Climate change and Australia: Trends,projections and impacts

Abstract This review summarizes recent research in Australia on: (i) climate and geophysical trends over the last few decades; (ii) projections for climate change in the 21st century; (iii) predicted impacts from modelling studies on particular ecosystems and native species; and (iv) ecological effects that have apparently occurred as a response to recent warming. Consistent with global trends, Australia has warmed ～0.8°C over the last century with minimum temperatures warming faster than maxima. There have been significant regional trends in rainfall with the northern, eastern and southern parts of the continent receiving greater rainfall and the western region receiving less. Higher rainfall has been associated with an increase in the number of rain days and heavy rainfall events. Sea surface temperatures on the Great Barrier Reef have increased and are associated with an increase in the frequency and severity of coral bleaching and mortality. Sea level rises in Australia have been regionally variable, and considerably less than the global average. Snow cover and duration have declined significantly at some sites in the Snowy Mountains. CSIRO projections for future climatic changes indicate increases in annual average temperatures of 0.4–2.0°C by 2030 (relative to 1990) and 1.0–6.0°C by 2070. Considerable uncertainty remains as to future changes in rainfall, El Niño Southern Oscillation events and tropical cyclone activity. Overall increases in potential evaporation over much of the continent are predicted as well as continued reductions in the extent and duration of snow cover. Future changes in temperature and rainfall are predicted to have significant impacts on most vegetation types that have been modelled to date, although the interactive effect of continuing increases in atmospheric CO₂ has not been incorporated into most modelling studies. Elevated CO₂ will most likely mitigate some of the impacts of climate change by reducing water stress. Future impacts on particular ecosystems include increased forest growth, alterations in competitive regimes between C3 and C4 grasses, increasing encroachment of woody shrubs into arid and semiarid rangelands, continued incursion of mangrove communities into freshwater wetlands, increasing frequency of coral bleaching, and establishment of woody species at increasingly higher elevations in the alpine zone. Modelling of potential impacts on specific Australian taxa using bioclimatic analysis programs such as bioclim consistently predicts contraction and/or fragmentation of species' current ranges. The bioclimates of some species of plants and vertebrates are predicted to disappear entirely with as little as 0.5–1.0°C of warming. Australia lacks the long‐term datasets and tradition of phenological monitoring that have allowed the detection of climate‐change‐related trends in the Northern Hemisphere. Long‐term changes in Australian vegetation can be mostly attributed to alterations in fire regimes, clearing and grazing, but some trends, such as encroachment of rainforest into eucalypt woodlands, and establishment of trees in subalpine meadows probably have a climatic component. Shifts in species distributions toward the south (bats, birds), upward in elevation (alpine mammals) or along changing rainfall contours (birds, semiarid reptiles), have recently been documented and offer circumstantial evidence that temperature and rainfall trends are already affecting geographic ranges. Future research directions suggested include giving more emphasis to the study of climatic impacts and understanding the factors that control species distributions, incorporating the effects of elevated CO₂ into climatic modelling for vegetation and selecting suitable species as indicators of climate‐induced change.     

Optical Properties and Light Climate in Lake Verevi

The optical properties and light climate during the ice-free period in the highly stratified Lake Verevi (Estonia) have been studied together with other lakes in same region since 1994. The upper water layer above the thermocline belongs to class “moderate” by optical classification of Estonian lakes but can turn “turbid” (concentration of chlorophyll a up to 73 mg m⁻³ and total suspended matter up to 13.2 g m⁻³) during late summer blooms. In the blue part of the spectrum, light is mainly attenuated by dissolved organic matter and in red part notably scattering but also absorption by phytoplanktonic pigments effect the spectral distribution of underwater light. Consequently, the underwater light is of greenish-yellow color (550–650 nm). Rapid change in optical properties occurs with an increase of all optically active substances close to thermocline (2.5–6 m). Optical measurements are often hampered beneath this layer so that modeling of the depth distribution of the diffuse attenuation coefficient is an useful compliment to field measurements. K_d,PAR ranges from 0.8 to 2.9 m⁻¹ in the surface layer, and model results suggest that it may be up to 5.8 m⁻¹ in the optically dense layer. This forms a barrier for light penetration into the hypolimnion.     

