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991.
Mark Fennell James E. Murphy Tommy Gallagher Bruce Osborne 《Global Change Biology》2013,19(4):1262-1274
The growing economic and ecological damage associated with biological invasions, which will likely be exacerbated by climate change, necessitates improved projections of invasive spread. Generally, potential changes in species distribution are investigated using climate envelope models; however, the reliability of such models has been questioned and they are not suitable for use at local scales. At this scale, mechanistic models are more appropriate. This paper discusses some key requirements for mechanistic models and utilises a newly developed model (PSS[gt]) that incorporates the influence of habitat type and related features (e.g., roads and rivers), as well as demographic processes and propagule dispersal dynamics, to model climate induced changes in the distribution of an invasive plant (Gunnera tinctoria) at a local scale. A new methodology is introduced, dynamic baseline benchmarking, which distinguishes climate‐induced alterations in species distributions from other potential drivers of change. Using this approach, it was concluded that climate change, based on IPCC and C4i projections, has the potential to increase the spread‐rate and intensity of G. tinctoria invasions. Increases in the number of individuals were primarily due to intensification of invasion in areas already invaded or in areas projected to be invaded in the dynamic baseline scenario. Temperature had the largest influence on changes in plant distributions. Water availability also had a large influence and introduced the most uncertainty in the projections. Additionally, due to the difficulties of parameterising models such as this, the process has been streamlined by utilising methods for estimating unknown variables and selecting only essential parameters. 相似文献
992.
Modern maize hybrids in Northeast China exhibit increased yield potential and resource use efficiency despite adverse climate change 总被引:10,自引:0,他引:10
Xiaochao Chen Fanjun Chen Yanling Chen Qiang Gao Xiaoli Yang Lixing Yuan Fusuo Zhang Guohua Mi 《Global Change Biology》2013,19(3):923-936
The impact of global changes on food security is of serious concern. Breeding novel crop cultivars adaptable to climate change is one potential solution, but this approach requires an understanding of complex adaptive traits for climate‐change conditions. In this study, plant growth, nitrogen (N) uptake, and yield in relation to climatic resource use efficiency of nine representative maize cultivars released between 1973 and 2000 in China were investigated in a 2‐year field experiment under three N applications. The Hybrid‐Maize model was used to simulate maize yield potential in the period from 1973 to 2011. During the past four decades, the total thermal time (growing degree days) increased whereas the total precipitation and sunshine hours decreased. This climate change led to a reduction of maize potential yield by an average of 12.9% across different hybrids. However, the potential yield of individual hybrids increased by 118.5 kg ha?1 yr?1 with increasing year of release. From 1973 to 2000, the use efficiency of sunshine hours, thermal time, and precipitation resources increased by 37%, 40%, and 41%, respectively. The late developed hybrids showed less reduction in yield potential in current climate conditions than old cultivars, indicating some adaptation to new conditions. Since the mid‐1990s, however, the yield impact of climate change exhibited little change, and even a slight worsening for new cultivars. Modern breeding increased ear fertility and grain‐filling rate, and delayed leaf senescence without modification in net photosynthetic rate. The trade‐off associated with delayed leaf senescence was decreased grain N concentration rather than increased plant N uptake, therefore N agronomic efficiency increased simultaneously. It is concluded that modern maize hybrids tolerate the climatic changes mainly by constitutively optimizing plant productivity. Maize breeding programs in the future should pay more attention to cope with the limiting climate factors specifically. 相似文献
993.
Annual production of crop residues has reached nearly 4 billion metric tons globally. Retention of this large amount of residues on agricultural land can be beneficial to soil C sequestration. Such potential impacts, however, may be offset if residue retention substantially increases soil emissions of N2O, a potent greenhouse gas and ozone depletion substance. Residue effects on soil N2O emissions have gained considerable attention since early 1990s; yet, it is still a great challenge to predict the magnitude and direction of soil N2O emissions following residue amendment. Here, we used a meta‐analysis to assess residue impacts on soil N2O emissions in relation to soil and residue attributes, i.e., soil pH, soil texture, soil water content, residue C and N input, and residue C : N ratio. Residue effects were negatively associated with C : N ratios, but generally residue amendment could not reduce soil N2O emissions, even for C : N ratios well above ca. 30, the threshold for net N immobilization. Residue effects were also comparable to, if not greater than, those of synthetic N fertilizers. In addition, residue effects on soil N2O emissions were positively related to the amounts of residue C input as well as residue effects on soil CO2 respiration. Furthermore, most significant and stimulatory effects occurred at 60–90% soil water‐filled pore space and soil pH 7.1–7.8. Stimulatory effects were also present for all soil textures except sand or clay content ≤10%. However, inhibitory effects were found for soils with >90% water‐filled pore space. Altogether, our meta‐analysis suggests that crop residues played roles beyond N supply for N2O production. Perhaps, by stimulating microbial respiration, crop residues enhanced oxygen depletion and therefore promoted anaerobic conditions for denitrification and N2O production. Our meta‐analysis highlights the necessity to connect the quantity and quality of crop residues with soil properties for predicting soil N2O emissions. 相似文献
994.
