Temporal change in the genetic structure between and within cohorts of a marine fish,Diplodus sargus,induced by a large variance in individual reproductive success

Temporal changes at 16 allozyme loci in the Diplodus sargus population of Banyuls-sur-Mer (Mediterranean Sea, France) were monitored. Temporal genetic variation within a single population was examined over two temporal scales: (i) among three year-classes sampled at the same age, and (ii) within a single year-class sampled three times over a two-year period. We observed a significant change in the genotypic structure within the same cohort during the first two years following settlement and before recruitment into the adult population. In addition, comparison of year-classes showed that cohorts differed significantly one year after settlement, whereas they became similar later on before recruitment into the adult population. The observed changes in the genetic structure within and between year-classes may be the result of complex selective processes or genetic drift. Linkage disequilibrium and genetic relatedness data suggest that these changes are due to large variation in reproductive success, followed by homogenization through adult movement. Overall, these results demonstrated a rapid genetic change within a population.     

Canopy and age structures of some old sub-boreal Picea stands in British Columbia

Abstract. 14 old, unlogged, Picea-dominated stands in the moist cool Sub-Boreal Spruce biogeoclimatic subzone of central British Columbia, Canada, were sampled to describe canopy heterogeneity, regeneration patterns and tree population age structures. These stands are composed of Picea engelmannii × glauca hybrids, Abies lasiocarpa and lesser amounts of Pinus contorta and Populus tremuloides, and had survived 124–343 yr since the last stand-destroying wildfire. Canopy cover was patchy and highly variable (ranging from 30.5 % to 86.4 %) but was not significantly related to stand age. Vertical canopy structure was less variable, reflecting the shade-tolerance and live crown ratios (length of live canopy expressed relative to tree height) of component species: 18.8 % for Populus, 20.2 % for Pinus, 46.7 % for Picea and 51.4 % for Abies. Individual stands varied considerably in their population structures and in their stand development trajectories, yet some patterns are evident. Survivors of the initial post-disturbance cohort of trees took 51 to 118 yr (mean = 80, s.d. = 20) to establish. Some stands had all tree species present during stand initiation, while other stands indicated early successional roles for Populus and Pinus, or a late successional role for Abies. Abies recruitment, while often slow in the beginning, occurs uniformly throughout the history of most stands, reflecting the high shade-tolerance of this species. Picea is often recruited in high densities early in stand development, and then (after long periods of exclusion) may be displaced by Abies in some stands but maintains itself in others. Minor, single-tree disturbances (due to bark beetles, root rot, and windthrow) were important in accelerating the reinitiation of Picea in the understory. Results thus suggest that stands from this region can be self-perpetuating in the absence of fire. Yet, post-fire tree populations still clearly dominate these spruce-fir forests, for only the oldest stand had greater basal area in the replacement cohort than in the initial cohort.     

Design and Analysis of Multiple Events Case–Control Studies

Summary In case–control research where there are multiple case groups, standard analyses fail to make use of all available information. Multiple events case–control (MECC) studies provide a new approach to sampling from a cohort and are useful when it is desired to study multiple types of events in the cohort. In this design, subjects in the cohort who develop any event of interest are sampled, as well as a fraction of the remaining subjects. We show that a simple case–control analysis of data arising from MECC studies is biased and develop three general estimating‐equation‐based approaches to analyzing data from these studies. We conduct simulation studies to compare the efficiency of the various MECC analyses with each other and with the corresponding conventional analyses. It is shown that the gain in efficiency by using the new design is substantial in many situations. We demonstrate the application of our approach to a nested case–control study of the effect of oral sodium phosphate use on chronic kidney injury with multiple case definitions.     

Identifying subgroups of age and cohort effects in obesity prevalence

The obesity epidemic represents an important public health issue in the United States. Studying obesity trends across age groups over time helps to identify crucial relationships between the disease and medical treatment allowing for the development of effective prevention policies. We aim to define subgroups of age and cohort effects in obesity prevalence over time by considering an optimization approach applied to the age‐period‐cohort (APC) model. We consider a heterogeneous regression problem where the regression coefficients are age dependent and belong to subgroups with unknown grouping information. Using the APC model, we apply the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) algorithm to develop a two‐step algorithm for (1) subgrouping of cohort effects based on similar characteristics and (2) subgrouping age effects over time. The proposed clustering approach is illustrated for the United States population, aged 18–79, during the period 1990–2017.     

