Occupancy versus colonization–extinction models for projecting population trends at different spatial scales

Understanding spatiotemporal population trends and their drivers is a key aim in population ecology. We further need to be able to predict how the dynamics and sizes of populations are affected in the long term by changing landscapes and climate. However, predictions of future population trends are sensitive to a range of modeling assumptions. Deadwood‐dependent fungi are an excellent system for testing the performance of different predictive models of sessile species as these species have different rarity and spatial population dynamics, the populations are structured at different spatial scales, and they utilize distinct substrates. We tested how the projected large‐scale occupancies of species with differing landscape‐scale occupancies are affected over the coming century by different modeling assumptions. We compared projections based on occupancy models against colonization–extinction models, conducting the modeling at alternative spatial scales and using fine‐ or coarse‐resolution deadwood data. We also tested effects of key explanatory variables on species occurrence and colonization–extinction dynamics. The hierarchical Bayesian models applied were fitted to an extensive repeated survey of deadwood and fungi at 174 patches. We projected higher occurrence probabilities and more positive trends using the occupancy models compared to the colonization–extinction models, with greater difference for the species with lower occupancy, colonization rate, and colonization:extinction ratio than for the species with higher estimates of these statistics. The magnitude of future increase in occupancy depended strongly on the spatial modeling scale and resource resolution. We encourage using colonization–extinction models over occupancy models, modeling the process at the finest resource‐unit resolution that is utilizable by the species, and conducting projections for the same spatial scale and resource resolution at which the model fitting is conducted. Further, the models applied should include key variables driving the metapopulation dynamics, such as the availability of suitable resource units, habitat quality, and spatial connectivity.     

Metapopulation dynamics and foraging plasticity in a highly vagile seabird,the southern rockhopper penguin

Population connectivity is driven by individual dispersal potential and modulated by natal philopatry. In seabirds, high vagility facilitates dispersal yet philopatry is also common, with foraging area overlap often correlated with population connectivity. We assess the interplay between these processes by studying past and current connectivity and foraging niche overlap among southern rockhopper penguin colonies of the coast of southern South America using genomic and stable isotope analyses. We found two distinct genetic clusters and detected low admixture between northern and southern colonies. Stable isotope analysis indicated niche variability between colonies, with Malvinas/Falklands colonies encompassing the species entire isotopic foraging niche, while the remaining colonies had smaller, nonoverlapping niches. A recently founded colony in continental Patagonia differed in isotopic niche width and position with Malvinas/Falklands colonies, its genetically identified founder population, suggesting the exploitation of novel foraging areas and/or prey items. Additionally, dispersing individuals found dead across the Patagonian shore in an unusual mortality event were also assigned to the northern cluster, suggesting northern individuals reach southern localities, but do not breed in these colonies. Facilitated by variability in foraging strategies, and especially during unfavorable conditions, the number of dispersing individuals may increase and enhance the probability of founding new colonies. Metapopulation demographic dynamics in seabirds should account for interannual variability in dispersal behavior and pay special attention to extreme climatic events, classically related to negative effects on population trends.     

Three critical factors affecting automated image species recognition performance for camera traps

Ecological camera traps are increasingly used by wildlife biologists to unobtrusively monitor an ecosystems animal population. However, manual inspection of the images produced is expensive, laborious, and time‐consuming. The success of deep learning systems using camera trap images has been previously explored in preliminary stages. These studies, however, are lacking in their practicality. They are primarily focused on extremely large datasets, often millions of images, and there is little to no focus on performance when tasked with species identification in new locations not seen during training. Our goal was to test the capabilities of deep learning systems trained on camera trap images using modestly sized training data, compare performance when considering unseen background locations, and quantify the gradient of lower bound performance to provide a guideline of data requirements in correspondence to performance expectations. We use a dataset provided by Parks Canada containing 47,279 images collected from 36 unique geographic locations across multiple environments. Images represent 55 animal species and human activity with high‐class imbalance. We trained, tested, and compared the capabilities of six deep learning computer vision networks using transfer learning and image augmentation: DenseNet201, Inception‐ResNet‐V3, InceptionV3, NASNetMobile, MobileNetV2, and Xception. We compare overall performance on “trained” locations where DenseNet201 performed best with 95.6% top‐1 accuracy showing promise for deep learning methods for smaller scale research efforts. Using trained locations, classifications with <500 images had low and highly variable recall of 0.750 ± 0.329, while classifications with over 1,000 images had a high and stable recall of 0.971 ± 0.0137. Models tasked with classifying species from untrained locations were less accurate, with DenseNet201 performing best with 68.7% top‐1 accuracy. Finally, we provide an open repository where ecologists can insert their image data to train and test custom species detection models for their desired ecological domain.     

