Assessing the response of forest productivity to climate extremes in Switzerland using model–data fusion

The response of forest productivity to climate extremes strongly depends on ambient environmental and site conditions. To better understand these relationships at a regional scale, we used nearly 800 observation years from 271 permanent long‐term forest monitoring plots across Switzerland, obtained between 1980 and 2017. We assimilated these data into the 3‐PG forest ecosystem model using Bayesian inference, reducing the bias of model predictions from 14% to 5% for forest stem carbon stocks and from 45% to 9% for stem carbon stock changes. We then estimated the productivity of forests dominated by Picea abies and Fagus sylvatica for the period of 1960–2018, and tested for productivity shifts in response to climate along elevational gradient and in extreme years. Simulated net primary productivity (NPP) decreased with elevation (2.86 ± 0.006 Mg C ha^?1 year^?1 km^?1 for P. abies and 0.93 ± 0.010 Mg C ha^?1 year^?1 km^?1 for F. sylvatica). During warm–dry extremes, simulated NPP for both species increased at higher and decreased at lower elevations, with reductions in NPP of more than 25% for up to 21% of the potential species distribution range in Switzerland. Reduced plant water availability had a stronger effect on NPP than temperature during warm‐dry extremes. Importantly, cold–dry extremes had negative impacts on regional forest NPP comparable to warm–dry extremes. Overall, our calibrated model suggests that the response of forest productivity to climate extremes is more complex than simple shift toward higher elevation. Such robust estimates of NPP are key for increasing our understanding of forests ecosystems carbon dynamics under climate extremes.     

基于IBIS模型的1960-2006年中国陆地生态系统碳收支格局研究

定量评估区域陆地生态系统碳收支是生态系统与全球变化科学研究的重要科学问题之一。利用集成生物圈模型（IBIS）对中国陆地生态系统历史时期（1960-2006年）气候及CO₂浓度变化条件下碳收支时空变异特征和发展趋势进行了模拟分析。结果表明,1960-2006年间,中国陆地生态系统净初级生产力（NPP）总量水平约为2.46 GtC/a,总体呈上升趋势,在东南及西南地区最高,其次是长白山及大小兴安岭地区,西北内陆地区的净初级生产力水平最低;1960-2006年间,中国陆地生态系统净生态系统生产力（NEP）总量水平约为0.11 GtC/a,总体呈上升趋势,绝大部分区域表现为碳汇效应,大兴安岭、小兴安岭、长白山、东南地区及西南部分地区碳汇效应较强,西北内陆区表现出弱碳源效应,温带湿润区、高原温带区和高原寒带区碳汇效应呈显著上升趋势;中国11个气候区,NPP与降水均为正相关,除了中温带湿润区、寒温带湿润区、高原温带和高原寒带外,降水是限制植被生长的主要因子。除了高原寒带外,NEP同样表现出与降水的更强相关性,与气温的相关性较弱。经验证,IBIS模型对于中国陆地生态系统碳收支的模拟结果合理,可以为科学预测生态系统的固碳潜力和制定区域碳管理政策提供科学依据。     

Projecting future grassland productivity to assess the sustainability of potential biofuel feedstock areas in the Greater Platte River Basin

This study projects future (e.g., 2050 and 2099) grassland productivities in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB) using ecosystem performance (EP, a surrogate for measuring ecosystem productivity) models and future climate projections. The EP models developed from a previous study were based on the satellite vegetation index, site geophysical and biophysical features, and weather and climate drivers. The future climate data used in this study were derived from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model 3.0 ‘SRES A1B’ (a ‘middle’ emissions path). The main objective of this study is to assess the future sustainability of the potential biofuel feedstock areas identified in a previous study. Results show that the potential biofuel feedstock areas (the more mesic eastern part of the GPRB) will remain productive (i.e., aboveground grassland biomass productivity >2750 kg ha^?1 year^?1) with a slight increasing trend in the future. The spatially averaged EPs for these areas are 3519, 3432, 3557, 3605, 3752, and 3583 kg ha^?1 year^?1 for current site potential (2000–2008 average), 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099, respectively. Therefore, the identified potential biofuel feedstock areas will likely continue to be sustainable for future biofuel development. On the other hand, grasslands identified as having no biofuel potential in the drier western part of the GPRB would be expected to stay unproductive in the future (spatially averaged EPs are 1822, 1691, 1896, 2306, 1994, and 2169 kg ha^?1 year^?1 for site potential, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099). These areas should continue to be unsuitable for biofuel feedstock development in the future. These future grassland productivity estimation maps can help land managers to understand and adapt to the expected changes in future EP in the GPRB and to assess the future sustainability and feasibility of potential biofuel feedstock areas.     

