中国森林生态资产价值评估

森林资源是支撑人类社会发展的重要生态资产,探索森林生态资产价值的评估方法,对合理利用和有效保护森林资源具有重要意义。运用净现值法计算了中国森林生态资产总价值为698.5万亿元,其中直接价值为7.5万亿元,包括林木价值4.5万亿元和林下产品价值3.0万亿元;间接价值为691万亿元,其中,气候调节价值量最高,占间接价值的48%;水源涵养价值量次之,占间接价值的27%。从森林生态资产总价值的分布来看,广西省、广东省和云南省位于全国前列,分别占森林生态资产总价值的10%、9%和9%。单位面积森林生态资产价值表现为海南省、浙江省和广东省较高,分别为954万元/hm2,915万元/hm2和888万元/hm2。森林生态资产价值研究为我国编制自然资源资产负债表提供理论依据,因此全面的估算中国森林生态资产价值很有意义。     

南方主要鲜食葡萄生长结实特性与温度关系的研究

对南方鲜食葡萄品种生长结实特性与温度关系的研究表明,各品种春梢生长与气温,尤其是有效积温的关系符合Y=aX³+bX²+cX三次方程.依据拟合方程得:生长速率最快的是巨峰,当有效积温达190.68℃时,温度每增加10℃新梢生长0.43433cm;生长速率最慢且对温度不敏感的是蜜香宝,有效积温高达367.19℃时,新梢生长速率仅为0.17150cm.对果实经济性状综合评价和品种优良特性的模糊评判表明,值得推广的品种有巨峰、京亚、藤稔、蜜香宝、龙宝;限制发展的品种有紫珍香;淘汰早生高墨、黑丰.     

城市湖泊退化过程中水生态系统服务功能价值演变评估——以肇庆仙女湖为例

运用市场价值法、碳税法、造林成本法和工业制氧影子价格法、影子工程法以及价格替代等方法,以肇庆仙女湖为例,对城市湖泊水生态系统自然资产价值部分的演变进行了评估。结果得出,仙女湖水生态系统退化过程中,导致水生态系统有些服务功能的大幅度降低,如大气调节功能价值由1999年的460124元降低到2004年的8元、水质净化功能价值由1999年的11480元降到2004年的904元等;但并非各项生态系统服务功能价值都降低,有些项目的生态系统服务功能可保持不变,如水资源调节功能价值;甚至升高,如物质生产价值由1999年的152400元增加到2004年的241200元。该研究给退化生态系统的修复带来很大启示,即在退化生态系统的修复过程中要针对性的就退化生态系统的结构和功能进行修复,提高生态系统的总体服务功能价值,而并非退化生态系统的各项服务均需提高,有些项目的生态系统服务价值可以保持不变,甚至降低。     

广义森林生态效益货币量的空间模型分析

从广义森林生态效益计量概念出发,提出了广义森林生态效益货币量和森林生态环境空间的定义。根据广义森林生态环境的空间模型分析概念和实现空间模型分析的3个基本条件,采用Arcview和Autocad图形向GIS空间数据转换的方法对1986、1949和1896年黑龙江省森林资源空间图形资料和反推的小班资源数据库,通过环境图象叠置分析获得森林资源与环境的空间图象,建立广义森林生态效益经济计量模型,由此实现广义森林生态效益的GIS空间分析。结果表明：森林生态效益货币量的分布近似呈正态分布,各森林生态效益经济总量各占一定比重。利用GIS空间分析功能作出的黑龙江省森林生态效益主产区的空间分布图显示,黑龙江省森林生态效益的主产区主要分布在镜泊湖、兴凯湖、汤旺河、嫩江等江河的源头。通过分析黑龙江省森林生态效益货币总量的动态,得出1986年的黑龙江省森林生态效益比1949年下降38％,比原生状态的1896年下降59％。森林生态效益的下降与森林资源的数量和质量的下降呈正相关,森林生态效益的变化总是要滞后于森林资源的变化。     

Women’s preferences regarding options for management of atypical,borderline or low‐grade cervical cytological abnormalities: a review of the evidence

