Global mangrove root production,its controls and roles in the blue carbon budget of mangroves

Mangroves are among the most carbon-dense ecosystems worldwide. Most of the carbon in mangroves is found belowground, and root production might be an important control of carbon accumulation, but has been rarely quantified and understood at the global scale. Here, we determined the global mangrove root production rate and its controls using a systematic review and a recently formalised, spatially explicit mangrove typology framework based on geomorphological settings. We found that global mangrove root production averaged ~770 ± 202 g of dry biomass m⁻² year⁻¹ globally, which is much higher than previously reported and close to the root production of the most productive tropical forests. Geomorphological settings exerted marked control over root production together with air temperature and precipitation (r² ≈ 30%, p < .001). Our review shows that individual global changes (e.g. warming, eutrophication, drought) have antagonist effects on root production, but they have rarely been studied in combination. Based on this newly established root production rate, root-derived carbon might account for most of the total carbon buried in mangroves, and 19 Tg C lost in mangroves each year (e.g. as CO₂). Inclusion of root production measurements in understudied geomorphological settings (i.e. deltas), regions (Indonesia, South America and Africa) and soil depth (>40 cm), as well as the creation of a mangrove root trait database will push forward our understanding of the global mangrove carbon cycle for now and the future. Overall, this review presents a comprehensive analysis of root production in mangroves, and highlights the central role of root production in the global mangrove carbon budget.     

Filter-feeding gelatinous macrozooplankton response to climate change and implications for benthic food supply and global carbon cycle

It is often suggested that gelatinous zooplankton may benefit from anthropogenic pressures of all kinds and in particular from climate change. Large pelagic tunicates, for example, are likely to be favored over other types of macrozooplankton due to their filter-feeding mode, which gives them access to small preys thought to be less affected by climate change than larger preys. In this study, we provide model-based estimate of potential community changes in macrozooplankton composition and estimate for the first time their effects on benthic food supply and on the ocean carbon cycle under two 21st-century climate-change scenarios. Forced with output from an Earth System Model climate projections, our ocean biogeochemical model simulates a large reduction in macrozooplankton biomass in response to anthropogenic climate change, but shows that gelatinous macrozooplankton are less affected than nongelatinous macrozooplankton, with global biomass declines estimated at −2.8% and −3.5%, respectively, for every 1°C of warming. The inclusion of gelatinous macrozooplankon in our ocean biogeochemical model has a limited effect on anthropogenic carbon uptake in the 21st century, but impacts the projected decline in particulate organic matter fluxes in the deep ocean. In subtropical oligotrophic gyres, where gelatinous zooplankton dominate macrozooplankton, the decline in the amount of organic matter reaching the seafloor is reduced by a factor of 2 when gelatinous macrozooplankton are considered (−17.5% vs. −29.7% when gelatinous macrozooplankton are not considered, all for 2100 under RCP8.5). The shift to gelatinous macrozooplankton in the future ocean therefore buffers the decline in deep carbon fluxes and should be taken into account when assessing potential changes in deep carbon storage and the risks that deep ecosystems may face when confronted with a decline in their food source.     

North Sea cod and climate change – modelling the effects of temperature on population dynamics

In order to examine the likely impacts of climate change on fish stocks, it is necessary to couple the output from large‐scale climate models to fisheries population simulations. Using projections of future North Sea surface temperatures for the period 2000–2050 from the Hadley General Circulation Model, we estimate the likely effects of climate change on the North Sea cod population. Output from the model suggests that increasing temperatures will lead to an increased rate of decline in the North Sea cod population compared with simulations that ignore environmental change. Although the simulation developed here is relatively simplistic, we demonstrate that inclusion of environmental factors in population models can markedly alter one's perception of how the population will behave. The development of simulations incorporating environment effects will become increasingly important as the impacts of climate change on the marine ecosystem become more pronounced.     

Parents exposed to warming produce offspring lower in weight and condition

The parental environment can alter offspring phenotypes via the transfer of non‐genetic information. Parental effects may be viewed as an extension of (within‐generation) phenotypic plasticity. Smaller size, poorer physical condition, and skewed sex ratios are common responses of organisms to global warming, yet whether parental effects alleviate, exacerbate, or have no impact on these responses has not been widely tested. Further, the relative non‐genetic influence of mothers and fathers and ontogenetic timing of parental exposure to warming on offspring phenotypes is poorly understood. Here, we tested how maternal, paternal, and biparental exposure of a coral reef fish (Acanthochromis polyacanthus) to elevated temperature (+1.5°C) at different ontogenetic stages (development vs reproduction) influences offspring length, weight, condition, and sex. Fish were reared across two generations in present‐day and projected ocean warming in a full factorial design. As expected, offspring of parents exposed to present‐day control temperature that were reared in warmer water were shorter than their siblings reared in control temperature; however, within‐generation plasticity allowed maintenance of weight, resulting in a higher body condition. Parental exposure to warming, irrespective of ontogenetic timing and sex, resulted in decreased weight and condition in all offspring rearing temperatures. By contrast, offspring sex ratios were not strongly influenced by their rearing temperature or that of their parents. Together, our results reveal that phenotypic plasticity may help coral reef fishes maintain performance in a warm ocean within a generation, but could exacerbate the negative effects of warming between generations, regardless of when mothers and fathers are exposed to warming. Alternatively, the multigenerational impact on offspring weight and condition may be a necessary cost to adapt metabolism to increasing temperatures. This research highlights the importance of examining phenotypic plasticity within and between generations across a range of traits to accurately predict how organisms will respond to climate change.     

