North Sea cod and climate change – modelling the effects of temperature on population dynamics

In order to examine the likely impacts of climate change on fish stocks, it is necessary to couple the output from large‐scale climate models to fisheries population simulations. Using projections of future North Sea surface temperatures for the period 2000–2050 from the Hadley General Circulation Model, we estimate the likely effects of climate change on the North Sea cod population. Output from the model suggests that increasing temperatures will lead to an increased rate of decline in the North Sea cod population compared with simulations that ignore environmental change. Although the simulation developed here is relatively simplistic, we demonstrate that inclusion of environmental factors in population models can markedly alter one's perception of how the population will behave. The development of simulations incorporating environment effects will become increasingly important as the impacts of climate change on the marine ecosystem become more pronounced.     

Stomatal responses to increased CO2: implications from the plant to the global scale

Increased atmospheric CO₂ often but not always leads to large decreases in leaf conductance. Decreased leaf conductance has important implications for a number of components of CO₂ responses, from the plant to the global scale. All of the factors that are sensitive to a change in soil moisture, either amount or timing, may be affected by increased CO₂. The list of potentially sensitive processes includes soil evaporation, run-off, decomposition, and physiological adjustments of plants, as well as factors such as canopy development and the composition of the plant and microbial communities. Experimental evidence concerning ecosystem-scale consequences of the effects of CO₂ on water use is only beginning to accumulate, but the initial indication is that, in water-limited areas, the effects of CO₂-induced changes in leaf conductance are comparable in importance to those of CO,₂-induced changes in photosynthesis. Above the leaf scale, a number of processes interact to modulate the response of canopy or regional evapotran-spiration to increased CO₂. While some components of these processes tend to amplify the sensitivity of evapo-transpiration to altered leaf conductance, the most likely overall pattern is one in which the responses of canopy and regional evapotranspiration are substantially smaller than the responses of canopy conductance. The effects of increased CO₂ on canopy evapotranspiration are likely to be smallest in aerodynamically smooth canopies with high leaf conductances. Under these circumstances, which are largely restricted to agriculture, decreases in evapotranspiration may be only one-fourth as large as decreases in canopy conductance. Decreased canopy conductances over large regions may lead to altered climate, including increased temperature and decreased precipitation. The simulation experiments to date predict small effects globally, but these could be important regionally, especially in combination with radiative (greenhouse) effects of increased CO₂.     

Islands: stability, diversity, conservation

Islands present both a diversity and a stability paradox. They are often highly species-poor but have considerable biological interest in terms of extraordinary endemic genera and taxonomically isolated groups. They appear to be stable, as in some cases these organisms have persisted for many millions of years, and having an oceanic climate, extreme climatic events may be comparatively rare. However, when subject to extrinsic (anthropogenic) disturbance they do not appear to be stable, but often suffer catastrophic ecological change. These apparent paradoxes are resolved when it is realized that all these features are consequences of the same island characteristics: biotic isolation and oceanicity. As a result of these two characteristics, far oceanic islands are quantitatively different from continental systems in the nature of their ecological processes, which appear to give rise to an extreme punctuated equilibrium model of evolutionary change. Endemics may be ancient relict endemics displaying prolonged stasis and persistence, or products of adaptive radiation representing rapid punctuational events. A process-based definition of a relict endemic (palaeoendemic) is one whose founding lineage (i.e. the original continental source taxon) has not left any descendents. A corollary of this definition is that the time of divergence between an endemic and its continental sister-group should predate the colonization of the island by the now endemic lineage. An example is Dicksonia arborescens which has been on St Helena for at least 9 Myrs and no longer occurs in the likely source area of Africa. These relict endemics, frequent on islands, are important as the last remnants of tranches of biodiversity that have vanished elsewhere. Island conservation strategies require an integrated understanding of both sides of the diversity and stability paradox so that both island processes and island organisms can be conserved.     

Distribution,diversity and conservation of Anostraca (Crustacea: Branchiopoda) in southern Africa

Southern Africa is defined here as Africa south of the Zambezi and Kunene Rivers. Here, annual average rainfall, rainfall season, and effective temperature are climatic factors which influence anostracan distribution. The type of temporary pool also appears to have some effect on distribution. Areas of high species richness are not confined to any particular climatic region and such areas occur in arid, montane and subtropical regions of southern Africa. Forty-six anostracan species have been recorded from the subcontinent and 80% of these are endemic. IUCN Red Data assessment of species revealed that two species can be considered 'Critically Endangered', while a further four are 'Endangered', and three are 'Vulnerable'. Many parts of southern Africa have been inadequately sampled but in South Africa, where the anostracans are relatively well known, temporary pool inhabitants are threatened mainly by agriculture, urbanization, pollution and pesticides. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Comparative genet survival after fire in woody Mediterranean species

Summary Using data from three fires in northeastern Spain, we tested a condition necessary to support the idea that fire has been a factor in the evolution of the resprouting habit: populations of all resprouting species within a community should show high levels of genet survival after fires and show a low coefficient of variation. Species with high mean survival values were:Quercus ilex L.,Phillyrea latifolia L., andViburnum tinus L., with 88, 86 and 83% survival respectively; these groups had resprouts emerging from rootcrowns. Then followedArbutus unedo L. (75%),Pistacia lentiscus L. (73%),Erica arborea L. (77%),Erica multiflora L. (57%) andJuniperus oxycedrus L. (55%). This last group had resprouts from lignotubers or burls. These two groups also differed in the variability around the mean: the first showed a lower coefficient of variation, 6–12, and the second ranged from 19 to 26. Slope exposure had no significant influence on the process of resprouting, but soil depth did, with precipitation as a covariate. In the shallow soil category, the difference in genet survival between southern and northern exposures was 14% (71% vs. 57%); while the difference in the deep soil category was low, 5% (87% vs. 82%). There was no significant interaction. The component of variance for soils was larger than that for species-specific effects; substantial overlap of the within-species variance indicated that species responded as if they were a single hypothetical population, in which most of the variation in chances of survival was due to the soil conditions. The possession of the resprouting habit did not ensure a high performance. Hence, we find weak support for fire as a factor in the evolution of the resprouting habit.     

