Statistical shape and appearance models for fast and automated estimation of proximal femur fracture load using 2D finite element models

Estimating the risk of osteoporotic fractures is an important diagnostic step that needs to be taken before medicinal treatment. Densitometry-based criteria are normally used in clinical practice for this purpose. However, densitometry-based techniques could not explain all low-energy fractures. As patient-specific finite element (FE) models allow for consideration of other parameters (e.g. load conditions) that are known to be associated with fracture, they are considered promising candidates for more accurate fracture risk estimation. Nevertheless, they are often time consuming, expensive, and complex to build and may need the type of expertise that is not normally available in clinical settings. In this study, we report the development of an automated platform for estimating proximal femur fracture loads using patient-specific 2D FE models generated using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans. First, a statistical shape and appearance model (SSAM) is built using DXA scans of patients screened for osteoporosis following a low energy fracture. SSAM is then used together with Active Appearance Models (AAM) for automated segmentation of the proximal femur from new unseen DXA scans. The mean point-to-curve error of the automated procedure, i.e. 1.2–1.4 mm, is shown to be only slightly larger than the intra-observer variability of manual segmentation, i.e. 1.0 mm. Moreover, the developed platform automatically meshes the segmented shape, assigns density-based mechanical properties, assigns loads and boundary conditions, submits the 2D FE model for solution, and performs post-processing of the 2D FE simulation data to determine fracture loads. The fracture loads predicted using the manually generated and automatically generated 2D FE models are shown to be very close with a mean difference of around 8.8%. Repeated measures ANOVA showed no significant differences between the fracture loads calculated using FE models manually generated by three independent observers and those calculated using the automatically generated FE models (p>0.05).     

退耕区域发展碳汇产业的生态经济学思考

碳汇产业,即利用植物吸收二氧化碳的潜力及规律,在人工适度干预下获得清洁空气、满足人们生产和生活对生态环境需求的产业,为原有相对均衡或稳定的农业产业-资源系统的优化升级提供突破口和新的增长点.退耕区域生态系统服务中,固碳释氧功能的经济显化、碳汇潜力的迅速提高,以及国内外碳汇交易与碳汇市场的兴起等,为碳汇产业的发展奠定了理论和现实基础.随着碳汇产业的发展,生产经营者必然以提高碳汇产出为核心,形成对碳源的控制及对碳贮量增加路径的开发,重新布局农业产业-资源结构,因而为退耕区域可持续发展带来新的活力;同时,也隐含了下一步需要研发的重点,即碳汇产业融入后的农业产业-资源的配置结构及良性耦合机制.     

Ecosystem engineering in space and time

The ecosystem engineering concept focuses on how organisms physically change the abiotic environment and how this feeds back to the biota. While the concept was formally introduced a little more than 10 years ago, the underpinning of the concept can be traced back to more than a century to the early work of Darwin. The formal application of the idea is yielding new insights into the role of species in ecosystems and many other areas of basic and applied ecology. Here we focus on how temporal, spatial and organizational scales usefully inform the roles played by ecosystem engineers and their incorporation into broader ecological contexts. Two particular, distinguishing features of ecosystem engineers are that they affect the physical space in which other species live and their direct effects can last longer than the lifetime of the organism – engineering can in essence outlive the engineer. Together, these factors identify critical considerations that need to be included in models, experimental and observational work. The ecosystem engineering concept holds particular promise in the area of ecological applications, where influence over abiotic variables and their consequent effects on biotic communities may facilitate ecological restoration and counterbalance anthropogenic influences.     

