A hierarchical nest survival model integrating incomplete temporally varying covariates

Nest success is a critical determinant of the dynamics of avian populations, and nest survival modeling has played a key role in advancing avian ecology and management. Beginning with the development of daily nest survival models, and proceeding through subsequent extensions, the capacity for modeling the effects of hypothesized factors on nest survival has expanded greatly. We extend nest survival models further by introducing an approach to deal with incompletely observed, temporally varying covariates using a hierarchical model. Hierarchical modeling offers a way to separate process and observational components of demographic models to obtain estimates of the parameters of primary interest, and to evaluate structural effects of ecological and management interest. We built a hierarchical model for daily nest survival to analyze nest data from reintroduced whooping cranes (Grus americana) in the Eastern Migratory Population. This reintroduction effort has been beset by poor reproduction, apparently due primarily to nest abandonment by breeding birds. We used the model to assess support for the hypothesis that nest abandonment is caused by harassment from biting insects. We obtained indices of blood‐feeding insect populations based on the spatially interpolated counts of insects captured in carbon dioxide traps. However, insect trapping was not conducted daily, and so we had incomplete information on a temporally variable covariate of interest. We therefore supplemented our nest survival model with a parallel model for estimating the values of the missing insect covariates. We used Bayesian model selection to identify the best predictors of daily nest survival. Our results suggest that the black fly Simulium annulus may be negatively affecting nest survival of reintroduced whooping cranes, with decreasing nest survival as abundance of S. annulus increases. The modeling framework we have developed will be applied in the future to a larger data set to evaluate the biting‐insect hypothesis and other hypotheses for nesting failure in this reintroduced population; resulting inferences will support ongoing efforts to manage this population via an adaptive management approach. Wider application of our approach offers promise for modeling the effects of other temporally varying, but imperfectly observed covariates on nest survival, including the possibility of modeling temporally varying covariates collected from incubating adults.     

Towards an evolutionary theory of the origin of life based on kinetics and thermodynamics

A sudden transition in a system from an inanimate state to the living state—defined on the basis of present day living organisms—would constitute a highly unlikely event hardly predictable from physical laws. From this uncontroversial idea, a self-consistent representation of the origin of life process is built up, which is based on the possibility of a series of intermediate stages. This approach requires a particular kind of stability for these stages—dynamic kinetic stability (DKS)—which is not usually observed in regular chemistry, and which is reflected in the persistence of entities capable of self-reproduction. The necessary connection of this kinetic behaviour with far-from-equilibrium thermodynamic conditions is emphasized and this leads to an evolutionary view for the origin of life in which multiplying entities must be associated with the dissipation of free energy. Any kind of entity involved in this process has to pay the energetic cost of irreversibility, but, by doing so, the contingent emergence of new functions is made feasible. The consequences of these views on the studies of processes by which life can emerge are inferred.     

A dynamic metabolic flux balance based model of fed‐batch fermentation of bordetella pertussis

A mathematical model based on a dynamic metabolic flux balance (DMFB) is developed for a process of fed‐batch fermentation of Bordetella pertussis. The model is based on the maximization of growth rate at each time interval subject to stoichiometric constraints. The model is calibrated and verified with experimental data obtained in two different bioreactor experimental systems. It was found that the model calibration was mostly sensitive to the consumption or production rates of tyrosine and, for high supplementation rates, to the consumption rate of glutamate. Following this calibration the model correctly predicts biomass and by‐products concentrations for different supplementation rates. Comparisons of model predictions to oxygen uptake and carbon emission rates measurements indicate that the TCA cycle is fully functional. © 2013 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 29: 520–531, 2013     

Dynamic Modeling and Experiment of a Fish Robot with a Flexible Tail Fin

This paper presents the dynamic modeling of a flexible tail for a robotic fish. For this purpose firstly, the flexible tail was simplified as a slewing beam actuated by a driving moment. The governing equation of the flexible tail was derived by using the Euler-Bernoulli theory. In this equation, the resistive forces were estimated as a term analogous to viscous damping. Then, the modal analysis method was applied in order to derive an analytical solution of the governing equation, by which the relationship between the driving moment and the lateral movement of the flexible tail was described. Finally, simulations and experiments were carried out and the results were compared to verify the accuracy of the dynamic model. It was proved that the dynamic model of a fish robot with a flexible tail fin well explains the real behavior of robotic fish in underwater environment.     

