Chilling outweighs photoperiod in preventing precocious spring development

It is well known that increased spring temperatures cause earlier onset dates of leaf unfolding and flowering. However, a temperature increase in winter may be associated with delayed development when species' chilling requirements are not fulfilled. Furthermore, photosensitivity is supposed to interfere with temperature triggers. To date, neither the relative importance nor possible interactions of these three factors have been elucidated. In this study, we present a multispecies climate chamber experiment to test the effects of chilling and photoperiod on the spring phenology of 36 woody species. Several hypotheses regarding their variation with species traits (successional strategy, floristic status, climate of their native range) were tested. Long photoperiods advanced budburst for one‐third of the studied species, but magnitudes of these effects were generally minor. In contrast to prior hypotheses, photosensitive responses were not restricted to climax or oceanic species. Increased chilling length advanced budburst for almost all species; its effect greatly exceeding that of photoperiod. Moreover, we suggest that photosensitivity and chilling effects have to be rigorously disentangled, as the response to photoperiod was restricted to individuals that had not been fully chilled. The results indicate that temperature requirements and successional strategy are linked, with climax species having higher chilling and forcing requirements than pioneer species. Temperature requirements of invasive species closely matched those of native species, suggesting that high phenological concordance is a prerequisite for successful establishment. Lack of chilling not only led to a considerable delay in budburst but also caused substantial changes in the chronological order of species' budburst. The results reveal that increased winter temperatures might impact forest ecosystems more than formerly assumed. Species with lower chilling requirements, such as pioneer or invasive species, might profit from warming winters, if late spring frost events would in parallel occur earlier.     

Ecological significance of seed desiccation sensitivity in Quercus ilex

Background and Aims

Several widespread tree species of temperate forests, such as species of the genus Quercus, produce recalcitrant (desiccation-sensitive) seeds. However, the ecological significance of seed desiccation sensitivity in temperate regions is largely unknown. Do seeds of such species suffer from drying during the period when they remain on the soil, between shedding in autumn and the return of conditions required for germination in spring?

Methods

To test this hypothesis, the Mediterranean holm oak (Quercus ilex) forest was used as a model system. The relationships between the climate in winter, the characteristics of microhabitats, acorn morphological traits, and the water status and viability of seeds after winter were then investigated in 42 woodlands sampled over the entire French distribution of the species.

Key Results

The percentages of germination and normal seedling development were tightly linked to the water content of seeds after the winter period, revealing that in situ desiccation is a major cause of mortality. The homogeneity of seed response to drying suggests that neither intraspecific genetic variation nor environmental conditions had a significant impact on the level of desiccation sensitivity of seeds. In contrast, the water and viability status of seeds at the time of collection were dramatically influenced by cumulative rainfall and maximum temperatures during winter. A significant effect of shade and of the type of soil cover was also evidenced.

Conclusions

The findings establish that seed desiccation sensitivity is a key functional trait which may influence the success of recruitment in temperate recalcitrant seed species. Considering that most models of climate change predict changes in rainfall and temperature in the Mediterranean basin, the present work could help foresee changes in the distribution of Q. ilex and other oak species, and hence plant community alterations.     

Regional and local determinants of drought resilience in tropical forests

The increase in severity of droughts associated with greater mortality and reduced vegetation growth is one of the main threats to tropical forests. Drought resilience of tropical forests is affected by multiple biotic and abiotic factors varying at different scales. Identifying those factors can help understanding the resilience to ongoing and future climate change. Altitude leads to high climate variation and to different forest formations, principally moist or dry tropical forests with contrasted vegetation structure. Each tropical forest can show distinct responses to droughts. Locally, topography is also a key factor controlling biotic and abiotic factors related to drought resilience in each forest type. Here, we show that topography has key roles controlling biotic and abiotic factors in each forest type. The most important abiotic factors are soil nutrients, water availability, and microclimate. The most important biotic factors are leaf economic and hydraulic plant traits, and vegetation structure. Both dry tropical forests and ridges (steeper and drier habitats) are more sensitive to droughts than moist tropical forest and valleys (flatter and wetter habitats). The higher mortality in ridges suggests that conservative traits are not sufficient to protect plants from drought in drier steeper habitats. Our synthesis highlights that altitude and topography gradients are essential to understand mechanisms of tropical forest''s resilience to future drought events. We described important factors related to drought resilience, however, many important knowledge gaps remain. Filling those gaps will help improve future practices and studies about mitigation capacity, conservation, and restoration of tropical ecosystems.     

