On Branching Processes and the Early Stages of the Spread of an Epidemic

Branchingprocess(BP)isusedtomodeltheearlystagesofthespreadofasexuallytransmitteddisease.TheearlystagesofAIDSspreadwhichistransmittedbothhomosexuallyandheterosexuallyarestudiedasaBP.     

Parameter estimation for the distribution of single cell lag times

In Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment, it is vital to understand how lag times of individual cells are distributed over a bacterial population. Such identified distributions can be used to predict the time by which, in a growth-supporting environment, a few pathogenic cells can multiply to a poisoning concentration level.We model the lag time of a single cell, inoculated into a new environment, by the delay of the growth function characterizing the generated subpopulation. We introduce an easy-to-implement procedure, based on the method of moments, to estimate the parameters of the distribution of single cell lag times. The advantage of the method is especially apparent for cases where the initial number of cells is small and random, and the culture is detectable only in the exponential growth phase.     

生态意识及其主要特点

一、生态意识产生的时代背景生态意识作为人类思想的先进观念,产生于20世纪后半叶。产业革命以来二百多年,人类依据先进科学技术武装的强大生产力,无限制地向自然进     

Some Common Themes for Enzymes and Verbs

Enzymes are remarkable molecules which make metabolism possible. Their processing powers are considerable for not only are they catalysts they also contribute to information processing, integration, coherence and memory in the cell. This complex of attributes suggests that a complementary perspective to enzyme nature and activity is needed related to what enzymes and verbs have in common. The value of this kind of thinking is that it shifts the focus from objects and mechanisms to processes and information. In order to support this idea a number of features which enzymes and verbs share are discussed including, context-dependence, occurrence, cases, voice, mood and glue/integrative capacities. The paper concludes with some reflections on the utility of a view of enzymes as verbs.     

Establishment of the introduced kelp Undaria pinnatifida in Tasmania depends on disturbance to native algal assemblages

Despite recent rapid increases in the occurrence of nonindigenous marine organisms in the marine environment, few studies have critically examined the invasion process for a marine species. Here we use manipulative experiments to examine processes of invasion for the Asian kelp Undaria pinnatifida (Harvey) Suringar at two sites on the east coast of Tasmania. Disturbance to reduce cover of the native algal canopy was found to be critical in the establishment of U. pinnatifida, while the presence of a stable native algal canopy inhibited invasion. In the first sporophyte growth season following disturbance of the canopy, U. pinnatifida recruited in high densities (up to 19 plants m⁻²) while remaining rare or absent in un-manipulated plots. The timing of disturbance was also important. U. pinnatifida recruited in higher densities in plots where the native canopy was removed immediately prior to the sporophyte growth season (winter 2000), compared with plots where the canopy was removed 6 months earlier during the period of spore release (spring 1999). Removal of the native canopy also resulted in a significant increase in cover of sediment on the substratum. In the second year following canopy removal, U. pinnatifida abundance declined significantly, associated with a substantial recovery of native canopy-forming species. A feature of the recovery of the native algal canopy was a significant shift in species composition. Species dominant prior to canopy removal showed little if any signs of recovery. The recovery was instead dominated by canopy-forming species that were either rare or absent in the study areas prior to manipulation of the canopy.     

Ideas in theoretical biology

The potential and realized impact of Bohm's views on biology are briefly discussed.     

Ecosystem function and species loss – a microcosm study

There are too many kinds of organisms to be able to study and manage each, yet the loss of a single species can sometimes unravel an ecosystem. Such `fusewire species'– critical in the same sense that an electrical fuse can cut out a whole circuit – would be a rewarding focus for research and management effort. However, this approach can only be effective if these `fusewires' represent but a small proportion of the number of species in the system.  

Aim

To demonstrate methods for measuring what proportion of the species in a system are critical to ecosystem function.  

Methods

The prevalence of fusewire species was measured in manipulative experiments on an aquatic microcosm.  

Results

No single genus deletion caused changes in key characteristics of the system.  

Main conclusions

Comparison of these results with other published studies shows that the proportion of critical fusewire species varies amongst different ecosystems. The oxidation pond microcosms were shown to contain no single species indispensable to system function. They appear to be ill-suited to a management strategy which focuses on priority eukaryote species. However, a single study provides no evidence that this result is general or even typical of other kinds of ecosystems; it is presented here as an empirical model. Other methods of investigation are available; they are less experimentally rigorous but more practical. These could provide important guidance in planning an approach to management in a particular ecosystem.