The association between chronotype and wages at mid-age

Sleep has been shown to affect economic outcomes, including wages. The mechanisms by which sleep affects wages remain unclear. We examine the relationship between chronotype – morning larks, evening owls – and wages at mid-age. We propose a novel model relating chronotype to wages in consideration of human, social, and health capital constructs. Empirically, we explore the effects of chronotype mediated through life course choices, such as work experience, trust, and health behaviour. The data come from the 46-year-old follow-up study of the Northern Finland Birth Cohort (1966) and from registers of the Finnish Tax Administration. We find evening chronotype to have a significant indirect negative effect on wages, which occurs through accumulating less work experience and through poor health outcomes. The effect is largest for male workers, with a total indirect effect on average wages of − 4%. We also provide evidence that chronotype has a long-term association with wages between 29 and 50 years of age. We conclude that evening-type workers are less suited to typical working hours and accumulate less human, social and health capital which in turn negatively affects their wages. Our findings are of great socio-economic importance because evening chronotypes make up a significant part of the population.     

A simulation approach for power calculation in large cohort studies based on multistate models

Realistic power calculations for large cohort studies and nested case control studies are essential for successfully answering important and complex research questions in epidemiology and clinical medicine. For this, we provide a methodical framework for general realistic power calculations via simulations that we put into practice by means of an R‐based template. We consider staggered recruitment and individual hazard rates, competing risks, interaction effects, and the misclassification of covariates. The study cohort is assembled with respect to given age‐, gender‐, and community distributions. Nested case‐control analyses with a varying number of controls enable comparisons of power with a full cohort analysis. Time‐to‐event generation under competing risks, including delayed study‐entry times, is realized on the basis of a six‐state Markov model. Incidence rates, prevalence of risk factors and prefixed hazard ratios allow for the assignment of age‐dependent transition rates given in the form of Cox models. These provide the basis for a central simulation‐algorithm, which is used for the generation of sample paths of the underlying time‐inhomogeneous Markov processes. With the inclusion of frailty terms into the Cox models the Markov property is specifically biased. An “individual Markov process given frailty” creates some unobserved heterogeneity between individuals. Different left‐truncation‐ and right‐censoring patterns call for the use of Cox models for data analysis. p‐values are recorded over repeated simulation runs to allow for the desired power calculations. For illustration, we consider scenarios with a “testing” character as well as realistic scenarios. This enables the validation of a correct implementation of theoretical concepts and concrete sample size recommendations against an actual epidemiological background, here given with possible substudy designs within the German National Cohort.     

Age structure changes and extraordinary lifespan in wild medfly populations

The main purpose of this study was to test the hypotheses that major changes in age structure occur in wild populations of the Mediterranean fruit fly (medfly) and that a substantial fraction of individuals survive to middle age and beyond (> 3-4 weeks). We thus brought reference life tables and deconvolution models to bear on medfly mortality data gathered from a 3-year study of field-captured individuals that were monitored in the laboratory. The average time-to-death of captured females differed between sampling dates by 23.9, 22.7, and 37.0 days in the 2003, 2004, and 2005 field seasons, respectively. These shifts in average times-to-death provided evidence of changes in population age structure. Estimates indicated that middle-aged medflies (> 30 days) were common in the population. A surprise in the study was the extraordinary longevity observed in field-captured medflies. For example, 19 captured females but no reference females survived in the laboratory for 140 days or more, and 6 captured but no reference males survived in the laboratory for 170 days or more. This paper advances the study of aging in the wild by introducing a new method for estimating age structure in insect populations, demonstrating that major changes in age structure occur in field populations of insects, showing that middle-aged individuals are common in the wild, and revealing the extraordinary lifespans of wild-caught individuals due to their early life experience in the field.     

Negative and Non-Positive Epidemiological Studies

Aim. To identify and discuss validity aspects on so called negative and non-positive studies. Methods. Arguments and examples are drawn from experiences in occupational health epidemiology regarding the interpretation of more or less equivocal study results. Results and conclusions. A negative study may be defined as showing a result that goes against the investigated hypothesis of an increased (or prevented) risk. Traditionally, studies with a risk estimate (relative risk or odds ratio) above but close to unity are also referred to as negative, given a narrow confidence interval (CI) that includes unity. A risk estimate above unity with the CI including unity is non-positive, however, but an estimate below unity with upper CI bond exceeding unity might be seen as possibly negative or non-negative. A weaker “significance” than usually required should perhaps be accepted when evaluating serious hazards. In contrast to positive studies, the negative and non-positive studies tend to escape criticism in spite of questionable validity that may have obscured existing risks (or preventive effects). Even stronger arguments can be made in criticising negative and non-positive studies than positive studies, for example, regarding selection phenomena, and observational problems regarding exposure and outcome. Negative confounding should be considered although usually weak. In case-control studies, so-called over-matching may obscure an existing risk as could the “healthy worker effect” in cohort studies. Small scale non-positive studies should be made available for meta-analyses and when considering studies that do not convincingly show a risk; those who are exposed should be given the “benefit of the doubt.”