Birds are tracking climate warming, but not fast enough

Range shifts of many species are now documented as a response to global warming. But whether these observed changes are occurring fast enough remains uncertain and hardly quantifiable. Here, we developed a simple framework to measure change in community composition in response to climate warming. This framework is based on a community temperature index (CTI) that directly reflects, for a given species assemblage, the balance between low- and high-temperature dwelling species. Using data from the French breeding bird survey, we first found a strong increase in CTI over the last two decades revealing that birds are rapidly tracking climate warming. This increase corresponds to a 91 km northward shift in bird community composition, which is much higher than previous estimates based on changes in species range edges. During the same period, temperature increase corresponds to a 273 km northward shift in temperature. Change in community composition was thus insufficient to keep up with temperature increase: birds are lagging approximately 182 km behind climate warming. Our method is applicable to any taxa with large-scale survey data, using either abundance or occurrence data. This approach can be further used to test whether different delays are found across groups or in different land-use contexts.     

Estimating co-extinction threats in terrestrial ecosystems

The biosphere is changing rapidly due to human endeavour. Because ecological communities underlie networks of interacting species, changes that directly affect some species can have indirect effects on others. Accurate tools to predict these direct and indirect effects are therefore required to guide conservation strategies. However, most extinction-risk studies only consider the direct effects of global change—such as predicting which species will breach their thermal limits under different warming scenarios—with predictions of trophic cascades and co-extinction risks remaining mostly speculative. To predict the potential indirect effects of primary extinctions, data describing community interactions and network modelling can estimate how extinctions cascade through communities. While theoretical studies have demonstrated the usefulness of models in predicting how communities react to threats like climate change, few have applied such methods to real-world communities. This gap partly reflects challenges in constructing trophic network models of real-world food webs, highlighting the need to develop approaches for quantifying co-extinction risk more accurately. We propose a framework for constructing ecological network models representing real-world food webs in terrestrial ecosystems and subjecting these models to co-extinction scenarios triggered by probable future environmental perturbations. Adopting our framework will improve estimates of how environmental perturbations affect whole ecological communities. Identifying species at risk of co-extinction (or those that might trigger co-extinctions) will also guide conservation interventions aiming to reduce the probability of co-extinction cascades and additional species losses.     

Seed banks of a southern Australian wetland: the influence of water regime on the final floristic composition

The sediments of a southern Australian wetland complex were investigated to determine the germinable seed bank. The number of seeds ranged from 22,000 to 78,000 m^–2. Non-metric multi dimensional scaling (NMS) ordination based upon species composition separated the four basins but each contained the representatives of the major functional groups: terrestrial, amphibious and submerged. To test the influence of water regime on the final floristic composition derived from these seed banks, sediments were positioned at three elevations (0, 30 and 80 cm) and subjected to three hydrologic regimes (static water level, and draw down rates of 2.5 and 7 cm week^–1). Species compositions were analysed after 98 days via ordination. Despite significant differences in the initial seed bank composition the final floristic compositions were correlated with the water regime and independent of the initial seed bank composition. Species groups were segregated on a basis of whether sediments were continuously exposed to the atmosphere, the rate of draw down and the water depth. Moist sediments were dominated by species belonging to all the main functional groups. Sediments subject to rapid drying were dominated by terrestrial species whereas sediments that were flooded for the majority of the time were dominated by submerged species.     

Field and climate‐based model for predicting the density of host‐seeking nymphal Ixodes scapularis,an important vector of tick‐borne disease agents in the eastern United States

Aim Ixodes scapularis is the most important vector of human tick‐borne pathogens in the United States, which include the agents of Lyme disease, human babesiosis and human anaplasmosis, among others. The density of host‐seeking I. scapularis nymphs is an important component of human risk for acquiring Borrelia burgdorferi, the aetiological agent of Lyme disease. In this study we used climate and field sampling data to generate a predictive map of the density of host‐seeking I. scapularis nymphs that can be used by the public, physicians and public health agencies to assist with the diagnosis and reporting of disease, and to better target disease prevention and control efforts. Location Eastern United States of America. Methods We sampled host‐seeking I. scapularis nymphs in 304 locations uniformly distributed east of the 100th meridian between 2004 and 2006. Between May and September, 1000 m² were drag sampled three to six times per site. We developed a zero‐inflated negative binomial model to predict the density of host‐seeking I. scapularis nymphs based on altitude, interpolated weather station and remotely sensed data. Results Variables that had the strongest relationship with nymphal density were altitude, monthly mean vapour pressure deficit and spatial autocorrelation. Forest fragmentation and soil texture were not predictive. The best‐fit model identified two main foci – the north‐east and upper Midwest – and predicted the presence and absence of I. scapularis nymphs with 82% accuracy, with 89% sensitivity and 82% specificity. Areas of concordance and discordance with previous studies were discussed. Areas with high predicted but low observed densities of host‐seeking nymphs were identified as potential expansion fronts. Main conclusions This model is unique in its extensive and unbiased field sampling effort, allowing for an accurate delineation of the density of host‐seeking I. scapularis nymphs, an important component of human risk of infection for B. burgdorferi and other I. scapularis‐borne pathogens.