Restoration and Economics: A Union Waiting to Happen?

In this article, our objective is to introduce economics as a tool for the planning, prioritization, and evaluation of restoration projects. Studies that develop economic estimates of public values for ecological restoration employ methods that may be unfamiliar to practitioners. We hope to address this knowledge gap by describing economic concepts in the context of ecological restoration. We have summarized the most common methods for estimating the costs and benefits of restoration projects as well as frameworks for decision analysis and prioritization. These methods are illustrated in a review of the literature as it applies to terrestrial restoration in the United States, with examples of applications of methods to projects. Our hope is that practitioners will consider collaborating with economists to help ensure that restoration costs and benefits are identified and understood.     

Game theory and human evolution: a critique of some recent interpretations of experimental games

Economists and psychologists have been testing Nash equilibrium predictions of game theory models of human behavior. In many instances, humans do not conform to the predictions. These results are of great interest to biologists because they also raise questions about well-known ESS models of cooperation. Cooperation in certain one-shot, anonymous interactions, and a willingness to punish others at a net cost to oneself are some of the most intriguing deviations from standard theory. One proposed explanation for these results that is receiving increasing attention invokes the cultural group selection of 'other regarding' social norms. We critically review this explanation. We conclude that experimental results reveal limits in two implicit models of cognitive structure commonly employed by economists and evolutionary biologists.     

Behavioral contingency analysis

This paper presents a formal symbolic language, with its own specialized vocabulary and grammar, for codifying any behavioral contingency, including the complex multiparty contingencies encountered in law, economics, business, public affairs, sociology, education, and psychotherapy. This language specifies the "if, then" and temporal relationships between acts and their consequences for the parties involved. It provides for the notation of the probabilities, magnitudes, positive or negative valences, or time delays of the consequences for the parties, and for the parties that would perceive, misperceive, not perceive, predict, mispredict, or not predict events. The language's fractal-like hierarchical and recursive grammar provides for the flexible combination and permutation of the modifiers of the language's four nouns: acts, consequences, time intervals, and agents of acts; and its four verbs: consequate, prevent, perceive, and predict-thereby giving the language the ability to describe and codify various nuances of such complex contingencies as fraud, betting, blackmail, various types of games, theft, crime and punishment, contracts, family dynamics, racing, competition, mutual deterrence, feuding, bargaining, deception, borrowing, insurance, elections, global warming, tipping for service, vigilance, sexual overtures, decision making, and mistaken identity. Applications to the management of practical situations and techniques for doing so, as well as applications in current behavior analysis research and neuroscience, are discussed.     

Lions,trophy hunting and beyond: knowledge gaps and why they matter

What does trophy hunting (selective hunting for recreation) contribute to wild lion conservation? Macdonald (Report on Lion Conservation with Particular Respect to the Issue of Trophy Hunting. WildCRU, Oxford, UK, 2016) summarises what we know. We identify unknowns, gaps in the knowledge that inhibit conservation planning, including: the causes of lion mortality, the amount of land used for lion trophy hunting, the extent to which trophy hunting depends on lions for financial viability, and the vulnerability of areas used for hunting to conversion to land not used for wildlife, if trophy hunting ceased. The cost of reversing biodiversity loss exceeds income from tourism, including hunting. New financial models are needed, particularly in view of the expanding human population in Africa.     

Self-deception as self-signalling: a model and experimental evidence

Self-deception has long been the subject of speculation and controversy in psychology, evolutionary biology and philosophy. According to an influential ‘deflationary’ view, the concept is an over-interpretation of what is in reality an instance of motivationally biased judgement. The opposite view takes the interpersonal deception analogy seriously, and holds that some part of the self actively manipulates information so as to mislead the other part. Building on an earlier self-signalling model of Bodner and Prelec, we present a game-theoretic model of self-deception. We propose that two distinct mechanisms collaborate to produce overt expressions of belief: a mechanism responsible for action selection (including verbal statements) and an interpretive mechanism that draws inferences from actions and generates emotional responses consistent with the inferences. The model distinguishes between two modes of self-deception, depending on whether the self-deceived individual regards his own statements as fully credible. The paper concludes with a new experimental study showing that self-deceptive judgements can be reliably and repeatedly elicited with financial incentives in a categorization task, and that the degree of self-deception varies with incentives. The study also finds evidence of the two forms of self-deception. The psychological benefits of self-deception, as measured by confidence, peak at moderate levels.     

