松栎林天然更新模拟与不确定性分析

森林天然更新的复杂性和不确定性是森林生态系统动态预测中的关键问题。本研究引入贝叶斯技术和全局敏感性分析,构建基于竞争、气候和地形3类因子的秦岭松栎林天然更新模型。备选模型形式以泊松(Poisson)模型、负二项(negative binomial,NB)模型、零膨胀泊松(zero-inflated Poisson,ZIP)模型和零膨胀负二项(zero-inflated negative binomial,ZINB)模型为基础。同时,根据模型参数传递的不确定性量化分析结果,阐释影响森林更新小概率事件的主导因子。结果表明: ZINB模型在油松和锐齿栎更新模拟中均优于其他模型。林分总断面积、光截留、坡位和生长季最低温是影响松栎林中油松天然更新的最关键因子;而林分总断面积、坡向与海拔的组合、年均温和最热季节降水量则是影响松栎林中锐齿栎天然更新的关键因子。油松更新模拟中,各类因子对模型输出的不确定性贡献率从小到大依次为: 竞争因子(25%)＜气候因子(29%)＜地形因子(46%);锐齿栎更新模拟中为: 气候因子(12%)＜竞争因子(24%)＜地形因子(64%)。油松天然更新数量对生长季最低温和最干季节降水量为正响应,对最干季节均温为负响应;锐齿栎天然更新数量对年均温、生长季最低温和最热季节降水量为正响应,对最干季节均温为负响应。基于贝叶斯技术的ZINB模型可以量化森林更新的影响因子,并解释参数传递的不确定性,是预测森林天然更新的有力工具。     

A new biological method to control Anobium punctatum,by using the parasitoid wasp Spathius exarator

Biological pest control by means of beneficial organisms is for long part of agriculture and Integrated Pest Management (IPM). A new and efficient strategy to control the most common timber pest species in churches and museums, the furniture beetle Anobium punctatum (De Geer) (Coleoptera: Anobiidae), is based on the parasitoid wasp species Spathius exarator (Linnaeus) (Hymenoptera: Braconidae). Once this braconid wasp detects its host species beneath the surface, it pierces the wood with its ovipositor to lay one single egg onto the beetle larva. After hatching, the wasp larva feeds on the beetle larva thereby killing it. Afterwards, it pupates and emerges through a self-gnawed hole as an adult wasp. The tiny, 0.5-mm-wide exit hole can easily be distinguished from the 1- to 2-mm-wide exit hole of A. punctatum. Laboratory tests revealed that female wasps have an average life span of 85 days and produce a total of 24 offspring, when nutrition is provided. Between 2012 and 2019, braconid wasps were introduced into 54 different A. punctatum infested buildings. Treatment success was monitored by examining exit holes of new beetles and wasps thereby calculating corresponding parasitism rates. After the first year of treatment, parasitism rates were significantly higher with a mean value of 0.15 when compared to untreated objects with a natural parasitism and a mean value of 0.08 (n = 54). Following treatment of three objects over a period of eight years, parasitism rates continuously increased from 0.02 up to 0.31. In a church organ, which was treated during this period, the monitoring revealed a complete suppression of pest activity. These data prove that this biological method of pest control is an efficient, sustainable and non-toxic option to manage the common furniture beetle.     

High-altitude tree growth responses to climate change across the Hindu Kush Himalaya

兴都库什喜马拉雅地区高海拔树木生长对气候变化的响应 高海拔地区快速升温可能导致树木对温度响应更为敏感,而限制高海拔地区树木生长的关键气候因子以及气候变化对树木生长产生多大程度的影响尚不清楚。本研究在兴都库什喜马拉雅地区收集了73 个样点的树轮数据,包括3个优势属的树种(Abies属、Juniperus属和Picea属),样点海拔均在3000 m以上。 将时间动态规整(dynamic time warping)的方法用于建立亚区域年表,以考虑不同站点年表之间变化的同步 性。同时,定量分析了气候因子对树木生长的贡献以及树木生长与气候因子关系的时空动态。研究结果发现,73个站点年表可以聚为3类,且与其所处的生物气候区相对应,即西喜马拉雅地区,中东喜马拉雅地区和藏东南地区。在干旱的西喜马拉雅地区,树木生长与冬、春两季的降水呈正相关关系,而在湿润的藏东南地区,树木生长与冬季温度和春季降水呈正相关关系。树木生长受最低温度的影响最大,特别是冬季温度,其重要性从西到东呈现递增趋势。滑动窗口相关分析表明,在中西喜马拉雅地区,影响树木生长的冬季温度信号在减弱,然而在藏东南地区该信号随着1980年以来的快速升温而增强。本研究结果表明,若该地区升温持续,在西喜马拉雅地区可能会因变暖引起的水分亏缺而造成森林衰退,而在藏东南地区因树木生长得益于变暖而使得森林扩张。     

Modeling vegetation greenness and its climate sensitivity with deep‐learning technology

