Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful?

Modelling strategies for predicting the potential impacts of climate change on the natural distribution of species have often focused on the characterization of a species’ bioclimate envelope. A number of recent critiques have questioned the validity of this approach by pointing to the many factors other than climate that play an important part in determining species distributions and the dynamics of distribution changes. Such factors include biotic interactions, evolutionary change and dispersal ability. This paper reviews and evaluates criticisms of bioclimate envelope models and discusses the implications of these criticisms for the different modelling strategies employed. It is proposed that, although the complexity of the natural system presents fundamental limits to predictive modelling, the bioclimate envelope approach can provide a useful first approximation as to the potentially dramatic impact of climate change on biodiversity. However, it is stressed that the spatial scale at which these models are applied is of fundamental importance, and that model results should not be interpreted without due consideration of the limitations involved. A hierarchical modelling framework is proposed through which some of these limitations can be addressed within a broader, scale‐dependent context.     

Stoichiometric tracking of soil nutrients by a desert insect herbivore

Abstract Biogeochemistry and population biology have developed independently, with few attempts at linkage, almost none of which were mechanistically based. We hypothesize that biogeochemical cycling is linked to herbivore population dynamics through the influence of soil nutrient availability on foliar nutrient content, which constrains herbivore investment in phosphorus (P)‐rich molecules necessary for growth. We show that variation in desert soil P availability is linked to abundance of an insect herbivore (Sabinia setosa) through the influence of soil P on the C:P ratio of the host plant (Prosopis velutina). Low P availability increases C:P ratio of Prosopis leaves, leading to a decline in body %P, %RNA and abundance of Sabinia. Tight association between soil, plant and herbivore P provides the first evidence of a mechanistic pathway linking P biogeochemistry to terrestrial food webs by altering the supply of dietary P to herbivores, thus limiting their capacity for growth by constraining the production of P‐rich cellular ribosomal RNA (rRNA).     

Invasion theory and biological control

Recent advances in the mathematical theory of invasion dynamics have much to offer to biological control. Here we synthesize several results concerning the spatiotemporal dynamics that occur when a biocontrol agent spreads into a population of an invading pest species. We outline conditions under which specialist and generalist predators can influence the density and rate of spatial spread of the pest, including the rather stringent conditions under which a specialist predator can successfully reverse a pest invasion. We next discuss the connections between long distance dispersal and invasive spread, emphasizing the different consequences of fast spreading pests and predators. Recent theory has considered the effects of population stage-structure on invasion dynamics, and we discuss how population demography affects the biological control of invading pests. Because low population densities generally characterize early stages of an invasion, we discuss the lessons invasion theory teaches concerning the detectability of invasions. Stochasticity and density-dependent dynamics are common features of many real invasions, influencing both the spatial character (e.g. patchiness) of pest invasions and the success of biocontrol agents. We conclude by outlining theoretical results delineating how stochastic effects and complex dynamics generated by density dependence can facilitate or impede biological pest control.     

PRIMARY PRODUCTION REQUIRED TO SUPPORT BOTTLENOSE DOLPHINS IN A SALT MARSH ESTUARINE CREEK SYSTEM

We developed a model to estimate the proportion of annual primary production required to support bottlenose dolphins within the 32-km² North Inlet salt marsh creek system in South Carolina, U. S. A. The estimated annual prey consumption by dolphins was compared to the total annual production of prey available to dolphins, as determined from estimates of annual primary production, trophic transfer efficiencies, and the mean trophic level of prey. A best estimate range of 3.2%-6.8% of the total annual primary production of the North Inlet system was required to support an average population of only six dolphins (maximum range of 0.4%–7.0%). Dolphins were estimated to consume 11.1–14.2 metric tons of fish (wet weight) each year in North Inlet. The proportion of North Inlet primary production required to support dolphins increased dramatically during the winter months, when primary production declined but dolphin numbers remained similar. This period was marked by a decline in the abundance of available prey species and by a shift in the creek utilization patterns of dolphins. Despite the numerical scarcity of dolphins in the system, they appear to have a significant ecological impact and may be important predators of overwintering prey species.     