Demographic responses to climate‐driven variation in habitat quality across the annual cycle of a migratory bird species

The demography and dynamics of migratory bird populations depend on patterns of movement and habitat quality across the annual cycle. We leveraged archival GPS‐tagging data, climate data, remote‐sensed vegetation data, and bird‐banding data to better understand the dynamics of black‐headed grosbeak (Pheucticus melanocephalus) populations in two breeding regions, the coast and Central Valley of California (Coastal California) and the Sierra Nevada mountain range (Sierra Nevada), over 28 years (1992–2019). Drought conditions across the annual cycle and rainfall timing on the molting grounds influenced seasonal habitat characteristics, including vegetation greenness and phenology (maturity dates). We developed a novel integrated population model with population state informed by adult capture data, recruitment rates informed by age‐specific capture data and climate covariates, and survival rates informed by adult capture–mark–recapture data and climate covariates. Population size was relatively variable among years for Coastal California, where numbers of recruits and survivors were positively correlated, and years of population increase were largely driven by recruitment. In the Sierra Nevada, population size was more consistent and showed stronger evidence of population regulation (numbers of recruits and survivors negatively correlated). Neither region showed evidence of long‐term population trend. We found only weak support for most climate–demographic rate relationships. However, recruitment rates for the Coastal California region were higher when rainfall was relatively early on the molting grounds and when wintering grounds were relatively cool and wet. We suggest that our approach of integrating movement, climate, and demographic data within a novel modeling framework can provide a useful method for better understanding the dynamics of broadly distributed migratory species.     

An application of the theoretical group methods to modeling of complex systems

The applicability of theoretical group methods to studying complex physical and biological systems with the potential of self-organization was demonstrated. The problem of calculating climate sensitivity parameters taking into account the cyclone-anticyclone structure of the atmosphere optically dense in the infrared region is considered as an example.     

Distributional change and conservation on the Andean flank: a palaeoecological perspective

Aim To review the insights that palaeoecology can offer on the threat posed to Andean communities by global climate change. Location The geographical focus is the eastern flank of the tropical Andes, with particular reference to Peru. Method The article presents a synthetic review of the problem. Results Species‐rich communities of the eastern Andean flank are threatened both by development and climate change. If, as predicted, the cloudbase and frost line lifts 600 m elevation this century, there will be a substantial loss of cloud forest habitat. Palaeoecology provides insights on the location and nature of past ecotones, the continuity of niche availability, and estimates for rates and modes of migration. With further warming and drying of lower montane regions, upslope migration of species will be individualistic: a new equilibrium with the altered climate is unlikely to be attained. The zone of agriculture will move upslope faster than the migrating trees and so landscape conversion will negate the ability of some species to respond to the new conditions. Conservation of the lower reaches of modern cloud forest is advocated as a means to limit this foreseeable extinction event. Main Conclusions Climate change will induce changes in plant and animal communities. Human disturbance will invade climatically marginal agricultural lands at the pace of climate change. Rapid migratory response such as that witnessed at the onset of the Holocene may not be evident as climates warm, because Holocene climatic stability has reduced outlying upslope populations that may have served as expansion nuclei. Conservation must aim to maintain plant and animal niches, rather than particular communities of species.     

Trap‐shyness subsidence is a threshold function of mark–recapture interval in brown mudfish Neochanna apoda populations

The influence of capture interval on trap shyness, and temperature, rainfall and drought on capture probability (p) in 827 brown mudfish Neochanna apoda was quantified using mark–recapture models. In particular, it was hypothesized that the loss of trapping memory in marked N. apoda would lead to a capture‐interval threshold required to minimize trap shyness. Neochanna apoda trap shyness approximated a threshold response to capture interval, declining rapidly with increasing capture intervals up to 16·5 days, after which p remained constant. Tests for detecting trap‐dependent capture probability in Cormack–Jolly–Seber models failed to detect trap shyness in N. apoda capture histories with capture intervals averaging 16 days. This confirmed the applicability of the 16 day capture‐interval threshold for mark–recapture studies. Instead, N. apoda p was positively influenced by water temperature and rainfall during capture. These results imply that a threshold capture interval is required to minimize the trade‐off between the competing assumptions of population closure and p homogeneity between capture occasions in closed mark–recapture models. Moreover, environmental factors that influence behaviour could potentially confound abundance indices, and consequently abundance trends should be interpreted with caution in the face of long‐term climate change, such as with global warming.     

Timing and size of blooms of the ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi in relation to temperature in Narragansett Bay, RI

The ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi is at the northern extreme of its geographic range in Narragansett Bay, an estuary on the northeast coast of the United States. Blooms have typically been observed in late summer and fall according to records from 1950 to 1979. We document an expansion of the seasonal range of this important planktonic predator to include springtime blooms during the 1980s and 1990s. This shift to an earlier seasonal maximum is associated with increasing water temperature in Narragansett Bay. Temperatures in spring have risen, on average, 2 °C from 1950 to 1999 with warm years being associated with the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. During 1999, M. leidyi appeared earlier in spring and was more abundant than during any previous year for which records are available. Changes in the seasonal pattern and abundance of this predator are likely to have important effects on planktonic ecosystem dynamics of Narragansett Bay. These include reduction of zooplankton abundance in spring followed by increases in size and frequency of summer phytoplankton blooms. Earlier blooms of M. leidyi may also reduce survival of eggs and larvae of fish because, as in 1999, they coincide with the period of peak spawning.