Climate sensitivity of vegetation has long been explored using statistical or process‐based models. However, great uncertainties still remain due to the methodologies’ deficiency in capturing the complex interactions between climate and vegetation. Here, we developed global gridded climate–vegetation models based on long short‐term memory (LSTM) network, which is a powerful deep‐learning algorithm for long‐time series modeling, to achieve accurate vegetation monitoring and investigate the complex relationship between climate and vegetation. We selected the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) that represents vegetation greenness as model outputs. The climate data (monthly temperature and precipitation) were used as inputs. We trained the networks with data from 1982 to 2003, and the data from 2004 to 2015 were used to validate the models. Error analysis and sensitivity analysis were performed to assess the model errors and investigate the sensitivity of global vegetation to climate change. Results show that models based on deep learning are very effective in simulating and predicting the vegetation greenness dynamics. For models training, the root mean square error (RMSE) is <0.01. Model validation also assure the accuracy of our models. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis of models revealed a spatial pattern of global vegetation to climate, which provides us a new way to investigate the climate sensitivity of vegetation. Our study suggests that it is a good way to integrate deep‐learning method to monitor the vegetation change under global change. In the future, we can explore more complex climatic and ecological systems with deep learning and coupling with certain physical process to better understand the nature.     

Reply to Manger’s Commentary on “A quantitative test of the thermogenesis hypothesis of cetacean brain evolution,using phylogenetic comparative methods”

In his Commentary (Manger PR. 2009. Subglacial cetaceans and other mathematical mysteries: a Commentary on “A quantitative test of the thermogenesis hypothesis of cetacean brain evolution, using phylogenetic comparative methods” by C. Maximino. Mar Fresh Behav Physiol. 42: 359–362) on my paper (Maximino C. 2009. A quantitative test of the thermogenesis hypothesis of cetacean brain evolution, using phylogenetic comparative methods. Mar Freshwater Behav Physiol. 42:1–17), Dr Paul Manger noted four errors in the quantitative analysis of the relationship between cetacean encephalization quotients (EQs) and water temperatures, which I suggested was a test of his thermogenesis hypothesis (Manger PR. 2006 Manger, PR. 2006. An examination of cetacean brain structure with a novel hypothesis correlating thermogenesis to the evolution of a big brain. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc, 81: 293–338.  [Google Scholar]. An examination of cetacean brain structure with a novel hypothesis correlating thermogenesis to the evolution of a big brain. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc. 81:293–338). These referred to incorrect raw data on water temperatures for two species, odd use of midpoint temperatures as independent variable, lack of inclusion of data on Mysticeti and the use of a differently derived EQ and midpoints instead of the EQs proposed by Manger and temperature ranges; Dr Manger proposed that these errors invalidate the analysis, with special emphasis in an observation that, since my paper did not address the relationship between EQs and temperature range, it did not actually test the thermogenesis hypothesis. In this Reply, I apologize for the mistakes which were made, and show that re-analysis using all the proposed alterations do not qualitatively or quantitatively alter the final result. I also argue that the relationship between phylogenetically correct EQs and midpoint temperatures is a better test of the thermogenesis hypothesis than the relationship between non-phylogenetic EQs and temperature ranges.     

Surface EMG-force modelling for the biceps brachii and its experimental evaluation during isometric isotonic contractions

The aim of this study was to evaluate a surface electromyography (sEMG) signal and force model for the biceps brachii muscle during isotonic isometric contractions for an experimental set-up as well as for a simulation. The proposed model includes a new rate coding scheme and a new analytical formulation of the muscle force generation. The proposed rate coding scheme supposes varying minimum and peak firing frequencies according to motor unit (MU) type (I or II). Practically, the proposed analytical mechanogram allows us to tune the force contribution of each active MU according to its type and instantaneous firing rate. A subsequent sensitivity analysis using a Monte Carlo simulation allows deducing optimised input parameter ranges that guarantee a realistic behaviour of the proposed model according to two existing criteria and an additional one. In fact, this proposed new criterion evaluates the force generation efficiency according to neural intent. Experiments and simulations, at varying force levels and using the optimised parameter ranges, were performed to evaluate the proposed model. As a result, our study showed that the proposed sEMG–force modelling can emulate the biceps brachii behaviour during isotonic isometric contractions.     

Night,sight, and feeling safe: An exploration of aspects of Warlpiri and Western sleep

Sleeping leaves those asleep ‘blind’ and hence oblivious to potential or real danger. Such dangers are heightened further and more feared at night, the main time for sleep. In this article, I link ideas about sleep and nighttime social practices with questions about vision. My aim is to tease out some of the meanings implied in cross‐culturally distinct solutions to the protection of sleepers at night. I proceed by contrasting ethnographic data from the remote Aboriginal settlement of Yuendumu, Northern Territory, with select elements of the cultural history of Euro‐American sleep. Through ethnographic vignettes, I illuminate how people at Yuendumu commonly arrange themselves in yunta, or rows of sleepers, at night, and how some sleepers awake regularly during the night to ensure the others’ safety. I contrast this with Euro‐American ways of providing a sense of safety to the sleeper through practices of domestic fortification. My comparison revolves around the notion of sight, which in the Euro‐American West is clearly linked to ideas of knowledge, and at Yuendumu, as I demonstrate, imbued with a sense of care. I conclude by relating the gained insights to participant observation as anthropological method.