How will climate novelty influence ecological forecasts? Using the Quaternary to assess future reliability

Future climates are projected to be highly novel relative to recent climates. Climate novelty challenges models that correlate ecological patterns to climate variables and then use these relationships to forecast ecological responses to future climate change. Here, we quantify the magnitude and ecological significance of future climate novelty by comparing it to novel climates over the past 21,000 years in North America. We then use relationships between model performance and climate novelty derived from the fossil pollen record from eastern North America to estimate the expected decrease in predictive skill of ecological forecasting models as future climate novelty increases. We show that, in the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) and by late 21st century, future climate novelty is similar to or higher than peak levels of climate novelty over the last 21,000 years. The accuracy of ecological forecasting models is projected to decline steadily over the coming decades in response to increasing climate novelty, although models that incorporate co‐occurrences among species may retain somewhat higher predictive skill. In addition to quantifying future climate novelty in the context of late Quaternary climate change, this work underscores the challenges of making reliable forecasts to an increasingly novel future, while highlighting the need to assess potential avenues for improvement, such as increased reliance on geological analogs for future novel climates and improving existing models by pooling data through time and incorporating assemblage‐level information.     

Dramatic loss of seagrass habitat under projected climate change in the Mediterranean Sea

Although climate warming is affecting most marine ecosystems, the Mediterranean is showing earlier impacts. Foundation seagrasses are already experiencing a well‐documented regression in the Mediterranean which could be aggravated by climate change. Here, we forecast distributions of two seagrasses and contrast predicted loss with discrete regions identified on the basis of extant genetic diversity. Under the worst‐case scenario, Posidonia oceanica might lose 75% of suitable habitat by 2050 and is at risk of functional extinction by 2100, whereas Cymodocea nodosa would lose only 46.5% in that scenario as losses are compensated with gained and stable areas in the Atlantic. Besides, we predict that erosion of present genetic diversity and vicariant processes can happen, as all Mediterranean genetic regions could decrease considerably in extension in future warming scenarios. The functional extinction of Posidonia oceanica would have important ecological impacts and may also lead to the release of the massive carbon stocks these ecosystems stored over millennia.     

Global dung webs: high trophic generalism of dung beetles along the latitudinal diversity gradient

At the global scale, species diversity is known to strongly increase towards the equator for most taxa. According to theory, a higher resource specificity of consumers facilitates the coexistence of a larger number of species and has been suggested as an explanation for the latitudinal diversity gradient. However, only few studies support the predicted increase in specialisation or even showed opposite results. Surprisingly, analyses for detritivores are still missing. Therefore, we performed an analysis on the degree of trophic specialisation of dung beetles. We summarised 45 studies, covering the resource preferences of a total of 994503 individuals, to calculate the dung specificity in each study region. Our results highlighted a significant (4.3‐fold) increase in the diversity of beetles attracted to vertebrate dung towards the equator. However, their resource specificity was low, unrelated to diversity and revealed a highly generalistic use of dung resources that remained similar along the latitudinal gradient.     

Comparing the effects of even‐ and uneven‐aged silviculture on ecological diversity and processes: A review

With an increasing pressure on forested landscapes, conservation areas may fail to maintain biodiversity if they are not supported by the surrounding managed forest matrix. Worldwide, forests are managed by one of two broad approaches—even‐ and uneven‐aged silviculture. In recent decades, there has been rising public pressure against the systematic use of even‐aged silviculture (especially clear‐cutting) because of its perceived negative esthetic and ecological impacts. This led to an increased interest for uneven‐aged silviculture. However, to date, there has been no worldwide ecological comparison of the two approaches, based on multiple indicators. Overall, for the 99 combinations of properties or processes verified (one study may have evaluated more than one property or process), we found nineteen (23) combinations that clearly showed uneven‐aged silviculture improved the evaluated metrics compared to even‐aged silviculture, eleven (16) combinations that showed the opposite, and 60 combinations that were equivocal. Furthermore, many studies were based on a limited study design without either a timescale (44 of the 76) or spatial (54 of the 76) scale consideration. Current views that uneven‐aged silviculture is better suited than even‐aged silviculture for maintaining ecological diversity and processes are not substantiated by our analyses. Our review, by studying a large range of indicators and many different taxonomic groups, also clearly demonstrates that no single approach can be relied on and that both approaches are needed to ensure a greater number of positive impacts. Moreover, the review clearly highlights the importance of maintaining protected areas as some taxonomic groups were found to be negatively affected no matter the management approach used. Finally, our review points to a lack of knowledge for determining the use of even‐ or uneven‐aged silviculture in terms of both their respective proportion in the landscape and their spatial agency.     

Female mate choice of male signals is unlikely to promote ecological adaptation in Enchenopa treehoppers (Hemiptera: Membracidae)

A key question in speciation research is how ecological and sexual divergence arise and interact. We tested the hypothesis that mate choice causes local adaptation and ecological divergence using the rationale that the performance~signal trait relationship should parallel the attractiveness~signal trait relationship. We used female fecundity as a measure of ecological performance. We used a species in the Enchenopa binotata treehopper complex, wherein speciation involves adaptation to novel environments and divergence in sexual communication. We used a full‐sibling, split‐family rearing design to estimate genetic correlations (r_G) between fecundity and signal traits, and compared those relationships against population‐level mate preferences for the signal traits. Animal model estimates for r_G between female fecundity and male signal traits overlapped zero—rejecting the hypothesis—but could reflect sample size limitations. The magnitude of r_G correlated with the strength of the mate preferences for the corresponding signal traits, especially for signal frequency, which has the strongest mate preference and the most divergence in the complex. However, signal frequencies favored by the population‐level mate preference are not associated with high fecundity. Therefore, mate preferences do not appear to have been selected to favor high‐performance genotypes. Our findings suggest that ecological and sexual divergence may arise separately, but reinforce each other, during speciation.     