Control of the exotic bulb, Yellow Soldier (Lachenalia reflexa) invading a Banksia woodland, Perth, Western Australia

Summary In recent times managers have become increasingly aware of the South African bulbous species Yellow Soldier ( Lachenalia reflexa ) becoming a serious weed of bushland on the Swan Coastal Plain. In 1998, trials were implemented to investigate control options for Yellow Soldier invading the understorey of a Banksia ( Banksia attenuata ) Woodland west of Perth. Our trials showed that hand removal over two seasons left all natives intact but was very labour intensive, only reducing cover of Yellow Soldier by 44%. It also triggered germination by ephemeral weeds. Wiping the leaves of individual plants with a 10% glyphosate solution was not effective and was also highly labour intensive. Spot spraying with metsulfuron methyl at 0.2 g/15 L (5 g/ha) reduced the cover of Yellow Soldier by 65%, was easier to implement and appeared to have had insignificant effects on natives. We hope that this trial will encourage other workers in the field to undertake controlled trials to refine treatments at restoration sites.     

Residence time and potential range: crucial considerations in modelling plant invasions

A prime aim of invasion biology is to predict which species will become invasive, but retrospective analyses have so far failed to develop robust generalizations. This is because many biological, environmental, and anthropogenic factors interact to determine the distribution of invasive species. However, in this paper we also argue that many analyses of invasiveness have been flawed by not considering several fundamental issues: (1) the range size of an invasive species depends on how much time it has had to spread (its residence time); (2) the range size and spread rate are mediated by the total extent of suitable (i.e. potentially invasible) habitat; and (3) the range size and spread rate depend on the frequency and intensity of introductions (propagule pressure), the position of founder populations in relation to the potential range, and the spatial distribution of the potential range. We explored these considerations using a large set of invasive alien plant species in South Africa for which accurate distribution data and other relevant information were available. Species introduced earlier and those with larger potential ranges had larger current range sizes, but we found no significant effect of the spatial distribution of potential ranges on current range sizes, and data on propagule pressure were largely unavailable. However, crucially, we showed that: (1) including residence time and potential range always significantly increases the explanatory power of the models; and (2) residence time and potential range can affect which factors emerge as significant determinants of invasiveness. Therefore, analyses not including potential range and residence time can come to misleading conclusions. When these factors were taken into account, we found that nitrogen‐fixing plants and plants invading arid regions have spread faster than other species, but these results were phylogenetically constrained. We also show that, when analysed in the context of residence time and potential range, variation in range size among invasive species is implicitly due to variation in spread rates, and, that by explicitly assuming a particular model of spread, it is possible to estimate changes in the rates of plant invasions through time. We believe that invasion biology can develop generalizations that are useful for management, but only in the context of a suitable null model.     

Decline of invasive alien mink (Mustela vison) is concurrent with recovery of native otters (Lutra lutra)

Invasive species often cause the decline of native prey or competitors. We highlight a contrasting example of the large-scale recovery of a native species and the concurrent decline and likely displacement of an established invasive competitor. Invasive American mink Mustela vison became widespread in the British Isles at the same time as native Eurasian otters Lutra lutra were declining as a result of water pollution. In common with other invasive predators, mink cause conservation problems for a range of native prey species, most notably water voles Arvicola terrestris . Recent trends in the distribution of native otters and invasive mink in north-east England were examined using a novel regression modelling approach to analyse presence/absence data from field surveys, corroborated by contemporary predator culling records. Between 1991 and 2002, the percentage of sites where mink signs were found decreased from 80% to 20%, while otter signs increased from 18% to 80%. Annual indices of mink captures on shooting estates increased between 1980 and 1996, but were followed by a decline thereafter. Indices of the incidence of native otters were significantly related to those indicating the decline or displacement of invasive mink. This large-scale field study is supportive of localized experimental evidence for the return of dominant, native otters being concurrent with the decline of the invasive alien mink. The recovery of a dominant native species may represent a reversal of the mesopredator release that allowed invasive mink to establish and may eventually serve to mitigate their impact on native prey species.     

