Is urban spontaneous vegetation rich in species and has potential for exploitation? - A case study in Baoji,China

Abstract

To strengthen the exploitation and utilization of groundcover resources of spontaneous vegetation, this study was carried out by using a linear measurement method for species investigation of spontaneous vegetation in Baoji green space, China. The results showed that 122 spontaneous vegetation species were identified including 100 genera and 38 families. Species richness (SR) in semi-open green space was significantly higher than other green spaces; the Shannon-Wiener diversity index (SHDI) of semi-open and closed green spaces was significantly higher than other green spaces; the Pielou evenness index (E) of closed green space was significantly higher than others. The Sørensen–Dice similarity coefficient (SDI) of the total species between the four type of structural habitats first decreased and then rose along with the increased gradients of the canopy closure, while the SDI of the widely distributed species (frequency ≥ 10) slightly rose in the beginning and subsequently sharply decreased, it is SDI that between semi-closed and closed green is only 19.05%. In addition, the potential application of spontaneous wild vegetation was analyzed and discussed in order to provide a theoretical basis and development ideas for enriching urban landscape characteristics, constructing a better grassland ecosystem in Chinese cities, and developing new urban ecological designs.     

Weight calibration to improve the efficiency of pure risk estimates from case-control samples nested in a cohort

Cohort studies provide information on relative hazards and pure risks of disease. For rare outcomes, large cohorts are needed to have sufficient numbers of events, making it costly to obtain covariate information on all cohort members. We focus on nested case-control designs that are used to estimate relative hazard in the Cox regression model. In 1997, Langholz and Borgan showed that pure risk can also be estimated from nested case-control data. However, these approaches do not take advantage of some covariates that may be available on all cohort members. Researchers have used weight calibration to increase the efficiency of relative hazard estimates from case-cohort studies and nested cased-control studies. Our objective is to extend weight calibration approaches to nested case-control designs to improve precision of estimates of relative hazards and pure risks. We show that calibrating sample weights additionally against follow-up times multiplied by relative hazards during the risk projection period improves estimates of pure risk. Efficiency improvements for relative hazards for variables that are available on the entire cohort also contribute to improved efficiency for pure risks. We develop explicit variance formulas for the weight-calibrated estimates. Simulations show how much precision is improved by calibration and confirm the validity of inference based on asymptotic normality. Examples are provided using data from the American Association of Retired Persons Diet and Health Cohort Study.     

Flush early and avoid the rush? It may depend on where you stand

Optimal escape theory predicts that animals should flee at an optimal distance from the approaching predator (flight initiation distance, FID). However, FID usually increases with increasing alert distance (AD) or starting distance (SD). As an explanation for this pattern, the “flush early and avoid the rush” (FEAR) hypothesis states that prey should escape soon after detecting an approaching predator due to the cost of continuously monitoring risk. However, the positive relationship observed may also result from a mathematical artefact. Meanwhile, it is unknown whether animals would consistently follow this rule in different environmental contexts. We explored escape behaviours in light-vented bulbuls (Pycnonotus sinensis) perched at different heights. FID generally increased with increasing AD and decreasing perch height. The positive relationships between AD and FID were outside the 95% confidence levels of simulated slopes from Monte Carlo simulations, suggesting that the relationships observed reflect biological effects rather than merely a mathematical artefact. Increasing perch height was also associated with longer buffer distance (defined as FID minus AD or SD), suggesting that the birds tend to delay their flush after detecting an approaching predator when perched high. The effects of environmental contexts (and the associated predation risk) on the AD-FID relationship should be considered when performing inter-specific comparisons or meta-analyses.     

Rapid recovery of Dutch gray seal colonies fueled by immigration

Gray seals were first observed breeding in the Dutch Wadden Sea in 1985, after centuries of absence. The breeding colony there is now the largest on the European continent. We describe the changes in gray seal numbers and their geographical expansion, and estimate how these processes were influenced by immigration from other colonies. Counts of hauled out animals were carried out between 1985 and 2013, monitoring three different periods of the seals' annual cycle. Using priors determined for the UK population, a Bayesian demographic model was fitted to pup numbers to estimate the population parameters driving the growth. This included immigration of subadults into the breeding population, which contributed to an average growth rate in the pup counts of 19%/yr, much higher than expected in a closed population. This immigration may account for approximately 35% of the total annual growth. In addition, at least 200 gray seals from the UK visit the area temporarily. Recovery of the population in the Netherlands occurred more than 50 yr after gray seals were protected in the UK. These time scales should be taken into account when studying long living marine mammals, e.g., in impact and conservation studies.     

Natural and human effects on harbor seal abundance and spatial distribution in an Alaskan glacial fjord

Tidewater glacial fjords support the largest populations of harbor seals (Phoca vitulina richardii) in Alaska and are a prime destination for tour ships. Chronic disturbance from ships, however subtle, could impact long‐term population stability. We examined variation in abundance and distribution of harbor seals on floating ice in Disenchantment Bay, Alaska, a tour ship destination for over a century with near daily visitation by ships in the spring/summer over the last decade. Counts of seals by aerial transect showed a sharp decline in May, prior to pupping and the first ships arriving; counts rebounded by the end of June remaining high until August. Seal distribution and abundance peaked in 5–7 tenths ice cover; total area of ice cover showed no effect. Despite regular flushing of seals by ships, we found no broad‐scale patterns in seal abundance and distribution that could be explained by ship presence. We cannot rule out mechanisms of long‐term disturbance, difficult to detect and that might explain notable differences with other, similar sites. Population declines at disturbed glacial sites and the still rising popularity of vessel‐based tourism indicate a need for individual‐based studies on how seals respond to the dynamics of glacial ice environments and human‐caused stresses.     

Estimating demographic parameters for loggerhead sea turtles using mark–recapture data and a multistate model

The survival for adult loggerhead sea turtles from a saturation tagging study on Bald Head Island, NC, USA, was estimated using a multistate model with unobservable states to relax assumptions that are violated when survival is estimated from multistate models and produce more accurate estimates of survival, recapture, and breeding transition probabilities. The influence of time, trap dependence, and low site fidelity to the study nesting beach on survival and recapture were examined. The best model given the data included an imprecise site-fidelity effect on survival, constrained the reproductive cycle to 4 years, and contained a time effect on recapture rates. The estimate of annual survival for adult females was of 0.85, producing the highest estimate in the literature for loggerhead sea turtles. Multistate models should be applied to other nesting beach data for sea turtles to improve survival estimates and in turn the ability to model and manage populations.     

Results and evaluation of a survey to estimate Pacific walrus population size, 20061

In spring 2006, we conducted a collaborative U.S.–Russia survey to estimate abundance of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens). The Bering Sea was partitioned into survey blocks, and a systematic random sample of transects within a subset of the blocks was surveyed with airborne thermal scanners using standard strip‐transect methodology. Counts of walruses in photographed groups were used to model the relation between thermal signatures and the number of walruses in groups, which was used to estimate the number of walruses in groups that were detected by the scanner but not photographed. We also modeled the probability of thermally detecting various‐sized walrus groups to estimate the number of walruses in groups undetected by the scanner. We used data from radio‐tagged walruses to adjust on‐ice estimates to account for walruses in the water during the survey. The estimated area of available habitat averaged 668,000 km² and the area of surveyed blocks was 318,204 km². The number of Pacific walruses within the surveyed area was estimated at 129,000 with 95% confidence limits of 55,000–507,000 individuals. Poor weather conditions precluded surveying in other areas; therefore, this value represents the number of Pacific walruses within about half of potential walrus habitat.