Mineral control of organic carbon mineralization in a range of temperate conifer forest soils

Coupled climate–ecosystem models predict significant alteration of temperate forest biome distribution in response to climate warming. Temperate forest biomes contain approximately 10% of global soil carbon (C) stocks and therefore any change in their distribution may have significant impacts on terrestrial C budgets. Using the Sierra Nevada as a model system for temperate forest soils, we examined the effects of temperature and soil mineralogy on soil C mineralization. We incubated soils from three conifer biomes dominated by ponderosa pine (PP), white fir (WF), and red fir (RF) tree species, on granite (GR), basalt (BS), and andesite (AN) parent materials, at three temperatures (12.5°C, 7.5°C, 5.0°C). AN soils were dominated by noncrystalline materials (allophane, Al‐humus complexes), GR soils by crystalline minerals (kaolinite, vermiculite), and BS soils by a mix of crystalline and noncrystalline materials. Soil C mineralization (ranging from 1.9 to 34.6 [mg C (g soil C)^?1] or 0.1 to 2.3 [mg C (g soil)^?1]) differed significantly between parent materials in all biomes with a general pattern of ANδ¹³C values of respired CO₂ suggest greater decomposition of recalcitrant soil C compounds with increasing temperature, indicating a shift in primary C source utilization with temperature. Our results demonstrate that soil mineralogy moderates soil C mineralization and that soil C response to temperature includes shifts in decomposition rates, mineralizable pool size, and primary C source utilization.     

中国东北样带(NECT):十年集成与未来挑战

Northeast China Transect (NECT), one of the fifteen International Biosphere-Geosphere Programme (IGBP) terrestrial transects, has been established for 10 years by Prof. Zhang Xin-Shi, through a core project of the IGBP - the Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems (GCTE). This transect is located in the mid-latitude semi-arid region, ranging 42-46°N latitude and 110-132癊 longitude. The primary driving force for global change is precipitation and the secondary one is land use intensity. Research progresses have been performed during the past decade in the following aspects: ecological database development, climate and its variability, ecophysiological response of plants to environments, vegetation and landscape changes, biodiversity patterns and their changes, plant functional types and traits with relation to climatic gradient, productivity and carbon dynamics, pollen-vegetation relationship, trace gas emissions, land use and land cover changes, as well as biogeographical and biogeochemical modelling. In order to achieve the higher level of integrated research, the NECT needs the consistent basic data sets within the same framework, further field experiments and observations, integrated simulations of vegetation structure, process and function from patch, landscape to biome scales, intercomparisons of results and simulations within the transect and to other IGBP transects, multidisciplinary research, national and international co-ordinates, and full scientific plan and implementation strategy.     

西北干旱区玉米对气候变暖的响应

利用地面观测资料,就西北干旱区河西走廊绿洲作物玉米(Zea mays L.)对变暖的响应进行了初步的探讨.结果表明:近二十多年来,西北干旱区作物玉米对变暖的响应以生长季提前和生长期缩短为主要方式.但是,存在一个临界温度,当玉米生长期间平均气温小于临界温度时,增温使玉米生长期缩短;当玉米生长期间平均温度大于临界温度时,增温使玉米生长期有不再减小的趋势.未来的持续增温可能导致玉米生长期平均气温超过临界温度,从而可能使西北干旱区玉米生长期延长.西北干旱区作物玉米对变暖的响应还表现出一定的阶段差异,增温使玉米拔节期以前的营养生长阶段缩短,抽雄-槭乳熟期的生殖生长阶段延长,乳熟-成熟期的生殖生长阶段缩短.西北干旱区作物玉米对变暖响应的这种特点可能与绿洲的气候特点、作物的生理特性及增温的季节差异有关,而其响应的生物学机制可能与变暖使自然植被秋季生长季延长的生物学机制不同.     

Does photosynthetic acclimation to elevated CO2 increase photosynthetic nitrogen-use efficiency? A study of three native UK grassland species in open-top chambers

1. The photosynthetic response to elevated CO₂ and nutrient stress was investigated in Agrostis capillaris, Lolium perenne and Trifolium repens grown in an open-top chamber facility for 2 years under two nutrient regimes. Acclimation was evaluated by measuring the response of light-saturated photosynthesis to changes in the substomatal CO₂ concentration.
2. Growth at elevated CO₂ resulted in reductions in apparent Rubisco activity in vivo in all three species, which were associated with reductions of total leaf nitrogen content on a unit area basis for A. capillaris and L. perenne . Despite this acclimation, photosynthesis was significantly higher at elevated CO₂ for T. repens and A. capillaris , the latter exhibiting the greatest increase of carbon uptake at the lowest nutrient supply.
3. The photosynthetic nitrogen-use efficiency (the rate of carbon assimilation per unit leaf nitrogen) increased at elevated CO₂, not purely owing to higher values of photosynthesis at elevated CO₂, but also as a result of lower leaf nitrogen contents.
4. Contrary to most previous studies, this investigation indicates that elevated CO₂ can stimulate photosynthesis under a severely limited nutrient supply. Changes in photosynthetic nitrogen-use efficiency may be a critical determinant of competition within low nutrient ecosystems and low input agricultural systems.     

