Birds are tracking climate warming, but not fast enough

Range shifts of many species are now documented as a response to global warming. But whether these observed changes are occurring fast enough remains uncertain and hardly quantifiable. Here, we developed a simple framework to measure change in community composition in response to climate warming. This framework is based on a community temperature index (CTI) that directly reflects, for a given species assemblage, the balance between low- and high-temperature dwelling species. Using data from the French breeding bird survey, we first found a strong increase in CTI over the last two decades revealing that birds are rapidly tracking climate warming. This increase corresponds to a 91 km northward shift in bird community composition, which is much higher than previous estimates based on changes in species range edges. During the same period, temperature increase corresponds to a 273 km northward shift in temperature. Change in community composition was thus insufficient to keep up with temperature increase: birds are lagging approximately 182 km behind climate warming. Our method is applicable to any taxa with large-scale survey data, using either abundance or occurrence data. This approach can be further used to test whether different delays are found across groups or in different land-use contexts.     

空间异质性对样地数据空间外推的影响

应用模型结合的方法模拟了3个空间异质性等级预案下反应变量(气候变化下景观水平的树种分布面积)的变化情况,并分析模拟结果在预案之间的差异性,探讨了环境空间异质性对样地观测到的树种对气候变化响应向更大空间尺度外推的影响.结果表明：空间异质性在一般情况下对样地数据向土地类型尺度外推没有影响,而对样地尺度外推到海拔带尺度的影响则有较复杂的情况.对于对气候变化不敏感的树种以及非地带性树种,空间异质性对样地数据向海拔带尺度外推没有影响;对于大多数对气候变化敏感的地带性树种而言,空间异质性对样地数据向海拔带尺度外推则有影响.     

Upward shift of alpine plants increases floristic similarity of mountain summits

Question: Does the upward shift of species and accompanied increase in species richness, induced by climate change, lead to homogenization of Alpine summit vegetation? Location: Bernina region of the Swiss Alps. Methods: Based on a data set from previous literature we expand the analysis from species richness to beta‐diversity and spatial heterogeneity. Species compositions of mountain summits are compared using a two‐component heterogeneity concept including the mean and the variance of Sørensen similarities calculated between the summits. Non‐metric multidimensional scaling is applied to explore developments of single summits in detail. Results: Both heterogeneity components (mean dissimilarity and variance) decrease over time, indicating a trend towards more homogeneous vegetation among Alpine summits. However, the development on single summits is not strictly unidirectional. Conclusions: The upward shift of plant species leads to homogenization of alpine summit regions. Thus, increasing alpha‐diversity is accompanied by decreasing beta‐diversity. Beta‐diversity demands higher recognition by scientists as well as nature conservationists as it detects changes which cannot be described using species richness alone.     

Estimating co-extinction threats in terrestrial ecosystems

The biosphere is changing rapidly due to human endeavour. Because ecological communities underlie networks of interacting species, changes that directly affect some species can have indirect effects on others. Accurate tools to predict these direct and indirect effects are therefore required to guide conservation strategies. However, most extinction-risk studies only consider the direct effects of global change—such as predicting which species will breach their thermal limits under different warming scenarios—with predictions of trophic cascades and co-extinction risks remaining mostly speculative. To predict the potential indirect effects of primary extinctions, data describing community interactions and network modelling can estimate how extinctions cascade through communities. While theoretical studies have demonstrated the usefulness of models in predicting how communities react to threats like climate change, few have applied such methods to real-world communities. This gap partly reflects challenges in constructing trophic network models of real-world food webs, highlighting the need to develop approaches for quantifying co-extinction risk more accurately. We propose a framework for constructing ecological network models representing real-world food webs in terrestrial ecosystems and subjecting these models to co-extinction scenarios triggered by probable future environmental perturbations. Adopting our framework will improve estimates of how environmental perturbations affect whole ecological communities. Identifying species at risk of co-extinction (or those that might trigger co-extinctions) will also guide conservation interventions aiming to reduce the probability of co-extinction cascades and additional species losses.     