Instrumented Indentation Investigation on the Viscoelastic Properties of Porcine Cartilage

Articular cartilage lubricates the contact surfaces in human joints and provides a shock-absorbing effect which protects the joint under dynamic loading. However, this shock-absorbing effect is gradually reduced as the result of normal wear, tear and aging-related cartilage loss. Thus, with the increasing average human life expectancy, the issue of joint health has attracted significant interest in recent decades. In developing new materials for the repair or regeneration of damaged articular cartilage, it is essential that the difference in the mechanical properties of healthy and damaged cartilages is well-understood. In the present study, the hardness and Young＇s modulus of damaged and healthy porcine articular cartilage samples are evaluated via a quasi-static nanoindentation technique. A dynamic mechanical analysis method is then applied to determine the viscoelastic properties of the two samples. The results presented in this study provide a useful insight into the mechanical properties of articular cartilage at the mesoscale, and therefore fill an important gap in the literature.     

Maternal eNOS deficiency determines a fatty liver phenotype of the offspring in a sex dependent manner

Maternal environmental factors can impact on the phenotype of the offspring via the induction of epigenetic adaptive mechanisms. The advanced fetal programming hypothesis proposes that maternal genetic variants may influence the offspring's phenotype indirectly via epigenetic modification, despite the absence of a primary genetic defect. To test this hypothesis, heterozygous female eNOS knockout mice and wild type mice were bred with male wild type mice. We then assessed the impact of maternal eNOS deficiency on the liver phenotype of wild type offspring. Birth weight of male wild type offspring born to female heterozygous eNOS knockout mice was reduced compared to offspring of wild type mice. Moreover, the offspring displayed a sex specific liver phenotype, with an increased liver weight, due to steatosis. This was accompanied by sex specific differences in expression and DNA methylation of distinct genes. Liver global DNA methylation was significantly enhanced in both male and female offspring. Also, hepatic parameters of carbohydrate metabolism were reduced in male and female offspring. In addition, male mice displayed reductions in various amino acids in the liver. Maternal genetic alterations, such as partial deletion of the eNOS gene, can affect liver metabolism of wild type offspring without transmission of the intrinsic defect. This occurs in a sex specific way, with more detrimental effects in females. This finding demonstrates that a maternal genetic defect can epigenetically alter the phenotype of the offspring, without inheritance of the defect itself. Importantly, these acquired epigenetic phenotypic changes can persist into adulthood.     

Toward intensifying design of experiments in upstream bioprocess development: An industrial Escherichia coli feasibility study

In this study, step variations in temperature, pH, and carbon substrate feeding rate were performed within five high cell density Escherichia coli fermentations to assess whether intraexperiment step changes, can principally be used to exploit the process operation space in a design of experiment manner. A dynamic process modeling approach was adopted to determine parameter interactions. A bioreactor model was integrated with an artificial neural network that describes biomass and product formation rates as function of varied fed‐batch fermentation conditions for heterologous protein production. A model reliability measure was introduced to assess in which process region the model can be expected to predict process states accurately. It was found that the model could accurately predict process states of multiple fermentations performed at fixed conditions within the determined validity domain. The results suggest that intraexperimental variations of process conditions could be used to reduce the number of experiments by a factor, which in limit would be equivalent to the number of intraexperimental variations per experiment. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 32:1343–1352, 2016     

Oxidative shielding and the cost of reproduction

Life‐history theory assumes that reproduction and lifespan are constrained by trade‐offs which prevent their simultaneous increase. Recently, there has been considerable interest in the possibility that this cost of reproduction is mediated by oxidative stress. However, empirical tests of this theory have yielded equivocal support. We carried out a meta‐analysis to examine associations between reproduction and oxidative damage across markers and tissues. We show that oxidative damage is positively associated with reproductive effort across females of various species. Yet paradoxically, categorical comparisons of breeders versus non‐breeders reveal that transition to the reproductive state is associated with a step‐change reduction in oxidative damage in certain tissues and markers. Developing offspring may be particularly sensitive to harm caused by oxidative damage in mothers. Therefore, such reductions could potentially function to shield reproducing mothers, gametes and developing offspring from oxidative insults that inevitably increase as a consequence of reproductive effort. According to this perspective, we hypothesise that the cost of reproduction is mediated by dual impacts of maternally‐derived oxidative damage on mothers and offspring, and that mothers may be selected to diminish such damage. Such oxidative shielding may explain why many existing studies have concluded that reproduction has little or no oxidative cost. Future advance in life‐history theory therefore needs to take account of potential transgenerational impacts of the mechanisms underlying life‐history trade‐offs.