Robust ecological drought projections for drylands in the 21st century

Dryland ecosystems may be especially vulnerable to expected 21st century increases in temperature and aridity because they are tightly controlled by moisture availability. However, climate impact assessments in drylands are difficult because ecological dynamics are dictated by drought conditions that are difficult to define and complex to estimate from climate conditions alone. In addition, precipitation projections vary substantially among climate models, enhancing variation in overall trajectories for aridity. Here, we constrain this uncertainty by utilizing an ecosystem water balance model to quantify drought conditions with recognized ecological importance, and by identifying changes in ecological drought conditions that are robust among climate models, defined here as when >90% of models agree in the direction of change. Despite limited evidence for robust changes in precipitation, changes in ecological drought are robust over large portions of drylands in the United States and Canada. Our results suggest strong regional differences in long‐term drought trajectories, epitomized by chronic drought increases in southern areas, notably the Upper Gila Mountains and South‐Central Semi‐arid Prairies, and decreases in the north, particularly portions of the Temperate and West‐Central Semi‐arid Prairies. However, we also found that exposure to hot‐dry stress is increasing faster than mean annual temperature over most of these drylands, and those increases are greatest in northern areas. Robust shifts in seasonal drought are most apparent during the cool season; when soil water availability is projected to increase in northern regions and decrease in southern regions. The implications of these robust drought trajectories for ecosystems will vary geographically, and these results provide useful insights about the impact of climate change on these dryland ecosystems. More broadly, this approach of identifying robust changes in ecological drought may be useful for other assessments of climate impacts in drylands and provide a more rigorous foundation for making long‐term strategic resource management decisions.     

Early vigour in wheat: Could it lead to more severe terminal drought stress under elevated atmospheric [CO2] and semi‐arid conditions?

Early vigour in wheat is a trait that has received attention for its benefits reducing evaporation from the soil surface early in the season. However, with the growth enhancement common to crops grown under elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations (e[CO₂]), there is a risk that too much early growth might deplete soil water and lead to more severe terminal drought stress in environments where production relies on stored soil water content. If this is the case, the incorporation of such a trait in wheat breeding programmes might have unintended negative consequences in the future, especially in dry years. We used selected data from cultivars with proven expression of high and low early vigour from the Australian Grains Free Air CO₂ Enrichment (AGFACE) facility, and complemented this analysis with simulation results from two crop growth models which differ in the modelling of leaf area development and crop water use. Grain yield responses to e[CO₂] were lower in the high early vigour group compared to the low early vigour group, and although these differences were not significant, they were corroborated by simulation model results. However, the simulated lower response with high early vigour lines was not caused by an earlier or greater depletion of soil water under e[CO₂] and the mechanisms responsible appear to be related to an earlier saturation of the radiation intercepted. Whether this is the case in the field needs to be further investigated. In addition, there was some evidence that the timing of the drought stress during crop growth influenced the effect of e[CO₂] regardless of the early vigour trait. There is a need for FACE investigations of the value of traits for drought adaptation to be conducted under more severe drought conditions and variable timing of drought stress, a risky but necessary endeavour.     

Do soil inoculants accelerate dryland restoration? A simultaneous assessment of biocrusts and mycorrhizal fungi

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) and arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi are communities of soil organisms often targeted to assist in the achievement of multiple ecological restoration goals. In drylands, benefits conferred from biocrust and AM fungal inoculation, such as improved native plant establishment and soil stabilization, have primarily been studied separately. However, comparisons between these two types of soil inoculants and investigations into potential synergies between them, particularly at the plant community scale, are needed to inform on‐the‐ground management practices in drylands. We conducted two full‐factorial experiments—one in greenhouse mesocosms and one in field plots—to test the effects of AM fungal inoculation, biocrust inoculation, and their interaction on multiple measures of dryland restoration success. Biocrust inoculation promoted soil stabilization and plant drought tolerance, but had mixed effects on native plant diversity (positive in greenhouse, neutral in field) and productivity (negative in greenhouse, neutral in field). In greenhouse mesocosms, biocrust inoculation reduced plant biomass, which was antagonistic to % root length colonized by AM fungi. Inoculation with native or commercial AM fungi did not influence plant establishment, drought tolerance, or soil stabilization in either study, and few synergistic effects of simultaneous inoculation of AM fungi and biocrusts were observed. These results suggest that, depending on the condition of existing soil communities, inoculation with AM fungi may not be necessary to promote dryland restoration goals, while inoculation with salvaged biocrust inoculation may be beneficial in some contexts.     