自然生态系统公益及其价值

自然生态系统公益是指自然生态系统及其生态过程所形成的维持人类赖以生态的自然环境条件及其提供的服务.自然生态系统不但为人类提供食物、木材、燃料、纤维以及药物等社会经济发展的重要组成成分,而且还维持着人类赖以生存的生命支持系统,包括空气和水体的净化、缓解洪涝和干旱、土壤的产生及其肥力的维持、分解废物、生物多样性的产生和维持、气候的调节等,没有自然生态系统提供的这些公益人类文明将不再繁荣.人类经济的发展很大程度上依赖自然生态系统公益,但是人类工农业生产活动已经破坏了自然生态系统,如果继续当前的不合理生产方式,人类将在几十年内完全失去全球现有的自然生态系统公益.为了维持自然生态系统的可持续能力,更为了人类自身繁衍和发展,系统地认识并采取有效措施保持自然生态系统公益迫在眉睫.     

湖泊生态系统弹性系数理论及其应用

在湖泊生态系统健康评价的基础上,分析城市湖泊营养状态的特殊性,论证得出响应型和非响应型湖泊的生态系统健康指数(EHI)与营养状态指数(TSI)近似呈二次函数关系.提出湖泊生态系统弹性系数,对生态系统健康指数(EHI)做出适当改进.改进后的生态系统健康指数(EHI′)能够更好地反映各类型湖泊的健康状态,完善了Xu等的EHI理论并扩展了其应用范围,是目前最为接近Costanza对HI定义的可量化计算的数学公式和方法,并成功用于厦门杏林湾生态系统健康评价.     

Co‐benefits,trade‐offs,barriers and policies for greenhouse gas mitigation in the agriculture,forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector

The agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector is responsible for approximately 25% of anthropogenic GHG emissions mainly from deforestation and agricultural emissions from livestock, soil and nutrient management. Mitigation from the sector is thus extremely important in meeting emission reduction targets. The sector offers a variety of cost‐competitive mitigation options with most analyses indicating a decline in emissions largely due to decreasing deforestation rates. Sustainability criteria are needed to guide development and implementation of AFOLU mitigation measures with particular focus on multifunctional systems that allow the delivery of multiple services from land. It is striking that almost all of the positive and negative impacts, opportunities and barriers are context specific, precluding generic statements about which AFOLU mitigation measures have the greatest promise at a global scale. This finding underlines the importance of considering each mitigation strategy on a case‐by‐case basis, systemic effects when implementing mitigation options on the national scale, and suggests that policies need to be flexible enough to allow such assessments. National and international agricultural and forest (climate) policies have the potential to alter the opportunity costs of specific land uses in ways that increase opportunities or barriers for attaining climate change mitigation goals. Policies governing practices in agriculture and in forest conservation and management need to account for both effective mitigation and adaptation and can help to orient practices in agriculture and in forestry towards global sharing of innovative technologies for the efficient use of land resources. Different policy instruments, especially economic incentives and regulatory approaches, are currently being applied however, for its successful implementation it is critical to understand how land‐use decisions are made and how new social, political and economic forces in the future will influence this process.     

