Closure procedures for monotone bi-factorial dose-response designs

Summary.   Two goals of multiple-dose factorial trials are (i) demonstrating improved effectiveness of a fixed combination over each of its components as well as (ii) identifying a safe and effective dose range. The authors address both goals though with focus on the second by closure procedures that guarantee strong control of the familywise error rate. Two different families of null hypotheses are investigated for bi-factorial dose–response designs that are monotone with respect to the matrix partial order. One is suitable to find the minimum effective dose(s) and the other one is large enough to identify the highest effective dose step(s). Likelihood ratio tests and appropriate multiple contrast tests are applied to an unbalanced clinical trial example taken from Hung (2000, Statistics in Medicine 19, 2079–2087). Full computer code written in the R language is available from the Internet.     

Analysis of microsatellite variation in Pinus radiata reveals effects of genetic drift but no recent bottlenecks

Most conifer species occur in large continuous populations, but radiata pine, Pinus radiata, occurs only in five disjunctive natural populations in California and Mexico. The Mexican island populations were presumably colonized from the mainland millions of years ago. According to Axelrod (1981), the mainland populations are relicts of an earlier much wider distribution, reduced some 8,000 years ago, whereas according to Millar (1997, 2000), the patchy metapopulation-like structure is typical of the long-term population demography of the species. We used 19 highly polymorphic microsatellite loci to describe population structure and to search for signs of the dynamics of population demography over space and time. Frequencies of null alleles at microsatellite loci were estimated using an approach based on the probability of identity by descent. Microsatellite genetic diversities were high in all populations [expected heterozygosity (H(e)) = 0.68-0.77], but the island populations had significantly lower estimates. Variation between loci in genetic differentiation (F(ST)) was high, but no locus deviated statistically significantly from the rest at an experiment wide level of 0.05. Thus, all loci were included in subsequent analysis. The average differentiation was measured as F(ST) = 0.14 (SD 0.012), comparable with earlier allozyme results. The island populations were more diverged from the other populations and from an inferred common ancestral gene pool than the mainland ones. All populations showed a deficiency of expected heterozygosity given the number of alleles, the mainland populations more so than the island ones. The results thus do not support a recent important contraction in the mainland range of radiata pine.     

灰飞虱发育起点温度及有效积温的探讨

利用培养箱在恒温条件下饲养灰飞虱Laodelphax striatellus Fallén,测定了卵、若虫、成虫繁殖前和全世代发育历期,用直线回归法计算了灰飞虱各虫态和全世代的发育起点温度和有效积温分别为10.06、6.43、10.29、8.08℃和102.3、365.2、87.5、552.1日·度。并根据有效积温法则预测了该虫在济宁市1年完成的代数为4～5代。     

Cytoplasmic feminizing elements in a two-population model: infection dynamics, gene flow modification, and the spread of autosomal suppressors

We investigate the dynamics of a cytoplasmic parasitic element with feminizing effect in a two-population model. We assume that the host species has a ZZ/ZW sex determination system. Our analysis reveals that the feminizer and the W chromosome can stably coexist by dominating different populations if the transmission rate differs significantly between the populations and migration is sufficiently weak. In the equilibrium of coexistence, genetic influx at any host autosomal locus is strongly enhanced in the population where infection is prevalent but not modified in the other population. We further explore conditions for the spread of autosomal suppressor genes that reduce transmission of feminizing elements to the cost of host viability, and compute their equilibrium frequencies. Our results confirm the hypothesis that selfish genetic elements convert infected host populations into genetic sinks, thereby restricting the spread of transmission suppressors.     

枸杞负泥虫的发育起点温度和有效积温

根据室内饲养观察结果估测,枸杞负泥虫LemadecempunctataGebler各虫态的发育起点温度分别为卵期(7.8±2.2)℃,若虫期(7.6±2.1)℃,预蛹期(8.1±0.9)℃,蛹期(9.3±3.0)℃,产卵前期(8.2±3.2)℃;有效积温分别为卵期88.4日·度,若虫期138.3日·度,预蛹期71.3日·度,蛹期65.9日·度,产卵前期126.8日·度;全世代的发育起点温度为(7.7±1.9)℃,有效积温为526.8日·度。根据有效积温法则推算,枸杞负泥虫在宁夏地区年发生理论代数为3.81(代),与实际观察结果基本吻合。     

Beyond barcoding: A mitochondrial genomics approach to molecular phylogenetics and diagnostics of blowflies (Diptera: Calliphoridae)

Members of the Calliphoridae (blowflies) are significant for medical and veterinary management, due to the ability of some species to consume living flesh as larvae, and for forensic investigations due to the ability of others to develop in corpses. Due to the difficulty of accurately identifying larval blowflies to species there is a need for DNA-based diagnostics for this family, however the widely used DNA-barcoding marker, cox1, has been shown to fail for several groups within this family. Additionally, many phylogenetic relationships within the Calliphoridae are still unresolved, particularly deeper level relationships. Sequencing whole mt genomes has been demonstrated both as an effective method for identifying the most informative diagnostic markers and for resolving phylogenetic relationships. Twenty-seven complete, or nearly so, mt genomes were sequenced representing 13 species, seven genera and four calliphorid subfamilies and a member of the related family Tachinidae. PCR and sequencing primers developed for sequencing one calliphorid species could be reused to sequence related species within the same superfamily with success rates ranging from 61% to 100%, demonstrating the speed and efficiency with which an mt genome dataset can be assembled. Comparison of molecular divergences for each of the 13 protein-coding genes and 2 ribosomal RNA genes, at a range of taxonomic scales identified novel targets for developing as diagnostic markers which were 117–200% more variable than the markers which have been used previously in calliphorids. Phylogenetic analysis of whole mt genome sequences resulted in much stronger support for family and subfamily-level relationships. The Calliphoridae are polyphyletic, with the Polleninae more closely related to the Tachinidae, and the Sarcophagidae are the sister group of the remaining calliphorids. Within the Calliphoridae, there was strong support for the monophyly of the Chrysomyinae and Luciliinae and for the sister-grouping of Luciliinae with Calliphorinae. Relationships within Chrysomya were not well resolved. Whole mt genome data, supported the previously demonstrated paraphyly of Lucilia cuprina with respect to L. sericata and allowed us to conclude that it is due to hybrid introgression prior to the last common ancestor of modern sericata populations, rather than due to recent hybridisation, nuclear pseudogenes or incomplete lineage sorting.     

