Current Applications of Models of Genetic Effects with Interactions Across the Genome

Models of genetic effects integrate the action of genes, regulatory regions and interactions among alleles across the genome. Such theoretical frameworks are critical for applied studies in at least two ways. First, discovering genetic networks with specific effects underlying traits in populations requires the development of models that implement those effects as parameters—adjusting the implementation of epistasis parameters in genetic models has for instance been a requirement for properly testing for epistasis in gene-mapping studies. Second, studying the properties and implications of models of genetic effects that involve complex genetic networks has proven to be valuable, whether those networks have been revealed for particular organisms or inferred to be of interest from theoretical works and simulations. Here I review the current state of development and recent applications of models of genetic effects. I focus on general models aiming to depict complex genotype-to-phenotype maps and on applications of them to networks of interacting loci.     

Effects of changes in the shape of the intracellular action potential on the peak-to-peak ratio of single muscle fibre potentials

In situ recording of the intracellular action potential (IAP) of human muscle fibres is not yet feasible, and consequently, knowledge about certain IAP characteristics of these IAPs is still limited. The ratio between the amplitudes of the second and first phases (the so-called peak-to-peak ratio, PPR) of a single fibre action potential (SFAP) is known to be closely related to the IAP profile. The PPR of experimentally recorded SFAPs has been found to be largely independent of changes in the fibre-to-electrode (radial) distance. The main goal of this paper is to analyze the effect of changes in different aspects of the IAP spike on the relationship between PPR and radial distance. Based on this analysis, we hypothesize about the characteristics of IAPs obtained experimentally. It was found that the sensitivity of the SFAP PPR to changes in radial distance is essentially governed by the duration of the IAP spike. Assuming that, for mammals, the duration of the IAP rising phase lies within the range 0.2-0.4 ms, we tentatively suggest that the duration of the IAP spike should be over approximately 0.75 ms, with the shape of the spike strongly asymmetric. These IAP characteristics broadly coincide with those observed in mammal IAPs.     

Survival and population growth of a long-lived threatened snake species, Drymarchon couperi (Eastern Indigo Snake)

Demographic data provide a basis for understanding the life history and ecology of species, factors which are vital for informing conservation efforts; however, little is known regarding the population ecology of most snake species, including the threatened Eastern Indigo Snake (Drymarchon couperi). We used 11 years (1999–2009) of capture-mark-recapture (CMR) and 2.5 years (2003–2005) of radiotelemetry data from southeastern Georgia, USA, in a CMR modeling framework to estimate apparent survival, capture and transition probabilities, and evaluate factors influencing these parameters. The model-averaged estimate of overall apparent annual survival probability was 0.700 (±0.030 SE) and is comparable to that obtained from known fate analysis (radiotelemetry) at the same site. Body size positively influenced survival, regardless of sex. Capture probability differed seasonally by sex, suggesting lower capture probability for females in fall and males in winter. There was no evidence for effect of precipitation or site-specific differences in survival. Model averaged estimate of annual adult survival estimated using multistate CMR models was 0.738 ± 0.030 and 0.515 ± 0.189 for subadults. We estimated population growth rate (λ) and elasticity (proportional sensitivity) of λ to vital rates using a stage-structured matrix population model. Population growth rate ranged from 0.96 to 1.03 depending on the value of the probability of transitioning from subadult to adult stage. The λ was proportionally most sensitive to changes in adult survival rate, followed by subadult survival. Our results suggest that protecting adult snakes and their habitats would result in the highest likelihood of long-term population stability and growth.     