Soil amendment interacts with invasive grass and drought to uniquely influence aboveground versus belowground biomass in aridland restoration

Water‐holding soil amendments such as super‐absorbent polymer (SAP) may improve native species establishment in restoration but may also interact with precipitation or invasive species such as Bromus tectorum L. (cheatgrass or downy brome) to influence revegetation outcomes. We implemented an experiment at two sites in Colorado, U.S.A., in which we investigated the interactions of drought (66% reduction of ambient rainfall), B. tectorum seed addition (BRTE, 465 seeds/m²), and SAP soil amendment (25 g/m²) on initial plant establishment and 3‐year aboveground and belowground biomass and allocation. At one site, SAP resulted in higher native seeded species establishment but only with ambient precipitation. However, by the third year, we detected no SAP effects on native seeded species biomass. Treatments interacted to influence aboveground and belowground biomass and allocation differently. At one site, a SAP × precipitation interaction resulted in lower belowground biomass in plots with SAP and drought (61.7 ± 7.3 g/m²) than plots with drought alone (91.6 ± 18.1 g/m²). At the other site, a SAP × BRTE interaction resulted in higher belowground biomass in plots with SAP and BRTE (56.6 ± 11.2 g/m²) than BRTE alone (35.0 ± 3.7 g/m²). These patterns were not reflected in aboveground biomass. SAP should be used with caution in aridland restoration because initial positive effects may not translate to long‐term benefits, SAP may uniquely influence aboveground versus belowground biomass, and SAP can interact with environmental variables to impact developing plant communities in positive and negative ways.     

Rainfall manipulation experiments as simulated by terrestrial biosphere models: Where do we stand?

Changes in rainfall amounts and patterns have been observed and are expected to continue in the near future with potentially significant ecological and societal consequences. Modelling vegetation responses to changes in rainfall is thus crucial to project water and carbon cycles in the future. In this study, we present the results of a new model‐data intercomparison project, where we tested the ability of 10 terrestrial biosphere models to reproduce the observed sensitivity of ecosystem productivity to rainfall changes at 10 sites across the globe, in nine of which, rainfall exclusion and/or irrigation experiments had been performed. The key results are as follows: (a) Inter‐model variation is generally large and model agreement varies with timescales. In severely water‐limited sites, models only agree on the interannual variability of evapotranspiration and to a smaller extent on gross primary productivity. In more mesic sites, model agreement for both water and carbon fluxes is typically higher on fine (daily–monthly) timescales and reduces on longer (seasonal–annual) scales. (b) Models on average overestimate the relationship between ecosystem productivity and mean rainfall amounts across sites (in space) and have a low capacity in reproducing the temporal (interannual) sensitivity of vegetation productivity to annual rainfall at a given site, even though observation uncertainty is comparable to inter‐model variability. (c) Most models reproduced the sign of the observed patterns in productivity changes in rainfall manipulation experiments but had a low capacity in reproducing the observed magnitude of productivity changes. Models better reproduced the observed productivity responses due to rainfall exclusion than addition. (d) All models attribute ecosystem productivity changes to the intensity of vegetation stress and peak leaf area, whereas the impact of the change in growing season length is negligible. The relative contribution of the peak leaf area and vegetation stress intensity was highly variable among models.     

Amazonia trees have limited capacity to acclimate plant hydraulic properties in response to long‐term drought

The fate of tropical forests under future climate change is dependent on the capacity of their trees to adjust to drier conditions. The capacity of trees to withstand drought is likely to be determined by traits associated with their hydraulic systems. However, data on whether tropical trees can adjust hydraulic traits when experiencing drought remain rare. We measured plant hydraulic traits (e.g. hydraulic conductivity and embolism resistance) and plant hydraulic system status (e.g. leaf water potential, native embolism and safety margin) on >150 trees from 12 genera (36 species) and spanning a stem size range from 14 to 68 cm diameter at breast height at the world's only long‐running tropical forest drought experiment. Hydraulic traits showed no adjustment following 15 years of experimentally imposed moisture deficit. This failure to adjust resulted in these drought‐stressed trees experiencing significantly lower leaf water potentials, and higher, but variable, levels of native embolism in the branches. This result suggests that hydraulic damage caused by elevated levels of embolism is likely to be one of the key drivers of drought‐induced mortality following long‐term soil moisture deficit. We demonstrate that some hydraulic traits changed with tree size, however, the direction and magnitude of the change was controlled by taxonomic identity. Our results suggest that Amazonian trees, both small and large, have limited capacity to acclimate their hydraulic systems to future droughts, potentially making them more at risk of drought‐induced mortality.