The mechanistic basis for higher‐order interactions and non‐additivity in competitive communities

Motivated by both analytical tractability and empirical practicality, community ecologists have long treated the species pair as the fundamental unit of study. This notwithstanding, the challenge of understanding more complex systems has repeatedly generated interest in the role of so‐called higher‐order interactions (HOIs) imposed by species beyond the focal pair. Here we argue that HOIs – defined as non‐additive effects of density on per capita growth – are best interpreted as emergent properties of phenomenological models (e.g. Lotka–Volterra competition) rather than as distinct ‘ecological processes’ in their own right. Using simulations of consumer‐resource models, we explore the mechanisms and system properties that give rise to HOIs in observational data. We demonstrate that HOIs emerge under all but the most restrictive of assumptions, and that incorporating non‐additivity into phenomenological models improves the quantitative and qualitative accuracy of model predictions. Notably, we also observe that HOIs derive primarily from mechanisms and system properties that apply equally to single‐species or pairwise systems as they do to more diverse communities. Consequently, there exists a strong mandate for further recognition of non‐additive effects in both theoretical and empirical research.     

MALDI–MS Profiling to Address Honey Bee Health Status under Bacterial Challenge through Computational Modeling

Honey bees play a critical role in the maintenance of plant biodiversity and sustainability of food webs. In the past few decades, bees have been subjected to biotic and abiotic threats causing various colony disorders. Therefore, monitoring solutions to help beekeepers to improve bee health are necessary. Matrix‐assisted laser desorption ionization–mass spectrometry (MALDI–MS) profiling has emerged within this decade as a powerful tool to identify in routine micro‐organisms and is currently used in real‐time clinical diagnosis. MALDI BeeTyping is developed to monitor significant hemolymph molecular changes in honey bees upon infection with a series of entomopathogenic Gram‐positive and ‐negative bacteria. A Serratia marcescens strain isolated from one naturally infected honey bee collected from the field is also considered. A series of hemolymph molecular mass fingerprints is individually recorded and to the authors' knowledge, the first computational model harboring a predictive score of 97.92% and made of nine molecular signatures that discriminate and classify the honey bees’ systemic response to the bacteria is built. Hence, the model is challenged by classifying a training set of hemolymphs and an overall recognition of 91.93% is obtained. Through this work, a novel, time and cost saving high‐throughput strategy that addresses honey bee health on an individual scale is introduced.     

Tertiary motifs as building blocks for the design of protein‐binding peptides

Despite advances in protein engineering, the de novo design of small proteins or peptides that bind to a desired target remains a difficult task. Most computational methods search for binder structures in a library of candidate scaffolds, which can lead to designs with poor target complementarity and low success rates. Instead of choosing from pre‐defined scaffolds, we propose that custom peptide structures can be constructed to complement a target surface. Our method mines tertiary motifs (TERMs) from known structures to identify surface‐complementing fragments or “seeds.” We combine seeds that satisfy geometric overlap criteria to generate peptide backbones and score the backbones to identify the most likely binding structures. We found that TERM‐based seeds can describe known binding structures with high resolution: the vast majority of peptide binders from 486 peptide‐protein complexes can be covered by seeds generated from single‐chain structures. Furthermore, we demonstrate that known peptide structures can be reconstructed with high accuracy from peptide‐covering seeds. As a proof of concept, we used our method to design 100 peptide binders of TRAF6, seven of which were predicted by Rosetta to form higher‐quality interfaces than a native binder. The designed peptides interact with distinct sites on TRAF6, including the native peptide‐binding site. These results demonstrate that known peptide‐binding structures can be constructed from TERMs in single‐chain structures and suggest that TERM information can be applied to efficiently design novel target‐complementing binders.     

Rainfall manipulation experiments as simulated by terrestrial biosphere models: Where do we stand?

