Birds are tracking climate warming, but not fast enough

Range shifts of many species are now documented as a response to global warming. But whether these observed changes are occurring fast enough remains uncertain and hardly quantifiable. Here, we developed a simple framework to measure change in community composition in response to climate warming. This framework is based on a community temperature index (CTI) that directly reflects, for a given species assemblage, the balance between low- and high-temperature dwelling species. Using data from the French breeding bird survey, we first found a strong increase in CTI over the last two decades revealing that birds are rapidly tracking climate warming. This increase corresponds to a 91 km northward shift in bird community composition, which is much higher than previous estimates based on changes in species range edges. During the same period, temperature increase corresponds to a 273 km northward shift in temperature. Change in community composition was thus insufficient to keep up with temperature increase: birds are lagging approximately 182 km behind climate warming. Our method is applicable to any taxa with large-scale survey data, using either abundance or occurrence data. This approach can be further used to test whether different delays are found across groups or in different land-use contexts.     

空间异质性对样地数据空间外推的影响

应用模型结合的方法模拟了3个空间异质性等级预案下反应变量(气候变化下景观水平的树种分布面积)的变化情况,并分析模拟结果在预案之间的差异性,探讨了环境空间异质性对样地观测到的树种对气候变化响应向更大空间尺度外推的影响.结果表明：空间异质性在一般情况下对样地数据向土地类型尺度外推没有影响,而对样地尺度外推到海拔带尺度的影响则有较复杂的情况.对于对气候变化不敏感的树种以及非地带性树种,空间异质性对样地数据向海拔带尺度外推没有影响;对于大多数对气候变化敏感的地带性树种而言,空间异质性对样地数据向海拔带尺度外推则有影响.     

Estimating co-extinction threats in terrestrial ecosystems

The biosphere is changing rapidly due to human endeavour. Because ecological communities underlie networks of interacting species, changes that directly affect some species can have indirect effects on others. Accurate tools to predict these direct and indirect effects are therefore required to guide conservation strategies. However, most extinction-risk studies only consider the direct effects of global change—such as predicting which species will breach their thermal limits under different warming scenarios—with predictions of trophic cascades and co-extinction risks remaining mostly speculative. To predict the potential indirect effects of primary extinctions, data describing community interactions and network modelling can estimate how extinctions cascade through communities. While theoretical studies have demonstrated the usefulness of models in predicting how communities react to threats like climate change, few have applied such methods to real-world communities. This gap partly reflects challenges in constructing trophic network models of real-world food webs, highlighting the need to develop approaches for quantifying co-extinction risk more accurately. We propose a framework for constructing ecological network models representing real-world food webs in terrestrial ecosystems and subjecting these models to co-extinction scenarios triggered by probable future environmental perturbations. Adopting our framework will improve estimates of how environmental perturbations affect whole ecological communities. Identifying species at risk of co-extinction (or those that might trigger co-extinctions) will also guide conservation interventions aiming to reduce the probability of co-extinction cascades and additional species losses.     

Seed banks of a southern Australian wetland: the influence of water regime on the final floristic composition

The sediments of a southern Australian wetland complex were investigated to determine the germinable seed bank. The number of seeds ranged from 22,000 to 78,000 m^–2. Non-metric multi dimensional scaling (NMS) ordination based upon species composition separated the four basins but each contained the representatives of the major functional groups: terrestrial, amphibious and submerged. To test the influence of water regime on the final floristic composition derived from these seed banks, sediments were positioned at three elevations (0, 30 and 80 cm) and subjected to three hydrologic regimes (static water level, and draw down rates of 2.5 and 7 cm week^–1). Species compositions were analysed after 98 days via ordination. Despite significant differences in the initial seed bank composition the final floristic compositions were correlated with the water regime and independent of the initial seed bank composition. Species groups were segregated on a basis of whether sediments were continuously exposed to the atmosphere, the rate of draw down and the water depth. Moist sediments were dominated by species belonging to all the main functional groups. Sediments subject to rapid drying were dominated by terrestrial species whereas sediments that were flooded for the majority of the time were dominated by submerged species.     