Impact of Pinewood Nematode in North America: Present and Future

Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, pinewood nematode (PWN), is the most serious pest of pine forests in Japan, but in North America its role in pine wilt disease is still being studied. The PWN is known to infest many species of Pinus, with P. nigra, P. sylvestris, and P. thunbergii the most susceptible in the eastern United States. Because of its potential, several European countries (Finland, Norway, and Sweden) and Korea have established embargoes against the importation of coniferous wood from regions of the world known to be infested with the PWN. Although the PWN is not considered an economic pest in North American forests, the recent embargoes have established an impact on current forest management practices and an economic impact on North American export trade.     

Economic impact of combined torrefaction and pelletization processes on forestry biomass supply

The cost of supplying wood biomass from forestry operations in remote areas has been an obstacle to expansion of forest‐based bioenergy in much of the western United States. Economies of scale in the production of liquid fuels from lignocellulosic biomass feedstocks favor large centralized biorefineries. Increasing transportation efficiency through torrefaction and pelletization at distributed satellite facilities may serve as a means to expand the utilization of forestry residuals in biofuel production. To investigate this potential, a mixed‐integer linear program was developed to optimize the feedstock supply chain design with and without distributed pretreatment. The model uses techno‐economic assessment of scale‐dependent biomass pretreatment processes from existing literature and multimodal biomass transportation cost evaluations derived from a spatially explicit network analysis as input. In addition, the sensitivity of the optimal system configuration was determined for variations of key input parameters including the production scale of pretreatment facilities, road and rail transportation costs, and feedstock procurement costs. Torrefaction and densification were found to reduce transportation costs by $0.84 per GJ and overall delivered costs by $0.24 per GJ, representing 14.5% and 5.2% cost reductions compared to feedstock collection without pretreatment. Significant uncertainties remain in terms of the costs associated with deploying torrefaction equipment at the scales modeled, but the level of potential cost savings suggests further analysis and development of these alternatives.     

Capuchin monkeys (Sapajus [Cebus] apella) play Nash equilibria in dynamic games,but their decisions are likely not influenced by oxytocin

Comparative approaches to experimental economics have shed light on the evolution of social decision‐making across a range of primate species, including humans. Here we replicate our previous work looking at six pairs of capuchin monkeys' (Sapajus [Cebus] apella) responses to scenarios requiring both coordination (Assurance Game) and anti‐coordination (Hawk‐Dove Game). This then provides a foundation for assessing their responses to two additional games, one with a scenario of beneficial cooperation with a temptation to defect (Prisoner's Dilemma) and one with an environment requiring changing strategies within short temporal proximity (Alternating Economic Game). We additionally explored the effects of exogenous oxytocin on decision‐making. Oxytocin did not affect decisions in any of our games. Results from the first two games largely replicated our previous findings. Responses to the Prisoner's Dilemma were more varied than was seen in previous games, with pairs respectively cooperating, defecting, and failing to establish stable strategies. Such variability indicates that this game may be a good assay for individual differences in social decision‐making. Finally, capuchins were able to flexibly switch between their previously established strategies within each of the different games, even when the games were presented within the same session, requiring strategy adjustments within short temporal proximity. These results build on earlier findings showing that capuchins can alter decision‐making strategies as the context demands, which is likely essential for decision‐making in naturally occurring contexts.     

Continuous bind‐and‐elute protein A capture chromatography: Optimization under process scale column constraints and comparison to batch operation

Recently, continuous downstream processing has become a topic of discussion and analysis at conferences while no industrial applications of continuous downstream processing for biopharmaceutical manufacturing have been reported. There is significant potential to increase the productivity of a Protein A capture step by converting the operation to simulated moving bed (SMB) mode. In this mode, shorter columns are operated at higher process flow and corresponding short residence times. The ability to significantly shorten the product residence time during loading without appreciable capacity loss can dramatically increase productivity of the capture step and consequently reduce the amount of Protein A resin required in the process. Previous studies have not considered the physical limitations of how short columns can be packed and the flow rate limitations due to pressure drop of stacked columns. In this study, we are evaluating the process behavior of a continuous Protein A capture column cycling operation under the known pressure drop constraints of a compressible media. The results are compared to the same resin operated under traditional batch operating conditions. We analyze the optimum system design point for a range of feed concentrations, bed heights, and load residence times and determine achievable productivity for any feed concentration and any column bed height. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 32:938–948, 2016