Changes in rainfall amounts and patterns have been observed and are expected to continue in the near future with potentially significant ecological and societal consequences. Modelling vegetation responses to changes in rainfall is thus crucial to project water and carbon cycles in the future. In this study, we present the results of a new model‐data intercomparison project, where we tested the ability of 10 terrestrial biosphere models to reproduce the observed sensitivity of ecosystem productivity to rainfall changes at 10 sites across the globe, in nine of which, rainfall exclusion and/or irrigation experiments had been performed. The key results are as follows: (a) Inter‐model variation is generally large and model agreement varies with timescales. In severely water‐limited sites, models only agree on the interannual variability of evapotranspiration and to a smaller extent on gross primary productivity. In more mesic sites, model agreement for both water and carbon fluxes is typically higher on fine (daily–monthly) timescales and reduces on longer (seasonal–annual) scales. (b) Models on average overestimate the relationship between ecosystem productivity and mean rainfall amounts across sites (in space) and have a low capacity in reproducing the temporal (interannual) sensitivity of vegetation productivity to annual rainfall at a given site, even though observation uncertainty is comparable to inter‐model variability. (c) Most models reproduced the sign of the observed patterns in productivity changes in rainfall manipulation experiments but had a low capacity in reproducing the observed magnitude of productivity changes. Models better reproduced the observed productivity responses due to rainfall exclusion than addition. (d) All models attribute ecosystem productivity changes to the intensity of vegetation stress and peak leaf area, whereas the impact of the change in growing season length is negligible. The relative contribution of the peak leaf area and vegetation stress intensity was highly variable among models.     

Logistic regression when covariates are random effects from a non‐linear mixed model

In many studies, the association of longitudinal measurements of a continuous response and a binary outcome are often of interest. A convenient framework for this type of problems is the joint model, which is formulated to investigate the association between a binary outcome and features of longitudinal measurements through a common set of latent random effects. The joint model, which is the focus of this article, is a logistic regression model with covariates defined as the individual‐specific random effects in a non‐linear mixed‐effects model (NLMEM) for the longitudinal measurements. We discuss different estimation procedures, which include two‐stage, best linear unbiased predictors, and various numerical integration techniques. The proposed methods are illustrated using a real data set where the objective is to study the association between longitudinal hormone levels and the pregnancy outcome in a group of young women. The numerical performance of the estimating methods is also evaluated by means of simulation.     

A New Method for Estimating Growth Transition Matrices

Summary The vast majority of population models work using age or stage not length but there are many cases where animals cannot be aged sensibly or accurately. For these cases length‐based models form the logical alternative but there has been little work done to develop and compare different methods of estimating growth transition matrices to be used in such models. This article demonstrates how a consistent Bayesian framework for estimating growth parameters and a novel method for constructing length transition matrices accounts for variation in growth in a clear and consistent manner and avoids potential subjective choices required using more established methods. The inclusion of the resultant growth uncertainty in population assessment models and the potential impact on management decisions is also addressed.     

DIRECTIONAL CULTURAL CHANGE BY MODIFICATION AND REPLACEMENT OF MEMES

Evolutionary approaches to culture remain contentious. A source of contention is that cultural mutation may be substantial and, if it drives cultural change, then current evolutionary models are not adequate. But we lack studies quantifying the contribution of mutations to directional cultural change. We estimated the contribution of one type of cultural mutations—modification of memes—to directional cultural change using an amenable study system: learned birdsongs in a species that recently entered an urban habitat. Many songbirds have higher minimum song frequency in cities, to alleviate masking by low‐frequency noise. We estimated that the input of meme modifications in an urban songbird population explains about half the extent of the population divergence in song frequency. This contribution of cultural mutations is large, but insufficient to explain the entire population divergence. The remaining divergence is due to selection of memes or creation of new memes. We conclude that the input of cultural mutations can be quantitatively important, unlike in genetic evolution, and that it operates together with other mechanisms of cultural evolution. For this and other traits, in which the input of cultural mutations might be important, quantitative studies of cultural mutation are necessary to calibrate realistic models of cultural evolution.