Plantlet recruitment is the key demographic transition in invasion by Kalanchoe daigremontiana

Biological invasions have a great impact on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning worldwide. Kalanchoe daigremontiana is a noxious invasive plant in arid zones. Besides being toxic for domestic animals and wildlife, this species inhibits the growth of native plants. Its rapid proliferation in Cerro Saroche National Park (Venezuela) is of great concern because this area hosts several species endemic to the scarce arid zones in the Caribbean. The traits of K. daigremontiana that contribute to its invasive success are unknown. Based on empirical data, we derived a stage structured, stochastic and density-dependent model, to identify characteristics relevant for its establishment. Sensitivity analyses revealed that the establishment of K. daigremontiana depends exclusively on plantlet recruitment. Because asexual plantlets reproduce in less than 1 year populations are able to increase rapidly during the initial phases of invasion, when extinction risks are higher. Sexual seedlings, on the contrary, require a minimum of 3 years to reproduce. As a result, seedling recruitment contributes little to the transient dynamics of the population and therefore cannot warrant the successful establishment of the species. Simulations of various management strategies show that eradication through plant removal may only be achieved if harvest begins shortly after introduction. If a rapid response is not possible, reducing the survival and growth rates of plantlets through biological control is an alternative option. Thus, a strict control of dispersal of plantlets by humans and a continuous monitoring of new invasions should be the first priority for reducing further impact on native species.     

Functional trade‐offs increase species diversity in experimental plant communities

Functional trade‐offs have long been recognised as important mechanisms of species coexistence, but direct experimental evidence for such mechanisms is extremely rare. Here, we test the effect of one classical trade‐off – a negative correlation between seed size and seed number – by establishing microcosm plant communities with positive, negative and no correlation between seed size and seed number and analysing the effect of the seed size/number correlation on species richness. Consistent with theory, a negative correlation between seed size and seed number led to a higher number of species in the communities and a corresponding wider range of seed size (a measure of functional richness) by promoting coexistence of large‐ and small‐seeded species. Our study provides the first direct evidence that a seed size/number trade‐off may contribute to species coexistence, and at a wider context, demonstrates the potential role of functional trade‐offs in maintaining species diversity.     

Model-guided fieldwork: practical guidelines for multidisciplinary research on wildlife ecological and epidemiological dynamics

Infectious disease ecology has recently raised its public profile beyond the scientific community due to the major threats that wildlife infections pose to biological conservation, animal welfare, human health and food security. As we start unravelling the full extent of emerging infectious diseases, there is an urgent need to facilitate multidisciplinary research in this area. Even though research in ecology has always had a strong theoretical component, cultural and technical hurdles often hamper direct collaboration between theoreticians and empiricists. Building upon our collective experience of multidisciplinary research and teaching in this area, we propose practical guidelines to help with effective integration among mathematical modelling, fieldwork and laboratory work. Modelling tools can be used at all steps of a field-based research programme, from the formulation of working hypotheses to field study design and data analysis. We illustrate our model-guided fieldwork framework with two case studies we have been conducting on wildlife infectious diseases: plague transmission in prairie dogs and lyssavirus dynamics in American and African bats. These demonstrate that mechanistic models, if properly integrated in research programmes, can provide a framework for holistic approaches to complex biological systems.     

Phylogenetic density dependence and environmental filtering predict seedling mortality in a tropical forest

Negative density dependence (NDD) and environmental filtering (EF) shape community assembly, but their relative importance is poorly understood. Recent studies have shown that seedling's mortality risk is positively related to the phylogenetic relatedness of neighbours. However, natural enemies, whose depredations often cause NDD, respond to functional traits of hosts rather than phylogenetic relatedness per se. To understand the roles of NDD and EF in community assembly, we assessed the effects on seedling mortality of functional similarity, phylogenetic relatedness and stem density of neighbouring seedlings and adults in a species-rich tropical forest. Mortality risks increased for common species when their functional traits departed substantially from the neighbourhood mean, and for all species when surrounded by close relatives. This indicates that NDD affects community assembly more broadly than does EF, and leads to the tentative conclusion that natural enemies respond to phylogenetically correlated traits. Our results affirm the prominence of NDD in structuring species-rich communities.     