气候变化对黑龙江省水稻障碍型冷害的影响

明确气候变化对黑龙江省水稻孕穗期和抽穗期障碍型冷害的影响,可为水稻安全生产提供科学依据。基于黑龙江省70个台站1971—2012年的气象资料和10个台站1980—2011年水稻生育期数据,结合水稻障碍型冷害指标,分析了气候变化对黑龙江省水稻障碍型冷害的影响。结果表明:(1)水稻孕穗期障碍型冷害1990s发生频率最低,2000s发生频率最高;抽穗期障碍型冷害1970s和1980s发生频率高,1990s和2000s发生频率低。(2)抽穗期障碍型冷害发生程度大于孕穗期障碍型冷害。(3)不同熟型水稻品种可种植北界逐渐北移东扩,极早熟、早熟和中熟品种可种植范围分别缩小了5、21和11个县(市),中晚熟和晚熟品种可种植范围分别扩大了14和23个县(市)。(4)随着水稻种植格局的变化,不同熟型水稻障碍型冷害均在1990s发生频率最低,2000s发生频率最高。     

土地利用/覆盖变化对中国不同季节气温的影响

近几十年中国地区土地利用/覆盖变化(LUCC)较大,在区域气候模拟中尤其需要使用更加准确的土地利用/覆盖数据。基于模式原有的USGS和新开发的LUC90两种土地利用/覆盖资料,利用区域环境集成模拟系统(RIEMS2.0)分别进行连续10a模拟,分析LUCC对中国不同季节气温的影响。结果表明:1)采用LUC90资料后,中国及东北、华北、华南夏季平均气温增加,但只有东北模拟与观测值的偏差减小,且通过显著性检验(P0.01)。中国及东北、华南冬季平均气温增加,并且模拟与观测值的偏差减少。中国及华北和华南对冬季气温年际变率的模拟改善好于夏季。2)土地利用/覆盖变化通过影响潜热通量的变化和净吸收辐射通量的变化来影响不同季节气温的变化。冬季净辐射通量变化对气温变化的贡献较夏季大,而夏季潜热通量变化对气温变化的贡献较冬季大。雨养农田转变森林、草地、灌溉农田过程造成通量变化,其对气温变化的影响也存在不同分区季节的差异。     

气候变化对滇西北碧塔海流域景观演变的影响

气候变化是景观演变的重要驱动力,高海拔地带生态系统对气候变化的响应较为敏感和迅速。选择地处青藏高原东南缘,受人为干扰相对较小的碧塔海流域为研究对象,利用1958—2011年气象资料以及1955、1974、1981、1994、2005和2011年6个年代的景观类型面积,采用气候倾向率估计、Mann-Kendall突变检验方法和Pearson相关系数等统计方法,研究了香格里拉县气候变化背景下碧塔海流域景观演变特征。结果表明:(1)1958—2011年来,滇西北香格里拉县多年平均气温为5.9℃,多年平均活动积温为2146.1℃,多年平均年极端高温为24.3℃,多年平均年极端低温为-18.6℃,多年平均降水量为631.7mm。气温、活动积温和年极端低温呈显著上升趋势,近54年来气温平均上升了1.94℃,升温速率远高于云南和全国水平。年极端高温和降水量呈增加趋势,但增加不明显。滇西北高原碧塔海流域背景气候呈现显著的变暖趋势。(2)1955—2011年来,碧塔海流域自然景观演变规律为草甸和灌草丛向有林地演变,气温、活动积温和年极端低温升高趋势与有林地景观面积的增加趋势大体一致,与草甸和灌草丛变化趋势相反。(3)气温、活动积温和年极端低温与碧塔海流域草甸、灌草丛和有林地的景观面积变化具有显著的相关性,是流域景观演变的主导气候要素,在草甸和灌草丛演变成有林地的过程中发挥着重要作用。极端高温和降水量对流域景观演变的作用相对较弱。     

气候和流域特征变化对淮河流域地表水文过程的影响

定量认识和理解气候与流域特征变化对淮河流域地表水文过程的影响,可以为科学管理淮河流域水资源提供重要的理论参考和技术支撑。评估了多控制因子联立求解归因方法的适用性,以此量化了淮河流域气候和Budyko参数n对不同年代蒸散发(ET)、径流变化(较基准期1961—1980年)的贡献,并且进行了归因分析,结果表明：1)多控制因子联立求解法可以准确有效地分离气候和参数n对ET和径流变化的贡献。2)在气候和参数n变化的共同影响下,20世纪80年代、90年代的ET和径流在沂沭泗河各水文分区均呈减小趋势,而在上游和中游各水文分区的变化则表现出明显的时空差异性。3)就各年代控制ET变化的主要因子,多数水文分区为参数n,其次为降水和潜在蒸散发(PET),分别集中在沂沭泗河地区和淮河上游。20世纪80年代,中游水文分区径流变化的主控因子为PET,其他水文分区则多为降水;而20世纪90年代和21世纪初多数水文分区的主控因子为参数n,其次为降水。总之,控制淮河流域ET和径流变化的物理机制具有明显的空间差异和年代际变化特征。