Niche Conservatism and Future Changes in the Potential Area Coverage of Arundina graminifolia,an Invasive Orchid Species from Southeast Asia

The Asian orchid, Arundina graminifolia, has been introduced to many locations over the last 50 yr, predominantly in South and Central America. A list of localities of A. graminifolia was compiled and used to model potential climatic niches based on the maximum entropy method. The differences are presented between niches occupied by native and invasive populations of A. graminifolia, and possible changes in the potential range of the species are discussed on the basis of various climate change scenarios. The coverage of habitats suitable for A. graminifolia will be reduced under future climate changes scenarios. The created niche distribution models indicated a more significant reduction in the potential ecological niches of the studied species in its invasive range. Nevertheless, areas with potentially suitable bioclimatic conditions for A. graminifolia should be monitored to prevent future uncontrolled invasion of the orchid into new habitats and to study its impact on the local ecosystems, as vast areas of its potential niche in the Americas are still unoccupied.     

Links between plant species’ spatial and temporal responses to a warming climate

To generate realistic projections of species’ responses to climate change, we need to understand the factors that limit their ability to respond. Although climatic niche conservatism, the maintenance of a species’s climatic niche over time, is a critical assumption in niche-based species distribution models, little is known about how universal it is and how it operates. In particular, few studies have tested the role of climatic niche conservatism via phenological changes in explaining the reported wide variance in the extent of range shifts among species. Using historical records of the phenology and spatial distribution of British plants under a warming climate, we revealed that: (i) perennial species, as well as those with weaker or lagged phenological responses to temperature, experienced a greater increase in temperature during flowering (i.e. failed to maintain climatic niche via phenological changes); (ii) species that failed to maintain climatic niche via phenological changes showed greater northward range shifts; and (iii) there was a complementary relationship between the levels of climatic niche conservatism via phenological changes and range shifts. These results indicate that even species with high climatic niche conservatism might not show range shifts as instead they track warming temperatures during flowering by advancing their phenology.     

Co‐benefits,trade‐offs,barriers and policies for greenhouse gas mitigation in the agriculture,forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector

The agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector is responsible for approximately 25% of anthropogenic GHG emissions mainly from deforestation and agricultural emissions from livestock, soil and nutrient management. Mitigation from the sector is thus extremely important in meeting emission reduction targets. The sector offers a variety of cost‐competitive mitigation options with most analyses indicating a decline in emissions largely due to decreasing deforestation rates. Sustainability criteria are needed to guide development and implementation of AFOLU mitigation measures with particular focus on multifunctional systems that allow the delivery of multiple services from land. It is striking that almost all of the positive and negative impacts, opportunities and barriers are context specific, precluding generic statements about which AFOLU mitigation measures have the greatest promise at a global scale. This finding underlines the importance of considering each mitigation strategy on a case‐by‐case basis, systemic effects when implementing mitigation options on the national scale, and suggests that policies need to be flexible enough to allow such assessments. National and international agricultural and forest (climate) policies have the potential to alter the opportunity costs of specific land uses in ways that increase opportunities or barriers for attaining climate change mitigation goals. Policies governing practices in agriculture and in forest conservation and management need to account for both effective mitigation and adaptation and can help to orient practices in agriculture and in forestry towards global sharing of innovative technologies for the efficient use of land resources. Different policy instruments, especially economic incentives and regulatory approaches, are currently being applied however, for its successful implementation it is critical to understand how land‐use decisions are made and how new social, political and economic forces in the future will influence this process.     

Temperature increase and fluctuation induce phytoplankton biodiversity loss – Evidence from a multi‐seasonal mesocosm experiment

Global climate change scenarios predict lake water temperatures to increase up to 4°C and extreme weather events, including heat waves and large temperature fluctuations, to occur more frequently. Such changes may result in a reorganization of the plankton community structure, causing shifts in diversity and structure toward a community dominated by fewer species that are more adapted to endure warmer and irregular temperature conditions. We designed a long‐term (8 months) mesocosm experiment to explore how ambient water temperature (C: control), induced increased temperature (T: +4°C), and temperature fluctuations (F: ±4°C relative to T) change phytoplankton phenology, taxonomical diversity, and community structure, and how such changes affected zooplankton abundance and composition. Synthesis. Our results show that T and F relative to C significantly decreased phytoplankton diversity. Moreover, there was a clear effect of the temperature treatments (T and F) on phytoplankton size structure that resulted in a significantly lower growth of large species (i.e., large Chlorophyta) compared to C. Decreased diversity and evenness in the T and F treatments pushed the community toward the dominance of only a few phytoplankton taxa (mainly Cyanobacteria and Chlorophyta) that are better adapted to endure warmer and more irregular temperature conditions. The observed shift toward Cyanobacteria dominance may affect trophic energy transfer along the aquatic food web.