Exploring context dependency in eco‐evolutionary patterns with the stick insect Timema cristinae

Rapid evolution can influence the ecology of populations, communities, and ecosystems, but the importance of evolution for ecological dynamics remains unclear, largely because the contexts in which evolution is powerful are poorly resolved. Here, we carry out a large observational study to test hypotheses about context dependency of eco‐evolutionary patterns previously identified on the stick insect Timema cristinae. Experiments and observations conducted in 2011 and 2012 documented predator‐mediated negative effects of camouflage maladaptation (i.e., evolutionary dynamics) on: (a) T. cristinae abundance and, (b) species richness and abundance of other arthropods. Here we show that camouflage maladaptation does not correlate with T. cristinae abundance and, instead, is associated with increased abundance and species richness of cohabitating arthropods. We furthermore find that plants with high levels of Timema maladaptation tend to have higher foliar nitrogen, that is, higher nutritional value, and more positive mass‐abundance slopes in the coexisting arthropod communities. We propose explanations for the observed contrasting results, such as negative density‐ and frequency‐dependent selection, feedbacks between herbivore abundance and plant nutritional quality, and common effects of predation pressure on selection and prey abundance. Our results demonstrate the utility of observational studies to assess the context dependency of eco‐evolutionary dynamics patterns and provide testable hypotheses for future work.     

Travel with your kin ship! Insights from genetic sibship among settlers of a coral damselfish

Coral reef fish larvae are tiny, exceedingly numerous, and hard to track. They are also highly capable, equipped with swimming and sensory abilities that may influence their dispersal trajectories. Despite the importance of larval input to the dynamics of a population, we remain reliant on indirect insights to the processes influencing larval behavior and transport. Here, we used genetic data (300 independent single nucleotide polymorphisms) derived from a light trap sample of a single recruitment event of Dascyllus abudafur in the Red Sea (N = 168 settlers). We analyzed the genetic composition of the larvae and assessed whether kinship among these was significantly different from random as evidence for cohesive dispersal during the larval phase. We used Monte Carlo simulations of similar‐sized recruitment cohorts to compare the expected kinship composition relative to our empirical data. The high number of siblings within the empirical cohort strongly suggests cohesive dispersal among larvae. This work highlights the utility of kinship analysis as a means of inferring dynamics during the pelagic larval phase.     

Drought conditions alter litter decomposition and nutrient release of litter types in an agroforestry system of China

Evaluating how decomposition rates and litter nutrient release of different litter types respond to changes in water conditions is crucial for understanding global carbon and nutrient cycling. However, it is unclear how decreasing water affects litter mixture interactions for the maize–poplar system in arid regions. Here, the responses of the litter decomposition process and litter mixture interactions in the agroforestry system to changes in water conditions (control, light drought, and moderate drought) were tested. Moderate drought significantly decreased the decomposition rate for poplar leaf and mixed litters, and decomposition rate was significantly reduced for maize straw litter in light and moderate drought stress. The mass loss rates of maize straw and mixed litters were significantly higher than that of the poplar leaf litter under drought conditions, but there was no significant difference among the three litter types in the control. There was no interaction between mass loss of the mixed litter in the control and light drought conditions, and the litter mixture interaction showed nonadditive synergistic interactions under moderate drought. In terms of nutrient release, there was also no interaction between litter mixture with nitrogen and carbon, but there was antagonistic interaction with potassium release under the light drought condition. Our results demonstrate that drought conditions can lead to decreasing decomposition rate and strong changes in the litter mixture interactions from additive effects to nonadditive synergistic effects in moderate drought. Moreover, light drought changed the mixture interaction from an additive effect to an antagonistic interaction for potassium release.     