Deriving how far structural information is transmitted through parallel homodimeric coiled‐coils: A correlation analysis of helical staggers

How local conformation is affected by local sequence is fairly well understood for alpha‐helical coiled‐coils, but less is known about how local conformation is influenced by distant features. Here, I describe an approach to detect such an effect, based on computing correlation coefficients of local out‐of‐register alignments, or so‐called “staggers” between the helices, as a function of the axial distance between the staggers. This approach requires parallel homodimers, in which each stagger can occur with two “signs,” where either one helix or the other is shifted towards the N terminus. The signs of such staggers separated by up to 12 residues are strongly correlated, indicating that the conformations of the ends of coiled‐coils are commonly influenced by attached structures. Thus, the structures of coiled‐coil residues aberrantly attached to alternative proteins, such as those resulting from leukemogenic chromosomal rearrangements, may be distinguishable from those in normal tissues, and in turn serve as targets of selective drug design. The signs of helical staggers separated by between 13 and 30 residues are moderately yet significantly correlated, indicating that some of the coiled‐coils transmit this conformational feature axially for at least 45 Å. A positive, albeit noisy, correlation also exists among tropomyosin coiled‐coils for signed staggers separated by the 40‐residue actin repeat distance, consistent with the semi‐flexible tropomyosin filament binding F‐actin and regulating skeletal muscle contraction in a partially cooperative manner. Communication of the signs of axial staggers is explained in part by minimization of main‐chain hydrogen bond deformations. © Proteins 2013. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

RUNAWAY COEVOLUTION: ADAPTATION TO HERITABLE AND NONHERITABLE ENVIRONMENTS

Populations evolve in response to the external environment, whether abiotic (e.g., climate) or biotic (e.g., other conspecifics). We investigated how adaptation to biotic, heritable environments differs from adaptation to abiotic, nonheritable environments. We found that, for the same selection coefficients, the coadaptive process between genes and heritable environments is much faster than genetic adaptation to an abiotic nonheritable environment. The increased rate of adaptation results from the positive association generated by reciprocal selection between the heritable environment and the genes responding to it. These associations result in a runaway process of adaptive coevolution, even when the genes creating the heritable environment and genes responding to the heritable environment are unlinked. Although tightening the degree of linkage accelerates the coadaptive process, the acceleration caused by a comparable amount of inbreeding is greater, because inbreeding has a cumulative effect on reducing functional recombination over generations. Our results suggest that that adaptation to local abiotic environmental variation may result in the rapid diversification of populations and subsequent reproductive isolation not directly but rather via its effects on heritable environments and the genes responding to them.     

Living with observational data in biological anthropology

The establishment of cause and effect relationships is a fundamental objective of scientific research. Many lines of evidence can be used to make cause–effect inferences. When statistical data are involved, alternative explanations for the statistical relationship need to be ruled out. These include chance (apparent patterns due to random factors), confounding effects (a relationship between two variables because they are each associated with an unmeasured third variable), and sampling bias (effects due to preexisting properties of compared groups). The gold standard for managing these issues is a controlled randomized experiment. In disciplines such as biological anthropology, where controlled experiments are not possible for many research questions, causal inferences are made from observational data. Methods that statisticians recommend for this difficult objective have not been widely adopted in the biological anthropology literature. Issues involved in using statistics to make valid causal inferences from observational data are discussed.     

Seed banks of a southern Australian wetland: the influence of water regime on the final floristic composition

The sediments of a southern Australian wetland complex were investigated to determine the germinable seed bank. The number of seeds ranged from 22,000 to 78,000 m^–2. Non-metric multi dimensional scaling (NMS) ordination based upon species composition separated the four basins but each contained the representatives of the major functional groups: terrestrial, amphibious and submerged. To test the influence of water regime on the final floristic composition derived from these seed banks, sediments were positioned at three elevations (0, 30 and 80 cm) and subjected to three hydrologic regimes (static water level, and draw down rates of 2.5 and 7 cm week^–1). Species compositions were analysed after 98 days via ordination. Despite significant differences in the initial seed bank composition the final floristic compositions were correlated with the water regime and independent of the initial seed bank composition. Species groups were segregated on a basis of whether sediments were continuously exposed to the atmosphere, the rate of draw down and the water depth. Moist sediments were dominated by species belonging to all the main functional groups. Sediments subject to rapid drying were dominated by terrestrial species whereas sediments that were flooded for the majority of the time were dominated by submerged species.