The persistent terrestrial carbon sink regulates long‐term climate change, but its size, location, and mechanisms remain uncertain. One of the most promising terrestrial biogeochemical carbon sequestration mechanisms is the occlusion of carbon within phytoliths, the silicified features that deposit within plant tissues. Using phytolith content–biogenic silica content transfer function obtained from our investigation, in combination with published silica content and aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) data of leaf litter and herb layer in China's forests, we estimated the production of phytolith‐occluded carbon (PhytOC) in China's forests. The present annual phytolith carbon sink in China's forests is 1.7 ± 0.4 Tg CO2 yr ? 1, 30% of which is contributed by bamboo because the production flux of PhytOC through tree leaf litter for bamboo is 3–80 times higher than that of other forest types. As a result of national and international bamboo afforestation and reforestation, the potential of phytolith carbon sink for China's forests and world's bamboo can reach 6.8 ± 1.5 and 27.0 ± 6.1 Tg CO2 yr?1, respectively. Forest management practices such as bamboo afforestation and reforestation may significantly enhance the long‐term terrestrial carbon sink and contribute to mitigation of global climate warming. 相似文献
995.
Local temperatures inferred from plant communities suggest strong spatial buffering of climate warming across Northern Europe 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Jonathan Lenoir Bente Jessen Graae Per Arild Aarrestad Inger Greve Alsos W. Scott Armbruster Gunnar Austrheim Claes Bergendorff H. John B. Birks Kari Anne Bråthen Jörg Brunet Hans Henrik Bruun Carl Johan Dahlberg Guillaume Decocq Martin Diekmann Mats Dynesius Rasmus Ejrnæs John‐Arvid Grytnes Kristoffer Hylander Kari Klanderud Miska Luoto Ann Milbau Mari Moora Bettina Nygaard Arvid Odland Virve Tuulia Ravolainen Stefanie Reinhardt Sylvi Marlen Sandvik Fride Høistad Schei James David Mervyn Speed Liv Unn Tveraabak Vigdis Vandvik Liv Guri Velle Risto Virtanen Martin Zobel Jens‐Christian Svenning 《Global Change Biology》2013,19(5):1470-1481
Recent studies from mountainous areas of small spatial extent (<2500 km2) suggest that fine‐grained thermal variability over tens or hundreds of metres exceeds much of the climate warming expected for the coming decades. Such variability in temperature provides buffering to mitigate climate‐change impacts. Is this local spatial buffering restricted to topographically complex terrains? To answer this, we here study fine‐grained thermal variability across a 2500‐km wide latitudinal gradient in Northern Europe encompassing a large array of topographic complexities. We first combined plant community data, Ellenberg temperature indicator values, locally measured temperatures (LmT) and globally interpolated temperatures (GiT) in a modelling framework to infer biologically relevant temperature conditions from plant assemblages within <1000‐m2 units (community‐inferred temperatures: CiT). We then assessed: (1) CiT range (thermal variability) within 1‐km2 units; (2) the relationship between CiT range and topographically and geographically derived predictors at 1‐km resolution; and (3) whether spatial turnover in CiT is greater than spatial turnover in GiT within 100‐km2 units. Ellenberg temperature indicator values in combination with plant assemblages explained 46–72% of variation in LmT and 92–96% of variation in GiT during the growing season (June, July, August). Growing‐season CiT range within 1‐km2 units peaked at 60–65°N and increased with terrain roughness, averaging 1.97 °C (SD = 0.84 °C) and 2.68 °C (SD = 1.26 °C) within the flattest and roughest units respectively. Complex interactions between topography‐related variables and latitude explained 35% of variation in growing‐season CiT range when accounting for sampling effort and residual spatial autocorrelation. Spatial turnover in growing‐season CiT within 100‐km2 units was, on average, 1.8 times greater (0.32 °C km?1) than spatial turnover in growing‐season GiT (0.18 °C km?1). We conclude that thermal variability within 1‐km2 units strongly increases local spatial buffering of future climate warming across Northern Europe, even in the flattest terrains. 相似文献
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1000.
P. Ward E. Poitras D. Leblanc C.A. Gagnon J. Brassard A. Houde 《Journal of applied microbiology》2013,114(5):1435-1448