Effects of residual smoothing on the posterior of the fixed effects in disease-mapping models

Disease-mapping models for areal data often have fixed effects to measure the effect of spatially varying covariates and random effects with a conditionally autoregressive (CAR) prior to account for spatial clustering. In such spatial regressions, the objective may be to estimate the fixed effects while accounting for the spatial correlation. But adding the CAR random effects can cause large changes in the posterior mean and variance of fixed effects compared to the nonspatial regression model. This article explores the impact of adding spatial random effects on fixed effect estimates and posterior variance. Diagnostics are proposed to measure posterior variance inflation from collinearity between the fixed effect covariates and the CAR random effects and to measure each region's influence on the change in the fixed effect's estimates by adding the CAR random effects. A new model that alleviates the collinearity between the fixed effect covariates and the CAR random effects is developed and extensions of these methods to point-referenced data models are discussed.     

Neuroprotective and anticonvulsant effects of organic and conventional purple grape juices on seizures in Wistar rats induced by pentylenetetrazole

Epilepsy is the most common neurological disorder worldwide. Studies have shown that recurrent seizures may increase the concentration of reactive oxygen species, which can lead to oxidative stress and neuronal damage. These seizures result in substantial deleterious effects on an individual's health. Organic and conventional grape juices are rich in polyphenols, compounds with important antioxidant activity. However, these juices could have differences in their polyphenol content. The aim of this study was to investigate the neuroprotective and anticonvulsant effects of organic and conventional grape juice treatments in Wistar rats against pentylenetetrazole (a convulsant drug)-induced damage. In addition, we evaluated potential behavioral changes in rats treated with the juices and the polyphenolic profile of those samples. Animals (n=16 in each group) received treatment with saline, organic or conventional grape juice for 17 days. On the eighteenth day, behavioral changes were evaluated by an open field test. Afterwards, half of the rats from each group received pentylenetetrazole and were observed for 30 min to evaluate possible seizure characteristics. The animals were subsequently killed by decapitation and their hippocampus, cerebellum and cerebral cortex tissues were isolated. The results of this study showed that neither organic nor conventional grape juice altered the behavior parameters, and no statistical differences were observed in the seizure characteristics of the groups. Nevertheless, both juice types were able to protect from lipid and protein oxidative damage, decrease nitric oxide content and increase enzymatic (superoxide dismutase and catalase) and non-enzymatic (sulfhydryl protein) antioxidant defenses in brain tissues following pentylenetetrazole-induced seizures. In general, organic juice showed superior results in each test, probably due to its higher polyphenol content relative to conventional juice. These results indicate that grape juices can provide further insight into natural neuroprotective compounds and may lead to the development of new therapeutic strategies for epileptic patients.     

近年来国内外橡胶树育种研究新进展

从常规育种、高产育种和抗性育种方面综述近年来国外橡胶树育种研究的新进展,并结合我国橡胶树育种现状,提出我国橡胶树育种的方向,以期为我国橡胶树产量性状、遗传改良和抗逆性育种等提供借鉴.     

含不可忽略缺失数据非线性再生散度模型参数的Bayes估计

给出协变量带有不可忽略缺失数据的非线性再生散度模型的Bayes方法,缺失数据机制由Logistic回归模型来确定.Gibbs抽样技术和Metropolis-Hastings算法(简称MH算法)用来得到模型参数、缺失数据机制中回归系数的联合Bayes估计,并用实例加以说明.     

The type and timing of social information alters offspring production

The acquisition and use of information are essential for decision-making in an uncertain world. The use of social information, or information from the behaviour of others, may be a common and efficient mechanism to improve estimates of resource quality by animals. According to theory, social information cues with higher information content should have a greater influence on decision-making, and current information should be weighed more than prior information. However, experimental tests of these hypotheses remain scarce. We exposed female cactus bugs (Chelinidea vittiger) to different types of social information (the presence of conspecific eggs or nymphs) presented at different times (current or prior to egg laying) to determine the influence of social information on offspring production. We found that social information substantially altered the number of eggs produced. The presence of conspecific eggs, regardless of timing, consistently increased egg production, whereas nymphs only increased egg production when present during egg laying. We conclude that the type and timing of social information may have an important, yet unappreciated, influence on reproductive allocation.     