Spatial and temporal determinants of genetic structure in Gentianella bohemica

The biennial plant Gentianella bohemica is a subendemic of the Bohemian Massif, where it occurs in seminatural grasslands. It has become rare in recent decades as a result of profound changes in land use. Using amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLP) fingerprint data, we investigated the genetic structure within and among populations of G. bohemica in Bavaria, the Czech Republic, and the Austrian border region. The aim of our study was (1) to analyze the genetic structure among populations and to discuss these findings in the context of present and historical patterns of connectivity and isolation of populations, (2) to analyze genetic structure among consecutive generations (cohorts of two consecutive years), and (3) to investigate relationships between intrapopulational diversity and effective population size (N(e)) as well as plant traits. (1) The German populations were strongly isolated from each other (pairwise F(ST)= 0.29-0.60) and from all other populations (F(ST)= 0.24-0.49). We found a pattern of near panmixis among the latter (F(ST)= 0.15-0.35) with geographical distance explaining only 8% of the genetic variance. These results were congruent with a principal coordinate analysis (PCoA) and analysis using STRUCTURE to identify genetically coherent groups. These findings are in line with the strong physical barrier and historical constraints, resulting in separation of the German populations from the others. (2) We found pronounced genetic differences between consecutive cohorts of the German populations (pairwise F(ST)= 0.23 and 0.31), which can be explained by local population history (land use, disturbance). (3) Genetic diversity within populations (Shannon index, H(Sh)) was significantly correlated with N(e) (R(S)= 0.733) and reflected a loss of diversity due to several demographic bottlenecks. Overall, we found that the genetic structure in G. bohemica is strongly influenced by historical periods of high connectivity and isolation as well as by marked demographic fluctuations in declining populations.     

Concurrent habitat and life history influences on effective/census population size ratios in stream-dwelling trout

Lower effective sizes (N(e)) than census sizes (N) are routinely documented in natural populations, but knowledge of how multiple factors interact to lower N(e)/N ratios is often limited. We show how combined habitat and life-history influences drive a 2.4- to 6.1-fold difference in N(e)/N ratios between two pristine brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) populations occupying streams separated by only 750 m. Local habitat features, particularly drainage area and stream depth, govern trout biomass produced in each stream. They also generate higher trout densities in the shallower stream by favoring smaller body size and earlier age-at-maturity. The combination of higher densities and reduced breeding site availability in the shallower stream likely leads to more competition among breeding trout, which results in greater variance in individual reproductive success and a greater reduction in N(e) relative to N. A similar disparity between juvenile or adult densities and breeding habitat availability is reported for other species and hence may also result in divergent N(e)/N ratios elsewhere. These divergent N(e)/N ratios between adjacent populations are also an instructive reminder for species conservation programs that genetic and demographic parameters may differ dramatically within species.     

Effective/census population size ratio estimation: a compendium and appraisal

With an ecological-evolutionary perspective increasingly applied toward the conservation and management of endangered or exploited species, the genetic estimation of effective population size (N_e) has proliferated. Based on a comprehensive analysis of empirical literature from the past two decades, we asked: (i) how often do studies link N_e to the adult census population size (N)? (ii) To what extent is N_e correctly linked to N? (iii) How readily is uncertainty accounted for in both N_e and N when quantifying N_e/N ratios? and (iv) how frequently and to what degree might errors in the estimation of N_e or N affect inferences of N_e/N ratios? We found that only 20% of available N_e estimates (508 of 2617; 233 studies) explicitly attempted to link N_e and N; of these, only 31% (160 of 508) correctly linked N_e and N. Moreover, only 7% (41 of 508) of N_e/N ratios (correctly linked or not) reported confidence intervals for both N_e and N; for those cases where confidence intervals were reported for N_e only, 31% of N_e/N ratios overlapped with 1, of which more than half also reached below N_e/N = 0.01. Uncertainty in N_e/N ratios thus sometimes spanned at least two orders of magnitude. We conclude that the estimation of N_e/N ratios in natural populations could be significantly improved, discuss several options for doing so, and briefly outline some future research directions.     

Terrorist Radiological Dispersive Device (RDD) Scenario and Cancer Risk Assessment

Terrorist attacks using radiological dispersal devices (RDD) are important threats that can lead to major environmental, economic, and public health concerns. In a simulation using a Gaussian model, we sought to determine dose curves as a function of distance from the explosion core site and from these data to determine the relative risk of developing tumors as well as the probability of causation (i.e., the statistical correlation between occurrence of malignancies and previous exposure to radiation). Calculation confirmed the cause dependence on age at exposure and the probability of tumor causation. This study aimed at emphasizing the importance of responding rapidly and efficiently, with a user-friendly user methodology that initially may help to guide the response from basic actions to the complete decision process.