Fish community comparisons along environmental gradients in lakes of France and north-east USA

Aim  To assess whether eight traits of fish communities (species richness, three reproductive traits and four trophic traits) respond similarly to environmental gradients, and consequently display convergence between the lakes of France and north-east USA (NEUSA).
Location  75 French and 168 north-east USA lakes.
Methods  The data encompass fish surveys, the assignment of species into reproductive and trophic guilds, and environmental variables characterizing the lakes and their catchments. The analytical procedure was adapted from the recommendations of Schluter (1986 ) [ Ecology , 67 , 1073–1085].
Results  The comparison of the regional pools of lacustrine fishes indicated that NEUSA was about twice as speciose as France, mostly due to higher species turnover across lakes, although NEUSA lakes were consistently about 20% more speciose than French lakes for a given surface area. Warmer environments were consistently inhabited by a higher proportion of phytophilous and guarder species than were colder lakes. Hence there was convergence in community reproductive traits. Conversely, there was no evidence of convergence in the trophic structure of lacustrine fish communities between regions.
Main conclusions  The influence of temperature on the availability and quality of spawning substrates appears to be a major constraint on present-day lacustrine fish communities. In parallel, phylogenetic constraints, past events such as the diversification of the North American fish fauna, and selective extinctions during Pleistocene glaciations and subsequent recolonizations contribute to explaining the dissimilarities between the communities of the two regions and differences in their relationship to the environment.     

Effects of nutrient loading and extreme rainfall events on coastal tallgrass prairies: invasion intensity, vegetation responses, and carbon and nitrogen distribution

Soil fertility and precipitation are major factors regulating transitions from grasslands to forests. Biotic regulation may influence the effects of these abiotic drivers. In this study, we examined the effects of extreme rainfall events, anthropogenic nutrient loading and insect herbivory on the ability of Chinese tallow tree ( Sapium sebiferum ) to invade coastal prairie to determine how these factors may influence woody invasion of a grassland. We manipulated soil fertility (NPK addition) and simulated variation in frequency of extreme rainfall events in a three growing season, full factorial field experiment. Adding water to or pumping water out of plots simulated increased and decreased rainfall frequencies. We added Sapium seeds and seedlings to each plot and manipulated insect herbivory on transplanted Sapium seedlings with insecticide. We measured soil moisture, Sapium performance, vegetation mass, and carbon and nitrogen in vegetation and soils (0–10 cm deep, 10–20 cm deep). Fertilization increased Sapium invasion intensity by increasing seedling survival, height growth and biomass. Insect damage was low and insect suppression had little effect in all conditions. Recruitment of Sapium from seed was very low and independent of treatments. Vegetation mass was increased by fertilization in both rainfall treatments but not in the ambient moisture treatment. The amount of carbon and nitrogen in plants was increased by fertilization, especially in modified moisture plots. Soil carbon and nitrogen were independent of all treatments. These results suggest that coastal tallgrass prairies are more likely to be impacted by nutrient loading, in terms of invasion severity and nutrient cycling, than by changes in the frequency of extreme rainfall events.     

Ten Years of the Relative Risk Model and Regional Scale Ecological Risk Assessment

It has been 10 years since the publication of the relative risk model (RRM) for regional scale ecological risk assessment. The approach has since been used successfully for a variety of freshwater, marine, and terrestrial environments in North America, South America, and Australia. During this period the types of stressors have been expanded to include more than contaminants. Invasive species, habitat loss, stream alteration and blockage, temperature, change in land use, and climate have been incorporated into the assessments. Major developments in the RRM have included the extensive use of geographical information systems, uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo techniques, and its application to retrospective assessments to determine causation. The future uses of the RRM include assessments for forestry and conservation management, an increasing use in invasive species evaluation, and in sustainability. Developments in risk communication, the use of Bayesian approaches, and in uncertainty analyses are on the horizon.