Modeling longitudinal spatial periodontal data: a spatially adaptive model with tools for specifying priors and checking fit

Summary .   Attachment loss (AL), the distance down a tooth's root that is no longer attached to surrounding bone by periodontal ligament, is a common measure of periodontal disease. In this article, we develop a spatiotemporal model to monitor the progression of AL. Our model is an extension of the conditionally autoregressive (CAR) prior, which spatially smooths estimates toward their neighbors. However, because AL often exhibits a burst of large values in space and time, we develop a nonstationary spatiotemporal CAR model that allows the degree of spatial and temporal smoothing to vary in different regions of the mouth. To do this, we assign each AL measurement site its own set of variance parameters and spatially smooth the variances with spatial priors. We propose a heuristic to measure the complexity of the site-specific variances, and use it to select priors that ensure parameters in the model are well identified. In data from a clinical trial, this model improves the fit compared to the usual dynamic CAR model for 90 of 99 patients' AL measurements.     

Shelter competition between resident male red swamp crayfish Procambarus clarkii (Girard) and conspecific intruders varying by sex and reproductive status

The shelter defense dynamics of reproductively active (Form I) male red swamp crayfish Procambarus clarkii (Girard) were investigated by staging serial intrusions by male, maternal or non-maternal female conspecifics after one day of residence. The male residents showed a direct contest advantage only against non-maternal females, and won a significantly higher proportion of the encounters against non-maternal females than against either male or maternal female intruders. However, there was no significant difference in success against male or maternal female intruders. Further experiments against male intruders showed that increasing male prior residence to either 2 or 4 days did not significantly improve the residents' proportion of successful encounters. A final experiment revealed extremely low shelter fidelity in male P. clarkii, the most likely reason why male shelter defense against conspecific males and maternal females is not successful. These results, combined with those of past research, suggest that non-maternal females, juveniles and recently molted conspecifics are most vulnerable to predation and cannibalism, since males and maternal females easily out-compete non-maternal females for shelter, and adults out-compete juveniles. These findings may have implications for P. clarkii aquaculture and general management.     

基于分段线性模板先验的正电子成像重建

正电子发射成像的噪声性能较其它的一些成像方法要差得多,为了提高重建结果的分辨率和噪声特性,一般采用Bayesian重建。Bayesian方法需要选择恰当的先验,这种先验既要能够抑止重建结果的噪声,又要能够保留图像密度的突变信息。分段线性模板图像模型利用从其它模态的形态学成像得到的组织结构信息,构造适合要求的先验分布函数,由于采用的先验函数是非凸的并包含超验参数,一般的优化方法难以处理,采用动态后验模拟的方法可以很好地解决这些问题。     

Utility of liquid-based cytology in endometrial pathology: diagnosis of endometrial carcinoma

Objective: The purpose of this study was to examine the utility of SurePath‐liquid‐based cytology (LBC) compared to conventional cytological preparations (CCP) in the identification of endometrial carcinoma. Methods: During a 13‐month period, direct endometrial samples were collected from 120 patients using the Uterobrush. The material comprised 30 cases each of endometrial carcinoma, proliferative endometrium, secretory endometrium and atrophic endometrium. The following points were investigated:(i) the frequency of cell clumps in endometrial carcinoma; (ii) the area of cell nuclei; (iii) overlapping nuclei. Results: (i) Comparison of the frequency of cell clumps with irregular protrusion pattern and papillo‐tubular pattern showed no statistically significant difference in either type of cell clump between CCP and LBC. (ii) Comparison of the nuclear area of cells showed a sequential decrease from endometrial carcinoma to secretory endometrium, to proliferative endometrium and to atrophic endometrium, which was significant in CCP and LBC. (iii) Nuclear area was significantly lower with LBC compared with CCP in endometrial carcinoma, secretory endometrium and proliferative endometrium but not atrophic endometrium. (iv) Comparison of the degree of overlapping nuclei showed a sequential decrease from endometrial carcinoma to proliferative endometrium, to secretory endometrium and to atrophic endometrium, which was significant in both CCP and LBC. (v) Comparison of the degree of overlapping nuclei between CCP and LBC showed no significant difference for normal types of endometrium, but LBC had significantly higher values (P < 0.0001) in endometrial carcinoma than in CCP. Conclusions: The results of this study revealed that applying diagnostic criteria used in CCP to LBC was easy to achieve, because LBC had excellent cytoarchitectural preservation and cells were well presented. Although we have not examined all cytological features of malignancy and have not considered atypical hyperplasia, we believe that this method may be a useful tool in the diagnosis of endometrial cytology.