M. Z. Sadique and R. Legood Women’s preferences regarding options for management of atypical, borderline or low‐grade cervical cytological abnormalities: a review of the evidence Objectives: To review the evidence on women’s preferences for and valuation of alternative management pathways following identification of low‐grade cytological abnormalities as part of routine cervical cancer screening. The aim was to identify empirical studies evaluating women’s preferences regarding alternative management pathways and to compare the impact of alternative elicitation methods on results. Methods: A systematic review of the literature was conducted using the online bibliographic information service PubMed database. Empirical studies were identified that elicited general preferences, utilities or valuations based on willingness to pay (WTP) with respect to management of low‐grade cytology results. Data were extracted on the methodology used and the empirical results. Results: Where quality of life data were elicited directly from patients that were undergoing management of low‐grade abnormalities utilizing direct elicitation techniques such as WTP, general preference questionnaires and the Euroqol, the studies tended towards a preference in favour of HPV testing (and colposcopy referral if HPV positive) rather than repeat cytology. In contrast, where studies included the general population and presented hypothetical scenarios of treatment pathways, and explicitly tried to incorporate assessment of process utility, the evidence indicated a slight tendency to favour repeat cytology. Conclusion: Consideration of patient preferences in the management of low‐grade cytology is important for designing screening protocols. The reviewed studies indicate that potentially different conclusions may be drawn depending on the elicitation methodology and selection of participants in the research.     

Ecosystem services and agriculture: tradeoffs and synergies

Agricultural ecosystems provide humans with food, forage, bioenergy and pharmaceuticals and are essential to human wellbeing. These systems rely on ecosystem services provided by natural ecosystems, including pollination, biological pest control, maintenance of soil structure and fertility, nutrient cycling and hydrological services. Preliminary assessments indicate that the value of these ecosystem services to agriculture is enormous and often underappreciated. Agroecosystems also produce a variety of ecosystem services, such as regulation of soil and water quality, carbon sequestration, support for biodiversity and cultural services. Depending on management practices, agriculture can also be the source of numerous disservices, including loss of wildlife habitat, nutrient runoff, sedimentation of waterways, greenhouse gas emissions, and pesticide poisoning of humans and non-target species. The tradeoffs that may occur between provisioning services and other ecosystem services and disservices should be evaluated in terms of spatial scale, temporal scale and reversibility. As more effective methods for valuing ecosystem services become available, the potential for ‘win–win’ scenarios increases. Under all scenarios, appropriate agricultural management practices are critical to realizing the benefits of ecosystem services and reducing disservices from agricultural activities.     

·我国创新药研发模式与价值评估(II)

创新药研发对企业研发能力要求高,目前我国大部分药企仍然处于仿创阶段,但随着政策环境的改善,国家不断释放鼓励创新信号, 临前所未有的挑战,呼唤历史发展的转折点。 3.1 由仿到创的大型创新药企——1.0模式 2015 年临床数据自查、仿制药一致性评价、化学药 国内当下的政策环境和市场环境,使得我国创新 品注册分类改革工作方案、上市许可人制度试点、药监市 朱迅 创新型药企不断涌现,传统药企积极布局,创新药物迎来发展机遇。借鉴国外创新药研发经验,探讨我国创新药的 3 种研发模式及估值方法, 解析创新药研发的机遇与风险。     

Valuation of Nature in Conservation and Restoration

Valuation of nature is an important aspect of nature conservation and restoration. Understanding valuation in a broad sense may contribute to conservation strategies since it may lead to better support from society. In this article we propose a model of valuation with respect to conservation and restoration of nature. According to the model, valuation of nature can be characterized by a “valuation approach,” consisting of ecological, ethical and aesthetic perspectives. Such an approach includes scientific and normative aspects and leads to a particular claim of conservation. In this paper we discuss different perspectives, and accordingly, we sketch three main types of these valuation approaches. Political and policy issues with respect to nature conservation and restoration are considered in terms of this model.     

急性运动对伴随负变化的影响

目的和方法：观察１２名男性大学生急性运动后伴随负变化（ＣＮＶ）的改变。结果：运动后１５ｍｉｎ时期待波的峰幅度及面积明显降低，４５ｍｉｎ时有所恢复；ＣＮＶ的运动反应－ＰＩＮＶ的峰幅度及面积亦明显降低，运动后４５ｍｉｎ时仍明显低于运动前。结论：运动后大脑皮质出现了一过性的抑制，大脑觉醒状态、稳定性及注意、警觉的程度降低；同时皮质运动中枢也受到抑制，并且这种抑制恢复较慢。这些改变可能是机体疲劳的标志。     

Valuing environmental functions in developing countries

The interface between ecology and economics is the valuation of environmental goods, services and attributes. The total economic value of an ecosystem is derived by estimating monetary values for it's direct use, indirect use, option and non-use values. Recent advances have been made in the economic valuation of direct, option and non-use values. Much less attention has been paid to measuring the indirect use value provided by environmental functions. These values may be particularly significant in developing countries. This paper details the challenge presented by valuing environmental functions to ecologists and economists and synthesizes the methodological advances that have occurred. Using tropical forests, wetlands and biodiversity as illustrations, the application of this methodology to valuing the functions of complex natural systems is investigated and existing studies reviewed. Conclusions on further research are presented.