Natural selection. I. Variable environments and uncertain returns on investment

Many studies have analysed how variability in reproductive success affects fitness. However, each study tends to focus on a particular problem, leaving unclear the overall structure of variability in populations. This fractured conceptual framework often causes particular applications to be incomplete or improperly analysed. In this article, I present a concise introduction to the two key aspects of the theory. First, all measures of fitness ultimately arise from the relative comparison of the reproductive success of individuals or genotypes with the average reproductive success in the population. That relative measure creates a diminishing relation between reproductive success and fitness. Diminishing returns reduce fitness in proportion to variability in reproductive success. The relative measurement of success also induces a frequency dependence that favours rare types. Second, variability in populations has a hierarchical structure. Variable success in different traits of an individual affects that individual's variation in reproduction. Correlation between different individuals' reproduction affects variation in the aggregate success of particular alleles across the population. One must consider the hierarchical structure of variability in relation to different consequences of temporal, spatial and developmental variability. Although a complete analysis of variability has many separate parts, this simple framework allows one to see the structure of the whole and to place particular problems in their proper relation to the general theory. The biological understanding of relative success and the hierarchical structure of variability in populations may also contribute to a deeper economic theory of returns under uncertainty.     

Combined use of leaf size and economics traits allows direct comparison of hydrophyte and terrestrial herbaceous adaptive strategies

Background and Aims

Hydrophytes generally exhibit highly acquisitive leaf economics. However, a range of growth forms is evident, from small, free-floating and rapidly growing Lemniden to large, broad-leaved Nymphaeiden, denoting variability in adaptive strategies. Traits used to classify adaptive strategies in terrestrial species, such as canopy height, are not applicable to hydrophytes. We hypothesize that hydrophyte leaf size traits and economics exhibit sufficient overlap with terrestrial species to allow a common classification of plant functional types, sensu Grime''s CSR theory.

Methods

Leaf morpho-functional traits were measured for 61 species from 47 water bodies in lowland continental, sub-alpine and alpine bioclimatic zones in southern Europe and compared against the full leaf economics spectrum and leaf size range of terrestrial herbs, and between hydrophyte growth forms.

Key Results

Hydrophytes differed in the ranges and mean values of traits compared with herbs, but principal components analysis (PCA) demonstrated that both groups shared axes of trait variability: PCA1 encompassed size variation (area and mass), and PCA2 ranged from relatively dense, carbon-rich leaves to nitrogen-rich leaves of high specific leaf area (SLA). Most growth forms exhibited trait syndromes directly equivalent to herbs classified as R adapted, although Nymphaeiden ranged between C and SR adaptation.

Conclusions

Our findings support the hypothesis that hydrophyte adaptive strategy variation reflects fundamental trade-offs in economics and size that govern all plants, and that hydrophyte adaptive strategies can be directly compared with terrestrial species by combining leaf economics and size traits.     

Poverty trap formed by the ecology of infectious diseases

While most of the world has enjoyed exponential economic growth, more than one-sixth of the world is today roughly as poor as their ancestors were many generations ago. Widely accepted general explanations for the persistence of such poverty have been elusive and are needed by the international development community. Building on a well-established model of human infectious diseases, we show how formally integrating simple economic and disease ecology models can naturally give rise to poverty traps, where initial economic and epidemiological conditions determine the long-term trajectory of the health and economic development of a society. This poverty trap may therefore be broken by improving health conditions of the population. More generally, we demonstrate that simple human ecological models can help explain broad patterns of modern economic organization.     

The cost of policy simplification in conservation incentive programs

Incentive payments to private landowners provide a common strategy to conserve biodiversity and enhance the supply of goods and services from ecosystems. To deliver cost-effective improvements in biodiversity, payment schemes must trade-off inefficiencies that result from over-simplified policies with the administrative burden of implementing more complex incentive designs. We examine the effectiveness of different payment schemes using field parameterized, ecological economic models of extensive grazing farms. We focus on profit maximising farm management plans and use bird species as a policy-relevant indicator of biodiversity. Common policy simplifications result in a 49-100% loss in biodiversity benefits depending on the conservation target chosen. Failure to differentiate prices for conservation improvements in space is particularly problematic. Additional implementation costs that accompany more complicated policies are worth bearing even when these constitute a substantial proportion (70% or more) of the payments that would otherwise have been given to farmers.     

