponded to approximately 210, 300, 310 and 360 kg CH₄ evolved ha^–1 over the 86-d sampling period for the 4 treatments.     

Consensus,uncertainties and challenges for perennial bioenergy crops and land use

Perennial bioenergy crops have significant potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and contribute to climate change mitigation by substituting for fossil fuels; yet delivering significant GHG savings will require substantial land‐use change, globally. Over the last decade, research has delivered improved understanding of the environmental benefits and risks of this transition to perennial bioenergy crops, addressing concerns that the impacts of land conversion to perennial bioenergy crops could result in increased rather than decreased GHG emissions. For policymakers to assess the most cost‐effective and sustainable options for deployment and climate change mitigation, synthesis of these studies is needed to support evidence‐based decision making. In 2015, a workshop was convened with researchers, policymakers and industry/business representatives from the UK, EU and internationally. Outcomes from global research on bioenergy land‐use change were compared to identify areas of consensus, key uncertainties, and research priorities. Here, we discuss the strength of evidence for and against six consensus statements summarising the effects of land‐use change to perennial bioenergy crops on the cycling of carbon, nitrogen and water, in the context of the whole life‐cycle of bioenergy production. Our analysis suggests that the direct impacts of dedicated perennial bioenergy crops on soil carbon and nitrous oxide are increasingly well understood and are often consistent with significant life cycle GHG mitigation from bioenergy relative to conventional energy sources. We conclude that the GHG balance of perennial bioenergy crop cultivation will often be favourable, with maximum GHG savings achieved where crops are grown on soils with low carbon stocks and conservative nutrient application, accruing additional environmental benefits such as improved water quality. The analysis reported here demonstrates there is a mature and increasingly comprehensive evidence base on the environmental benefits and risks of bioenergy cultivation which can support the development of a sustainable bioenergy industry.     

Bridging the climate mitigation gap with economy‐wide material productivity

Projections of UK greenhouse gas emissions estimate a shortfall in existing and planned climate policies meeting UK climate targets: the UK's mitigation gap. Material and product demand is driving industrial greenhouse gas emissions at a rate greater than carbon intensity improvements in the economy. Evidence shows that products can be produced with fewer carbon intensive inputs and demand for new products can be reduced. The economy‐wide contribution of material productivity and lifestyle changes to bridging the UK's mitigation gap is understudied. We integrate an input‐output framework with econometric analysis and case study evidence to analyse the potential of material productivity to help the UK bridge its anticipated emissions deficits, and the additional effort required to achieve transformative change aligned with 2 and 1.5°C temperature targets. We estimate that the emissions savings from material productivity measures are comparable to those from the Government's planned climate policy package. These additional measures could reduce the UK's anticipated emissions deficit up to 73%. The results demonstrate that material productivity deserves greater consideration in climate policy.     

Urinary hydroxylated metabolites of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons as biomarkers of exposure in asphalt workers

Background. Fumes and vapours released during laying of hot asphalt mix have been recognised as a major source of exposure for asphalt workers. Objectives. We investigated the relationships between inhalation exposure to asphalt emissions and urinary biomarkers of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in asphalt workers (AW, n=75) and in ground construction workers (CW, n=37). Methods. Total polyaromatic compounds (PAC) and 15 priority PAHs in inhaled air were measured by personal sampling. Hydroxylated PAH metabolites (OH-PAHs) (2-naphthol, 2-hydroxyfluorene, 3-hydroxyphenanthrene, 1-hydroxypyrene, 6-hydroxychrysene and 3-hydroxybenzo[a]pyrene) were determined in urine spot samples collected in three different times during the work week. Results. Median vapour-phase PAC (5.5 µg m^-3), PAHs (≤50 ng m^-3) and OH-PAHs (0.08-1.11 µg l^-1) were significantly higher in AW than in CW, except in the cases of air naphthalene and 2-naphthol. Airborne levels of particle-phase contaminants were similar in the two groups and much lower than vapour-phase levels; metabolites of particulate PAHs were never found in quantifiable amounts. An appreciable increase in OH-PAH levels during the work day and work week was found in AW; median levels for 2-hydroxyfluorene, 3-hydroxyphenanthrene and 1-hydroxypyrene were, respectively, 0.29, 0.08 and 0.18 at baseline; 0.50, 0.18 and 0.29, pre-shift; 1.11, 0.44 and 0.44 µg l^-1, post-shift. Each OH-PAH exhibited a characteristic profile of increase, reflecting differences in half-lives of the parent compounds. In non-smoking subjects, positive correlations were found between vapour-phase PAC or PAHs and OH-PAHs both in pre- and post-shift samples (0.34 ≤ r≤69). Smokers exhibited 2-5-fold higher OH-PAHs than non-smokers, at any time and at both workplaces. Conclusions. Our results suggest that OH-PAHs are useful biomarkers for monitoring exposure to asphalt emissions. The work-related exposure to PAC and PAHs was low in all AW, but urinary metabolites reflected exposure satisfactorily.