Where’s wallaby? Using public records and media reports to describe the status of red‐necked wallabies in Britain

Investigating the range and population dynamics of introduced species provides insight into species behavior, habitat preferences, and potential of becoming established. Here, we show the current population status of the red‐necked wallaby (Notamacropus rufogriseus) in Britain based on records from an eleven‐year period (2008–2018). Records were obtained from Local Environmental Records Centres (LERCs), the National Biodiversity Network (NBN), and popular media. All records were mapped and compared to a historical distribution map (1940–2007), derived from published data. A total of 95 confirmed wallaby sightings were recorded between 2008 and 2018, of which 64 came from media sources, 18 from Local Environmental Records Centres (LERCs), seven from the National Biodiversity Network (NBN), and six from the published literature (Yalden, Br. Wildl., 24, 2013, 169). The greatest density of wallaby sightings was in southern England, with the Chiltern Hills Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty a particular hot spot (n = 11). More sightings were recorded in August than in any other month. Much of the species’ ecology and responses to British biota and anthropogenic pressures are unknown, and therefore, further research is warranted. The methods used here are widely applicable to other non‐native species, particularly those that the public are more likely to report and could be an important supplement to existing studies of conservation and management relevance.     

PGAM5: A crucial role in mitochondrial dynamics and programmed cell death

In response to mitochondrial damage, mitochondria activate mitochondrial dynamics to maintain normal functions, and an imbalance in mitochondrial dynamics triggers multiple programmed cell death processes. Recent studies have shown that phosphoglycerate mutase 5 (PGAM5) is associated with mitochondrial damage. PGAM5 activates mitochondrial biogenesis and mitophagy to promote a cellular compensatory response when mitochondria are mildly damaged, whereas severe damage to mitochondria leads to PGAM5 inducing excessive mitochondria fission, disruption to mitochondrial movement, and amplification of apoptosis, necroptosis and mitophagic death signals, which eventually evoke cell death. PGAM5 functions mainly through protein-protein interactions and specific Ser/Thr/His protein phosphatase activity. PGAM5 is also regulated by mitochondrial proteases. Detection of PGAM5 and its interacting protein partners should enable a more accurate evaluation of mitochondrial damage and a more precise method for the diagnosis and treatment of diseases.     

Membrane dynamics of γ‐secretase with the anterior pharynx‐defective 1B subunit

The four‐subunit protease complex γ‐secretase cleaves many single‐pass transmembrane (TM) substrates, including Notch and β‐amyloid precursor protein to generate amyloid‐β (Aβ), central to Alzheimer's disease. Two of the subunits anterior pharynx‐defective 1 (APH‐1) and presenilin (PS) exist in two homologous forms APH1‐A and APH1‐B, and PS1 and PS2. The consequences of these variations are poorly understood and could affect Aβ production and γ‐secretase medicine. Here, we developed the first complete structural model of the APH‐1B subunit using the published cryo‐electron microscopy (cryo‐EM) structures of APH1‐A (Protein Data Bank: 5FN2, 5A63, and 6IYC). We then performed all‐atom molecular dynamics simulations at 303 K in a realistic bilayer system to understand both APH‐1B alone and in γ‐secretase without and with substrate C83‐bound. We show that APH‐1B adopts a 7TM topology with a water channel topology similar to APH‐1A. We demonstrate direct transport of water through this channel, mainly via Glu84, Arg87, His170, and His196. The apo and holo states closely resemble the experimental cryo‐EM structures with APH‐1A, however with subtle differences: The substrate‐bound APH‐1B γ‐secretase was quite stable, but some TM helices of PS1 and APH‐1B rearranged in the membrane consistent with the disorder seen in the cryo‐EM data. This produces different accessibility of water molecules for the catalytic aspartates of PS1, critical for Aβ production. In particular, we find that the typical distance between the catalytic aspartates of PS1 and the C83 cleavage sites are shorter in APH‐1B, that is, it represents a more closed state, due to interactions with the C‐terminal fragment of PS1. Our structural‐dynamic model of APH‐1B alone and in γ‐secretase suggests generally similar topology but some notable differences in water accessibility which may be relevant to the protein's existence in two forms and their specific function and location.