Multi‐model comparison highlights consistency in predicted effect of warming on a semi‐arid shrub

A number of modeling approaches have been developed to predict the impacts of climate change on species distributions, performance, and abundance. The stronger the agreement from models that represent different processes and are based on distinct and independent sources of information, the greater the confidence we can have in their predictions. Evaluating the level of confidence is particularly important when predictions are used to guide conservation or restoration decisions. We used a multi‐model approach to predict climate change impacts on big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), the dominant plant species on roughly 43 million hectares in the western United States and a key resource for many endemic wildlife species. To evaluate the climate sensitivity of A. tridentata, we developed four predictive models, two based on empirically derived spatial and temporal relationships, and two that applied mechanistic approaches to simulate sagebrush recruitment and growth. This approach enabled us to produce an aggregate index of climate change vulnerability and uncertainty based on the level of agreement between models. Despite large differences in model structure, predictions of sagebrush response to climate change were largely consistent. Performance, as measured by change in cover, growth, or recruitment, was predicted to decrease at the warmest sites, but increase throughout the cooler portions of sagebrush's range. A sensitivity analysis indicated that sagebrush performance responds more strongly to changes in temperature than precipitation. Most of the uncertainty in model predictions reflected variation among the ecological models, raising questions about the reliability of forecasts based on a single modeling approach. Our results highlight the value of a multi‐model approach in forecasting climate change impacts and uncertainties and should help land managers to maximize the value of conservation investments.     

Knockout of 5‐lipoxygenase prevents dexamethasone‐induced tau pathology in 3xTg mice

Emerging evidence suggests that dysregulation stress hormones, such as glucocorticoids, in aged persons put them at a higher risk to develop Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, the mechanisms underlying such vulnerability remain to be unraveled. Pharmacologic inhibition of 5‐lipoxygenase (5LO), an active player in AD pathogenesis whose protein level increases with aging in the human, has been shown to blunt glucocorticoid‐mediated amyloid β (Ab) formation in vitro. In this article, we investigated the role of this pathway in modulating the development of the corticosteroid‐dependent AD‐like phenotype in the triple transgenic mice (3xTg). Dexamethasone was administered for 1 week to 3xTg or 3xTg genetically deficient for 5LO (3xTg/5LO^?/?) mice, and its effect on memory, amyloid‐β and tau levels, and metabolism assessed. At the end of the treatment, we observed that dexamethasone did not induce changes in behavior. Compared with controls, treated mice did not show significant alterations in brain soluble Aβ levels. While total tau protein levels were unmodified in all groups, we found that dexamethasone significantly increased tau phosphorylation at S396, as recognized by the antibody PHF‐13, which was specifically associated with an increase in the GSK3β activity. Additionally, dexamethasone‐treated mice had a significant increase in the tau insoluble fraction and reduction in the postsynaptic protein PDS‐95. By contrast, these modifications were blunted in the 3xTg/5LO^?/? mice. Our findings highlight the functional role that 5LO plays in stress‐induced AD tau pathology and support the hypothesis that pharmacologic inhibition of this enzyme could be a useful tool for individuals with this risk factor.     

Finite elements/Taguchi method based procedure for the identification of the geometrical parameters significantly affecting the biomechanical behavior of a lumbar disc

The aim of this work is to show a quick and simple procedure able to identify the geometrical parameters of the intervertebral disc that strongly affect the behavior of the FEM model. First, we allocated a selection criterion for the minimum number of geometrical parameters that describe, with a good degree of approximation, a healthy human vertebra. Next, we carried out a sensitivity analysis using the ‘Taguchi orthogonal array’ to arrive at a quick identification of the parameters that strongly affect the behavior of the Fem model.     

MolMod – an open access database of force fields for molecular simulations of fluids

The MolMod database is presented, which is openly accessible at http://molmod.boltzmann-zuse.de and contains intermolecular force fields for over 150 pure fluids at present. It was developed and is maintained by the Boltzmann-Zuse Society for Computational Molecular Engineering (BZS). The set of molecular models in the MolMod database provides a coherent framework for molecular simulations of fluids. The molecular models in the MolMod database consist of Lennard-Jones interaction sites, point charges, and point dipoles and quadrupoles, which can be equivalently represented by multiple point charges. The force fields can be exported as input files for the simulation programmes ms2 and ls1 mardyn, GROMACS, and LAMMPS. To characterise the semantics associated with the numerical database content, a force field nomenclature is introduced that can also be used in other contexts in materials modelling at the atomistic and mesoscopic levels. The models of the pure substances that are included in the database were generally optimised such as to yield good representations of experimental data of the vapour–liquid equilibrium with a focus on the vapour pressure and the saturated liquid density. In many cases, the models also yield good predictions of caloric, transport, and interfacial properties of the pure fluids. For all models, references to the original works in which they were developed are provided. The models can be used straightforwardly for predictions of properties of fluid mixtures using established combination rules. Input errors are a major source of errors in simulations. The MolMod database contributes to reducing such errors.     