Field and climate‐based model for predicting the density of host‐seeking nymphal Ixodes scapularis,an important vector of tick‐borne disease agents in the eastern United States

Aim Ixodes scapularis is the most important vector of human tick‐borne pathogens in the United States, which include the agents of Lyme disease, human babesiosis and human anaplasmosis, among others. The density of host‐seeking I. scapularis nymphs is an important component of human risk for acquiring Borrelia burgdorferi, the aetiological agent of Lyme disease. In this study we used climate and field sampling data to generate a predictive map of the density of host‐seeking I. scapularis nymphs that can be used by the public, physicians and public health agencies to assist with the diagnosis and reporting of disease, and to better target disease prevention and control efforts. Location Eastern United States of America. Methods We sampled host‐seeking I. scapularis nymphs in 304 locations uniformly distributed east of the 100th meridian between 2004 and 2006. Between May and September, 1000 m² were drag sampled three to six times per site. We developed a zero‐inflated negative binomial model to predict the density of host‐seeking I. scapularis nymphs based on altitude, interpolated weather station and remotely sensed data. Results Variables that had the strongest relationship with nymphal density were altitude, monthly mean vapour pressure deficit and spatial autocorrelation. Forest fragmentation and soil texture were not predictive. The best‐fit model identified two main foci – the north‐east and upper Midwest – and predicted the presence and absence of I. scapularis nymphs with 82% accuracy, with 89% sensitivity and 82% specificity. Areas of concordance and discordance with previous studies were discussed. Areas with high predicted but low observed densities of host‐seeking nymphs were identified as potential expansion fronts. Main conclusions This model is unique in its extensive and unbiased field sampling effort, allowing for an accurate delineation of the density of host‐seeking I. scapularis nymphs, an important component of human risk of infection for B. burgdorferi and other I. scapularis‐borne pathogens.     

Length–weight relationships of seven fish species in the Yangtze River Estuary and its adjacent waters,Eastern China

The length–weight relationships (LWRs) for seven fish species belonging to five families in the Yangtze River Estuary and its adjacent waters are presented. Cynoglossus gracilis, Cynoglossus macrolepidotus, Ctenotrypauchen chinensis, Collichthys niveatus, Ophichthus apicalis and Erisphex potti were collected monthly in 2009 using trammel nets (the size of smaller mesh net was 1.5 m × 15 m × 4 panels with mesh sizes of 2.5, 3.4, 4.3 and 5.8 cm; the size of larger-mesh net was 2.4 m × 30 m × 4 panels with mesh sizes of 5.0, 6.0, 7.0 and 8.0 cm; soaking overnight). Lophiogobius ocellicauda were collected December in 2020 using shrimp trawl nets (mesh size 2.0 cm). The precision of measurement for the fish specimens is 0.1 cm total length and 0.1 g total weight. The estimated ranges of the parameters a and b for the seven fish species were from 0.0001 to 0.0289 and 2.718 to 3.541, respectively. Two new maximum total length were recorded for Ctenotrypauchen chinensis and Ophichthus apicalis.     

Projecting future grassland productivity to assess the sustainability of potential biofuel feedstock areas in the Greater Platte River Basin

This study projects future (e.g., 2050 and 2099) grassland productivities in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB) using ecosystem performance (EP, a surrogate for measuring ecosystem productivity) models and future climate projections. The EP models developed from a previous study were based on the satellite vegetation index, site geophysical and biophysical features, and weather and climate drivers. The future climate data used in this study were derived from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model 3.0 ‘SRES A1B’ (a ‘middle’ emissions path). The main objective of this study is to assess the future sustainability of the potential biofuel feedstock areas identified in a previous study. Results show that the potential biofuel feedstock areas (the more mesic eastern part of the GPRB) will remain productive (i.e., aboveground grassland biomass productivity >2750 kg ha^?1 year^?1) with a slight increasing trend in the future. The spatially averaged EPs for these areas are 3519, 3432, 3557, 3605, 3752, and 3583 kg ha^?1 year^?1 for current site potential (2000–2008 average), 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099, respectively. Therefore, the identified potential biofuel feedstock areas will likely continue to be sustainable for future biofuel development. On the other hand, grasslands identified as having no biofuel potential in the drier western part of the GPRB would be expected to stay unproductive in the future (spatially averaged EPs are 1822, 1691, 1896, 2306, 1994, and 2169 kg ha^?1 year^?1 for site potential, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099). These areas should continue to be unsuitable for biofuel feedstock development in the future. These future grassland productivity estimation maps can help land managers to understand and adapt to the expected changes in future EP in the GPRB and to assess the future sustainability and feasibility of potential biofuel feedstock areas.     

