An application of the theoretical group methods to modeling of complex systems

The applicability of theoretical group methods to studying complex physical and biological systems with the potential of self-organization was demonstrated. The problem of calculating climate sensitivity parameters taking into account the cyclone-anticyclone structure of the atmosphere optically dense in the infrared region is considered as an example.     

Distributional change and conservation on the Andean flank: a palaeoecological perspective

Aim To review the insights that palaeoecology can offer on the threat posed to Andean communities by global climate change. Location The geographical focus is the eastern flank of the tropical Andes, with particular reference to Peru. Method The article presents a synthetic review of the problem. Results Species‐rich communities of the eastern Andean flank are threatened both by development and climate change. If, as predicted, the cloudbase and frost line lifts 600 m elevation this century, there will be a substantial loss of cloud forest habitat. Palaeoecology provides insights on the location and nature of past ecotones, the continuity of niche availability, and estimates for rates and modes of migration. With further warming and drying of lower montane regions, upslope migration of species will be individualistic: a new equilibrium with the altered climate is unlikely to be attained. The zone of agriculture will move upslope faster than the migrating trees and so landscape conversion will negate the ability of some species to respond to the new conditions. Conservation of the lower reaches of modern cloud forest is advocated as a means to limit this foreseeable extinction event. Main Conclusions Climate change will induce changes in plant and animal communities. Human disturbance will invade climatically marginal agricultural lands at the pace of climate change. Rapid migratory response such as that witnessed at the onset of the Holocene may not be evident as climates warm, because Holocene climatic stability has reduced outlying upslope populations that may have served as expansion nuclei. Conservation must aim to maintain plant and animal niches, rather than particular communities of species.     

Quantifying the evidence for ecological synergies

There is increasing concern that multiple drivers of ecological change will interact synergistically to accelerate biodiversity loss. However, the prevalence and magnitude of these interactions remain one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future ecological change. We address this uncertainty by performing a meta-analysis of 112 published factorial experiments that evaluated the impacts of multiple stressors on animal mortality in freshwater, marine and terrestrial communities. We found that, on average, mortalities from the combined action of two stressors were not synergistic and this result was consistent across studies investigating different stressors, study organisms and life-history stages. Furthermore, only one-third of relevant experiments displayed truly synergistic effects, which does not support the prevailing ecological paradigm that synergies are rampant. However, in more than three-quarters of relevant experiments, the outcome of multiple stressor interactions was non-additive (i.e. synergies or antagonisms), suggesting that ecological surprises may be more common than simple additive effects.     

Trap‐shyness subsidence is a threshold function of mark–recapture interval in brown mudfish Neochanna apoda populations

The influence of capture interval on trap shyness, and temperature, rainfall and drought on capture probability (p) in 827 brown mudfish Neochanna apoda was quantified using mark–recapture models. In particular, it was hypothesized that the loss of trapping memory in marked N. apoda would lead to a capture‐interval threshold required to minimize trap shyness. Neochanna apoda trap shyness approximated a threshold response to capture interval, declining rapidly with increasing capture intervals up to 16·5 days, after which p remained constant. Tests for detecting trap‐dependent capture probability in Cormack–Jolly–Seber models failed to detect trap shyness in N. apoda capture histories with capture intervals averaging 16 days. This confirmed the applicability of the 16 day capture‐interval threshold for mark–recapture studies. Instead, N. apoda p was positively influenced by water temperature and rainfall during capture. These results imply that a threshold capture interval is required to minimize the trade‐off between the competing assumptions of population closure and p homogeneity between capture occasions in closed mark–recapture models. Moreover, environmental factors that influence behaviour could potentially confound abundance indices, and consequently abundance trends should be interpreted with caution in the face of long‐term climate change, such as with global warming.     