哀牢山湿性常绿阔叶林木质藤本植物地上部分生物量及其对人为干扰的响应

 木质藤本植物是森林, 尤其是热带和亚热带森林中的重要组分。由于野外调查的困难, 对其生态学的研究相对较少。对哀牢山原生山地湿性常绿阔叶林和4类次生林中的藤本植物进行了调查, 利用48株藤本植物样木实测数据, 采用样本回归分析法, 选取藤本植物的不同参数作为自变量, 分别对冠层和林下两类藤本混合种生物量模型进行了拟合比较, 结合样地内长度≥50 cm的所有藤本植物的调查资料估算了各森林群落藤本植物地上部分生物量, 探讨了原生林中藤本植物地上部分生物量的组成与分布特征, 以及人为干扰对藤本植物地上部分生物量的影响。结果表明: 1)以藤本基径为自变量建立幂函数回归模型, 其相关系数较高, 具有较高的实用价值; 2)该区山地湿性常绿阔叶林中藤本植物地上部分生物量为9.82×10³ kg·hm^–2, 其中冠层藤本(基径≥1.0 cm, 长度≥5.0 m)生物量占藤本植物总生物量的99.70%, 林下藤本(基径<1.0 cm, 长度<5.0 m)的地上部分生物量很低; 3)人为干扰后林下藤本植物的生物量相对增加, 而冠层藤本植物的地上部分生物量显著减少; 经过约100年恢复演替的老龄栎类萌生林藤本植物地上部分生物量才达到接近原生林的水平。     

水资源约束下西北干旱区城市经济发展与城市化阈值

城市化水平阈值是指在水资源硬约束下,在确保经济发展达到一定速度与规模、生态环境建设得到基本保障、并具备足以支撑城市接纳一定数量农民进城转为非农人口的经济能力时,能达到的“农转非”人口占总人口的最大比例。以干旱区河西走廊为例,分析了在水资源约束下城市经济发展总量及其对应的城市化阈值。采用阈值模型计算表明,未来30a在不跨区调水的前提下,河西走廊总需水量的上限阈值为7.81×109m3,其中生态需水、生产需水和生活需水比例调整为13.2:83.5:3.3,总需水量对应的国内生产总值为1.81×1011元,历年平均增长速度最快可达到6.91%,第一、二、三产业结构调整为18.99:47.20:33.81。在总需水量阈值、经济总量、需水结构与产业结构调整优化和经济增长速度不低于7%、农业需水按0.61%的速度退水9.12×108m3、生态需水比例不低于13%等多重条件约束下,求得河西走廊未来30a能够达到的总人口为5.82×106人,城镇非农业人口可达到2.05×106人,城市化水平可达到35.14%,这一水平仅相当于中国2001年的平均城市化水平。在跨区调水1.31×109m3的条件下,城市化水平可望达到47.17%。进而采用总人口人均拥有的GDP、非农业人口人均拥有的第二、三产业增加值、农业人口人均拥有的第一产业增加值3项经济指标对水资源约束下经济发展总量对城市化水平的保障程度进行了验证分析。由于各城市的缺水状况、取水条件、发展性质、发展阶段与经济发展实力与前景等各不相同,致使不同城市之间对应的总需水量、经济总量、经济增长速度和城市化水平等均表现出较大的差异性。     

Seedling interactions in a tropical forest in Panama

Competition is believed to be a central force limiting local diversity and controlling the structure of plant communities. However, it has been proposed that the stressed understory environment limits total understory plant density to such low levels that competitive exclusion cannot be an important factor limiting the local diversity of understory plants. To evaluate the importance of inter-seedling competition, we performed a seedling competition experiment with five shade-tolerant species in a tropical moist forest in Panama. Three-month-old seedlings were transplanted into the forest singly or with their roots intertwined with a single conspecific or heterospecific seedling in all pairwise species combinations. If competition is important, performance (survival, stem height, and number of leaves after one and six years) would be expected to be lowest with a conspecific neighbor and greatest without a neighbor. The experiment was replicated in five 0.24-m² plots at each of 20 sites in tall secondary forest. To test whether seedling performance differed among treatments we fitted linear mixed models (LMM) and generalized linear mixed models (GLMM), treating species identity and microsite (site and plot) as random effects. The five shade-tolerant study species all experienced good establishment with relatively high survival and growth rates. The neighbor treatment consistently affected seedling performance, but the effect was always very small, both in absolute terms and relative to the much stronger species and microsite effects. Seedlings with a conspecific neighbor consistently performed worse than seedlings with a heterospecific neighbor, but having no neighbor generally did not cause superior performance relative to the other treatments. We conclude that direct competitive interactions are relatively unimportant among understory plants in humid tropical forests.