陆地生物地球化学模型的应用和发展

以TEM和DNDC模型为例,在分析国外生物地球化学模型发展基础上,按照模拟方法,应用目的,元素类型,生态系统类型和空间尺度等对现有的生物地球化学模型进行了分类,对生物地球化学模型的基本框架（植物,大气和土壤3个组分及植物－大气,植物－土壤和土壤－大气界面等3个界面）,以及内部基本过程（物理的,化学的和生物的过程）进行了总结分析,对目前生物地球化学模型建立中的几个问题（如跨尺度问题,地理信息系统（GIS）和遥感技术结合,考虑人类活动的影响和生物地球化学模型的比较研究）的研究动态进行了评价。     

中国内陆湿地生态系统服务价值评估——以71个湿地案例点为数据源

湿地生态系统为人类生存和发展提供了多种服务功能,不仅包括水资源、水产品等直接输出功能,还包括调蓄洪水、净化水质、调节大气成分等调节服务功能和文化服务功能。通过对已经发表湿地生态系统服务功能价值评价相关的文献进行搜集和整理,得到全国71个湿地案例点的价值评价数据,在此基础上对湿地生态系统各项服务功能在全国各区域的生态系统价值量进行对比分析。全国湿地价值评价结果显示,按照各项服务功能按照价值量高低排序依次为调节气候调蓄洪水涵养水源净化水质保持土壤产品输出固碳释氧生物栖息地旅游休闲科研教育。在对全国湿地进行分区分析得知,东北平原及山区、东部地区和青藏高原地区在各项调节、供给服务功能方面发挥着显著的积极作用,这3个区域同时也是我国湿地的密集分布区。结合不同地理分区下的湿地生态系统服务功能价值量特点,可以实现区域发展与湿地生态环境研究的协同发展,并能够为湿地的保护和建设起到科学、合理的参考方案。     

人类活动对北京空气质量影响的综合生态评价

为给北京未来的空气污染控制政策的制定提供科学依据,采用基于压力-状态-响应模型框架构建的指标体系、生态服务功能估算和历史分析相结合的方法,探讨了人类活动、人工调节措施(1983~2003年)和生命支持系统生态服务功能(北京建城初~2003年)对北京城市生态系统空气质量影响的综合评价方法,结果表明:(1)人类活动对北京城市空气质量综合影响的排序结果前3位排名为2003年(0.619)、2001年(0.598)和2002年(0.578),后3位排名为1983年(0.392)、1984年(0.395)和1985年(0.495),综合影响总体趋向积极且稳步上升;(2)1983~2003年北京市的人类活动对北京城市空气质量消极与积极影响同时增强,城市空气质量自1998年后有所改善;(3)压力指数p与响应指数r呈极显著负相关关系,相关系数-0.995(p<0.001);(4)不同响应指数下的状态指数变化表明随着响应指数的增加,北京空气质量改善,但是在响应力度不强时其消极影响占主位;(5)1900年以前北京市人类活动对空气环境的影响很小,北京市生命支持系统的生态服务功能可以调节其影响;1975年后,北京市生命支持系统的生态服务功能显著下降,城市空气质量恶化,但随着人工调节能力的增强城市空气质量自1998年后趋于改善。     

Ecological restoration of rich fens in Europe and North America: from trial and error to an evidence‐based approach

Fens represent a large array of ecosystem services, including the highest biodiversity found among wetlands, hydrological services, water purification and carbon sequestration. Land‐use change and drainage has severely damaged or annihilated these services in many parts of North America and Europe; restoration plans are urgently needed at the landscape level. We review the major constraints on the restoration of rich fens and fen water bodies in agricultural areas in Europe and disturbed landscapes in North America: (i) habitat quality problems: drought, eutrophication, acidification, and toxicity, and (ii) recolonization problems: species pools, ecosystem fragmentation and connectivity, genetic variability, and invasive species; and here provide possible solutions. We discuss both positive and negative consequences of restoration measures, and their causes. The restoration of wetland ecosystem functioning and services has, for a long time, been based on a trial‐and‐error approach. By presenting research and practice on the restoration of rich fen ecosystems within agricultural areas, we demonstrate the importance of biogeochemical and ecological knowledge at different spatial scales for the management and restoration of biodiversity, water quality, carbon sequestration and other ecosystem services, especially in a changing climate. We define target processes that enable scientists, nature managers, water managers and policy makers to choose between different measures and to predict restoration prospects for different types of deteriorated fens and their starting conditions.