Geographic range determinants of two commercially important marine molluscs

Aim We modelled the spatial abundance patterns of two abalone species (Haliotis rubra Donovan 1808 and H. laevigata Leach 1814) inhabiting inshore rocky reefs to better understand the importance of current sea surface temperature (SST) (among other predictors) and, ultimately, the effect of future climate change, on marine molluscs. Location Southern Australia. Methods We used an ensemble species distribution modelling approach that combined likelihood‐based generalized linear models and boosted regression trees. For each modelling technique, a two‐step procedure was used to predict: (1) the current probability of presence, followed by (2) current abundance conditional on presence. The resulting models were validated using an independent, spatially explicit dataset of abalone abundance patterns in Victoria. Results For both species, the presence of reef was the main driver of abalone occurrence, while SST was the main driver of spatial abundance patterns. Predictive maps at c. 1‐km resolution showed maximal abundance on shallow coastal reefs characterized by mild winter SSTs for both species. Main conclusions Sea surface temperature was a major driver of abundance patterns for both abalone species, and the resulting ensemble models were used to build fine‐resolution predictive range maps (c. 1 km) that incorporate measures of habitat suitability and quality in support of resource management. By integrating this output with structured spatial population models, a more robust understanding of the potential impacts of threatening human processes such as climate change can be established.     

人体和动物模型的体表物理信息地形图的研究

对人体头面、躯干、四肢、耳廓各局部几十个及整个人体等体表部位正、背面等210个部位进行超微弱冷光和温度测量,输入电子计算机,经特殊的自编程序处理,获得十分清晰的,由3000多数据构成的各个局部或人体整体的冷光和温度地形图。 对家兔左、右耳廓、胸腹部、背部都分别观察32个部位的冷光与体表温度,经计算机分析处理,每观察区域获得约由2000个数据构成的精确的冷光、温度地形分市图。并可见不同生理、病理状态及不同病程家兔体表冷光、温度等地形图呈有规律的改变。 此外,我们还编制了以体表左右相应对称部位差值为分析数据进行地形图分析的程序,用以人体和动物体表物理信息对称规律的研究。 本工作以图形的形式显示物理参量在体表的广泛的分布规律,以揭示机体内部的不同生理、病理状态。本方法定位准确、直观醒目,为研究体表信息及机体生命活动规律提供了与逐点直接测量方法相互补充的有益的新手段。     

Behavioral Phenotyping of Murine Disease Models with the Integrated Behavioral Station (INBEST)

Due to rapid advances in genetic engineering, small rodents have become the preferred subjects in many disciplines of biomedical research. In studies of chronic CNS disorders, there is an increasing demand for murine models with high validity at the behavioral level. However, multiple pathogenic mechanisms and complex functional deficits often impose challenges to reliably measure and interpret behavior of chronically sick mice. Therefore, the assessment of peripheral pathology and a behavioral profile at several time points using a battery of tests are required. Video-tracking, behavioral spectroscopy, and remote acquisition of physiological measures are emerging technologies that allow for comprehensive, accurate, and unbiased behavioral analysis in a home-base-like setting. This report describes a refined phenotyping protocol, which includes a custom-made monitoring apparatus (Integrated Behavioral Station, INBEST) that focuses on prolonged measurements of basic functional outputs, such as spontaneous activity, food/water intake and motivated behavior in a relatively stress-free environment. Technical and conceptual improvements in INBEST design may further promote reproducibility and standardization of behavioral studies.     

Metastatic risk and resistance to BRAF inhibitors in melanoma defined by selective allelic loss of ATG5

Melanoma is a paradigm of aggressive tumors with a complex and heterogeneous genetic background. Still, melanoma cells frequently retain developmental traits that trace back to lineage specification programs. In particular, lysosome-associated vesicular trafficking is emerging as a melanoma-enriched lineage dependency. However, the contribution of other lysosomal functions such as autophagy to melanoma progression is unclear, particularly in the context of metastasis and resistance to targeted therapy. Here we mined a broad spectrum of cancers for a meta-analysis of mRNA expression, copy number variation and prognostic value of 13 core autophagy genes. This strategy identified heterozygous loss of ATG5 at chromosome band 6q21 as a distinctive feature of advanced melanomas. Importantly, partial ATG5 loss predicted poor overall patient survival in a manner not shared by other autophagy factors and not recapitulated in other tumor types. This prognostic relevance of ATG5 copy number was not evident for other 6q21 neighboring genes. Melanocyte-specific mouse models confirmed that heterozygous (but not homozygous) deletion of Atg5 enhanced melanoma metastasis and compromised the response to targeted therapy (exemplified by dabrafenib, a BRAF inhibitor in clinical use). Collectively, our results support ATG5 as a therapeutically relevant dose-dependent rheostat of melanoma progression. Moreover, these data have important translational implications in drug design, as partial blockade of autophagy genes may worsen (instead of counteracting) the malignant behavior of metastatic melanomas.