Contingent valuation and biodiversity: measuring the user surplus of Kenyan protected areas

The financial returns to Kenyan tourism demonstrate the importance of the country's tourist potential to its economic development. Protected areas and their inhabitants are the principal focus of the tourist industry, the nations's main foreign exchange earner, and a source of wonder and value for a global population of non-users. It might be expected that such assets would be accorded some degree of security with sufficient funding to safeguard current and potential economic benefits. Yet park use is haphazard, and there is frequently little coincidence between those that benefit and those that pay for the continued existence of such areas. Growing economic and demographic pressures which threaten to swamp protected areas only emphasize the implicit subsidy currently paid by Kenyans to support conservation for the benefit of the world at large. In this climate the case for conservation depends on the measurement and capture of economic benefits. Using a contingent valuation survey of expressed preference this study estimates the consumer surplus attached to current non-consumptive use of protected areas by foreign visitors at some $450 million per annum. This sum alone is more than double the best available estimate of opportunity cost and appears to justify current resource use. The estimate is additional to current financial returns from tourism and makes no allowance for other direct and indirect benefits and potential returns from consumptive uses. Measured consumer surplus contains some margin of willingness to pay that could be captured through the current fee structure. Moreover, park fees represent the most accessible market mechanism to finance revenue sharing and additional park investment before potential recourse to emerging global market institutions.     

Fishes, their biology and fisheries management in Lake Peipsi

The management of aquatic weeds in an irrigation scheme is constrained by the agro-economic system in relation to scheme layout, the nature and ecology of the aquatic weeds, agricultural practice, irrigation and drainage requirements, and the available resources for maintenance. The way in which the ecology, engineering and economics of irrigation and drainage channels interact to produce a pattern of management is investigated for the Mwea Irrigation Settlement Scheme, Central Province, Kenya. This is used to develop a simple model which enables the economic implications of varying the aquatic weed management practice to be identified. The model brings the selection of a weed control programme within the principles of engineering economy.     

Trait coordination and environmental filters shape functional trait distributions of forest understory herbs

1. Understanding the drivers of trait selection is critical for resolving community assembly processes. Here, we test the importance of environmental filtering and trait covariance for structuring the functional traits of understory herbaceous communities distributed along a natural environmental resource gradient that varied in soil moisture, temperature, and nitrogen availability, produced by different topographic positions in the southern Appalachian Mountains.
2. To uncover potential differences in community‐level trait responses to the resource gradient, we quantified the averages and variances of both abundance‐weighted and unweighted values for six functional traits (vegetative height, leaf area, specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, leaf nitrogen, and leaf δ¹³C) using 15 individuals of each of the 108 species of understory herbs found at two sites in the southern Appalachians of western North Carolina, USA.
3. Environmental variables were better predictors of weighted than unweighted community‐level average trait values for all but height and leaf N, indicating strong environmental filtering of plant abundance. Community‐level variance patterns also showed increased convergence of abundance‐weighted traits as resource limitation became more severe.
4. Functional trait covariance patterns based on weighted averages were uniform across the gradient, whereas coordination based on unweighted averages was inconsistent and varied with environmental context. In line with these results, structural equation modeling revealed that unweighted community‐average traits responded directly to local environmental variation, whereas weighted community‐average traits responded indirectly to local environmental variation through trait coordination.
5. Our finding that trait coordination is more important for explaining the distribution of weighted than unweighted average trait values along the gradient indicates that environmental filtering acts on multiple traits simultaneously, with abundant species possessing more favorable combinations of traits for maximizing fitness in a given environment.

     

Costs and benefits of cervical screening. III. Cost/benefit analysis of a call of previously unscreened women

A population‐based cervical screening programme issued invitations to women with no record of a previous smear. This call was very good value, at £5780 per life saved or £159 per life‐year saved at 1991 prices. The first priority for the cervical screening service should be comprehensive coverage.