You stay,but I Hop: Host shifting near and far co‐dominated the evolution of Enchenopa treehoppers

The importance and prevalence of phylogenetic tracking between hosts and dependent organisms caused by co‐evolution and shifting between closely related host species have been debated for decades. Most studies of phylogenetic tracking among phytophagous insects and their host plants have been limited to insects feeding on a narrow range of host species. However, narrow host ranges can confound phylogenetic tracking (phylogenetic tracking hypothesis) with host shifting between hosts of intermediate relationship (intermediate hypothesis). Here, we investigated the evolutionary history of the Enchenopa binotata complex of treehoppers. Each species in this complex has high host fidelity, but the entire complex uses hosts across eight plant orders. The phylogenies of E. binotata were reconstructed to evaluate whether (1) tracking host phylogeny; or (2) shifting between intermediately related host plants better explains the evolutionary history of E. binotata. Our results suggest that E. binotata primarily shifted between both distant and intermediate host plants regardless of host phylogeny and less frequently tracked the phylogeny of their hosts. These findings indicate that phytophagous insects with high host fidelity, such as E. binotata, are capable of adaptation not only to closely related host plants but also to novel hosts, likely with diverse phenology and defense mechanisms.     

A practical introduction to Random Forest for genetic association studies in ecology and evolution

Large genomic studies are becoming increasingly common with advances in sequencing technology, and our ability to understand how genomic variation influences phenotypic variation between individuals has never been greater. The exploration of such relationships first requires the identification of associations between molecular markers and phenotypes. Here, we explore the use of Random Forest (RF), a powerful machine‐learning algorithm, in genomic studies to discern loci underlying both discrete and quantitative traits, particularly when studying wild or nonmodel organisms. RF is becoming increasingly used in ecological and population genetics because, unlike traditional methods, it can efficiently analyse thousands of loci simultaneously and account for nonadditive interactions. However, understanding both the power and limitations of Random Forest is important for its proper implementation and the interpretation of results. We therefore provide a practical introduction to the algorithm and its use for identifying associations between molecular markers and phenotypes, discussing such topics as data limitations, algorithm initiation and optimization, as well as interpretation. We also provide short R tutorials as examples, with the aim of providing a guide to the implementation of the algorithm. Topics discussed here are intended to serve as an entry point for molecular ecologists interested in employing Random Forest to identify trait associations in genomic data sets.     

Natural products as modulators of the nuclear receptors and metabolic sensors LXR,FXR and RXR

Nuclear receptors (NRs) represent attractive targets for the treatment of metabolic syndrome-related diseases. In addition, natural products are an interesting pool of potential ligands since they have been refined under evolutionary pressure to interact with proteins or other biological targets.This review aims to briefly summarize current basic knowledge regarding the liver X (LXR) and farnesoid X receptors (FXR) that form permissive heterodimers with retinoid X receptors (RXR). Natural product-based ligands for these receptors are summarized and the potential of LXR, FXR and RXR as targets in precision medicine is discussed.     

Soil‐dwelling insect pests of tree crops in Sub‐Saharan Africa,problems and management strategies—A review

This review aims to draw the attention of researchers, ecologists and farmers to the threats of soil‐dwelling insect pests on important tree crops in sub‐Saharan Africa, with a special focus on termites. It synthesizes the information on the effects of various factors affecting soil pest occurrence and damage, suggesting that the resultant undesirable effects of soil pests in this region are largely as a result of indiscriminate tree cutting, slash‐and‐burn agriculture and indiscriminate use of pesticides. Major insect orders, their host ranges and the nature of damage on selected tree crops are described. This study further critiques existing soil pest management practices, showing that majority of soil pest management practices are ineffective. Thus, management strategies like “attract and kill” approach based on entomopathogenic fungi need to be studied, developed and emphasized for the management of soil insect pests in sub‐Saharan Africa. A conclusion section attempts to offer suggestions for ways in which future work on soil pests in sub‐Saharan Africa could proceed.     

Distribution and microhabitat use by flatfishes in a Louisiana estuary

We used a 1 m beam trawl to characterize microhabitat use of flatfishes in monthly samples collected in Barataria Bay, Louisiana. Six strata were established along a salinity gradient from the nearshore zone along the Gulf of Mexico to approximately 30 km inland. Randomized sampling within strata characterized flatfish distributions and environmental conditions throughout the bay. Microhabitats were characterized by salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen, depth, distance from shore, and substrate type. In 594 short-duration, beam-trawl samples collected from October 1992 through September 1994, we identified seven flatfish species from 7046 specimens, most of which were juveniles. Four species accounted for 98.3% of all flatfishes. The two most abundant, offshore tonguefish and bay whiff, were euryhaline and widely distributed over the salinity gradient; however, offshore tonguefish were concentrated in the lowermost stratum where bay whiff were uncommon. The third species, fringed flounder, was more abundant in middle and lower bay strata at higher salinities. The fourth species, blackcheek tonguefish, was most common in middle and upper bay strata and declined in abundance in coastal strata. A rotated factor analysis resolved six environmental variables into three major axes that explained 69 percent of the variance and were characterized as seasonal, depth-distance, and substrate-salinity axes. Separation of species and life history intervals in three-dimensional factor space reflected temporal and spatial segregation. Within the four common flatfishes, 14 of 24 variable comparisons showed clear ontogenetic trends in which at least two size-class means differed significantly. Among the common species, temporal differences were reflected by mean temperatures and dissolved oxygen concentrations and spatial differences were reflected by other environmental variables, including depth, distance, substrate, and salinity. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.