北京城市生态占水研究

在前人研究的基础上,提出了生态占水的概念及计算方法,构建了生态占水驱动因素分析模型,计算各因素对生态占水变动的贡献率,并采用灰色关联分析法对生态占水-水生态因子进行关联分析。以北京市为例计算1999-2009年的生态占水量,结果显示水量型占水和水质型占水均呈现波动式逐年下降趋势,分别由1999年的25.56亿m³和12.55亿m³减少到2009年的15.65亿m³和4.58亿m³;2003-2005年北京市生态占水率明显高于其它时期,达到80%以上,2006年以后逐步下降,但仍然高于50%;水量型占水是过去10 a中最主要的占水类型。生态占水驱动因素分析结果得出,1999-2009年的总体变动中人均消费水平的提高是促使北京市生态占水增加的关键驱动因素,其次是第二产业增加值。占水-水生态因子关联分析显示,地表取水和污水处理率两个因素与水生境因子的变化有着较强的关联性;退水和地下取水与水环境因子有较强的关联性,地下水埋深和人口两大因素与水安全有着较强的关联性。     

Timing and size of blooms of the ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi in relation to temperature in Narragansett Bay, RI

The ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi is at the northern extreme of its geographic range in Narragansett Bay, an estuary on the northeast coast of the United States. Blooms have typically been observed in late summer and fall according to records from 1950 to 1979. We document an expansion of the seasonal range of this important planktonic predator to include springtime blooms during the 1980s and 1990s. This shift to an earlier seasonal maximum is associated with increasing water temperature in Narragansett Bay. Temperatures in spring have risen, on average, 2 °C from 1950 to 1999 with warm years being associated with the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. During 1999, M. leidyi appeared earlier in spring and was more abundant than during any previous year for which records are available. Changes in the seasonal pattern and abundance of this predator are likely to have important effects on planktonic ecosystem dynamics of Narragansett Bay. These include reduction of zooplankton abundance in spring followed by increases in size and frequency of summer phytoplankton blooms. Earlier blooms of M. leidyi may also reduce survival of eggs and larvae of fish because, as in 1999, they coincide with the period of peak spawning.     

Evolutionary ecology of opsin gene sequence,expression and repertoire

Linking molecular evolution to biological function is a long‐standing challenge in evolutionary biology. Some of the best examples of this involve opsins, the genes that encode the molecular basis of light reception. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, three studies examine opsin gene sequence, expression and repertoire to determine how natural selection has shaped the visual system. First, Escobar‐Camacho et al. ( 2017 ) use opsin repertoire and expression in three Amazonian cichlid species to show that a shift in sensitivity towards longer wavelengths is coincident with the long‐wavelength‐dominated Amazon basin. Second, Stieb et al. ( 2017 ) explore opsin sequence and expression in reef‐dwelling damselfish and find that UV‐ and long‐wavelength vision are both important, but likely for different ecological functions. Lastly, Suvorov et al. ( 2017 ) study an expansive opsin repertoire in the insect order Odonata and find evidence that copy number expansion is consistent with the permanent heterozygote model of gene duplication. Together these studies emphasize the utility of opsin genes for studying both the local adaptation of sensory systems and, more generally, gene family evolution.     

Genomics in a changing arctic: critical questions await the molecular ecologist

Molecular ecology is poised to tackle a host of interesting questions in the coming years. The Arctic provides a unique and rapidly changing environment with a suite of emerging research needs that can be addressed through genetics and genomics. Here we highlight recent research on boreal and tundra ecosystems and put forth a series of questions related to plant and microbial responses to climate change that can benefit from technologies and analytical approaches contained within the molecular ecologist's toolbox. These questions include understanding (i) the mechanisms of plant acquisition and uptake of N in cold soils, (ii) how these processes are mediated by root traits, (iii) the role played by the plant microbiome in cycling C and nutrients within high‐latitude ecosystems and (iv) plant adaptation to extreme Arctic climates. We highlight how contributions can be made in these areas through studies that target model and nonmodel organisms and emphasize that the sequencing of the Populus and Salix genomes provides a valuable resource for scientific discoveries related to the plant microbiome and plant adaptation in the Arctic. Moreover, there exists an exciting role to play in model development, including incorporating genetic and evolutionary knowledge into ecosystem and Earth System Models. In this regard, the molecular ecologist provides a valuable perspective on plant genetics as a driver for community biodiversity, and how ecological and evolutionary forces govern community dynamics in a rapidly changing climate.