Pollinator‐prey conflict in carnivorous plants

Most carnivorous plants utilize insects in two ways: the flowers attract insects as pollen vectors for sexual reproduction, and the leaves trap insects for nutrients. Feeding on insects has been explained as an adaptation to nutrient‐poor soil, and carnivorous plants have been shown to benefit from insect capture through increased growth, earlier flowering and increased seed production. Most carnivorous plant species seem to benefit from insect pollination, although many species autonomously self‐pollinate and some propagate vegetatively. However, assuming that outcross pollen is advantageous and is a more important determinant of reproductive success than the nutrients gained from prey, there should be a selective pressure on carnivorous plants not to feed on their potential pollen vectors. Therefore, it has been suggested that carnivorous plants are subject to a conflict, often called the pollinator‐prey conflict (PPC). The conflict results from a trade‐off of the benefits from feeding on potentially pollinating insects versus the need to use them as pollen vectors for sexual reproduction. In this review we analyze the conditions under which a PPC may occur, review the evidence for the existence of PPCs in carnivorous plants, and explore the mechanisms that may be in place to prevent or alleviate a PPC. With respect to the latter, we discuss how plant signals such as olfactory and visual cues may play a role in separating the functions of pollinator attraction and prey capture.     

Predicting potential climate change impacts with bioclimate envelope models: a palaeoecological perspective

Aim We assess the realism of bioclimate envelope model projections for anticipated future climates by validating ecosystem reconstructions for the late Quaternary with fossil and pollen data. Specifically, we ask: (1) do climate conditions with no modern analogue negatively affect the accuracy of ecosystem reconstructions? (2) are bioclimate envelope model projections biased towards under‐predicting forested ecosystems? (3) given a palaeoecological perspective, are potential habitat projections for the 21st century within model capabilities? Location Western North America. Methods We used an ensemble classifier modelling approach (RandomForest) to spatially project the climate space of modern ecosystem classes throughout the Holocene (at 6000, 9000, 11,000, 14,000, 16,000, and 21,000 YBP) using palaeoclimate surfaces generated by two general circulation models (GFDL and CCM1). The degree of novel arrangement of climate variables was quantified with the multivariate Mahalanobis distance to the nearest modern climatic equivalent. Model projections were validated against biome classifications inferred from 1460 palaeoecological records. Results Model accuracy assessed against independent palaeoecology data is generally low for the present day, increases for 6000 YBP, and then rapidly declines towards the last glacial maximum, primarily due to the under‐prediction of forested biomes. Misclassifications were closely correlated with the degree of climate dissimilarity from the present day. For future projections, no‐analogue climates unexpectedly emerged in the coastal Pacific Northwest but were absent throughout the rest of the study area. Main conclusions Bioclimate envelope models could approximately reconstruct ecosystem distributions for the mid‐ to late‐Holocene but proved unreliable in the Late Pleistocene. We attribute this failure to a combination of no‐analogue climates and a potential lack of niche conservatism in tree species. However, climate dissimilarities in future projections are comparatively minor (similar to those of the mid‐Holocene), and we conclude that no‐analogue climates should not compromise the accuracy of model predictions for the next century.     

Forecasting species ranges by statistical estimation of ecological niches and spatial population dynamics

Aim The study and prediction of species–environment relationships is currently mainly based on species distribution models. These purely correlative models neglect spatial population dynamics and assume that species distributions are in equilibrium with their environment. This causes biased estimates of species niches and handicaps forecasts of range dynamics under environmental change. Here we aim to develop an approach that statistically estimates process‐based models of range dynamics from data on species distributions and permits a more comprehensive quantification of forecast uncertainties. Innovation We present an approach for the statistical estimation of process‐based dynamic range models (DRMs) that integrate Hutchinson's niche concept with spatial population dynamics. In a hierarchical Bayesian framework the environmental response of demographic rates, local population dynamics and dispersal are estimated conditional upon each other while accounting for various sources of uncertainty. The method thus: (1) jointly infers species niches and spatiotemporal population dynamics from occurrence and abundance data, and (2) provides fully probabilistic forecasts of future range dynamics under environmental change. In a simulation study, we investigate the performance of DRMs for a variety of scenarios that differ in both ecological dynamics and the data used for model estimation. Main conclusions Our results demonstrate the importance of considering dynamic aspects in the collection and analysis of biodiversity data. In combination with informative data, the presented framework has the potential to markedly improve the quantification of ecological niches, the process‐based understanding of range dynamics and the forecasting of species responses to environmental change. It thereby strengthens links between biogeography, population biology and theoretical and applied ecology.