Biodiversity,dynamics, and impact of chakras on the Ecuadorian Amazon

Aims Deforestation and biodiversity loss are two alarming, closely related problems, and the main factors triggering changes in land use. Indigenous agricultural practices in the western Amazon Basin are known as chakras, and their structure and dynamics are seemingly optimal for forest management. However, the variability in tree species and the degree of forest recovery after abandonment is poorly documented in this agroforestry system (AFS). The goals of this study were: (i) to investigate whether the different AFSs (chakras) preserve similar levels of forest diversity, (ii) to determine the effect of transformation of mature forests (MF) to chakras, in particular, forest alpha and beta diversity levels, and (iii) to investigate whether native tree species recovery leads to the original forest structure following chakra abandonment.     

Disentangling plastic and genetic changes in body mass of Siberian jays

Spatial and temporal phenotypic differentiation in mean body size is of commonplace occurrence, but the underlying causes remain often unclear: both genetic differentiation in response to selection (or drift) and environmentally induced plasticity can create similar phenotypic patterns. Studying changes in body mass in Siberian jays (Perisoreus infaustus) over three decades, we discovered that mean body mass declined drastically (ca. 10%) over the first two decades, but increased markedly thereafter back to almost the initial level. Quantitative genetic analyses revealed that although body mass was heritable (h² = 0.46), the pronounced temporal decrease in body mass was mainly a product of phenotypic plasticity. However, a concomitant and statistically significant decrease in predicted breeding values suggests a genetic component to this change. The subsequent increase in mean body mass was indicated to be entirely due to plasticity. Selection on body mass was estimated to be too weak to fully account for the observed genetic decline in body mass, but bias in selection differential estimates due to environmental covariance between body mass and fitness is possible. Hence, the observed body mass changes appear to be driven mainly by phenotypic plasticity. Although we were not able to identify the ecological driver of the observed plastic changes, the results highlight the utility of quantitative genetic approaches in disentangling genetic and phenotypic changes in natural populations.     

Carbon stocks in above‐ground biomass of monoculture plantations,mixed species plantations and environmental restoration plantings in north‐east Australia

Summary The emergence of carbon markets has provided a potential source of funding for reforestation projects. However, there is concern amongst ecologists that these markets will promote the establishment of monoculture plantations rather than more diverse restoration plantings, on the assumption that fast‐growing monocultures are likely to store more carbon than restoration plantings. We examined the validity of this assumption for three predominantly rainforest plantation types established in the moist tropical uplands of north‐east Australia: monoculture plantations of native rainforest conifers (n = 5, mean age 13 years); mixed species plantations of rainforest cabinet timber species, rainforest conifers and eucalypts (n = 5, mean age 13 years); and, environmental restoration plantings comprised mostly of a diverse range of rainforest trees (n = 10, mean age 14 years). We found that restoration plantings stored significantly more carbon in above‐ground biomass than monoculture plantations of native conifers (on average, 106 t vs 62 t carbon per ha); and tended to store more carbon than mixed species timber plantations which were intermediate in value (86 t carbon per ha). Carbon stocks were higher in restoration plantings than in monoculture and mixed species plantations for three reasons. First, and most importantly, restoration plantings were more densely stocked than monoculture and mixed species plantations. Second, there were more large diameter trees in restoration plantings than monoculture plantations. Third, the trees used in restoration plantings had a higher average wood density than the conifers used in monoculture plantations. While, on average, wood density was higher in mixed species plantations than restoration plantings, the much higher stocking rate of restoration plantings meant they stored more carbon than mixed species plantations. We conclude that restoration plantings in the moist tropics of north‐east Australia can accumulate relatively high amounts of carbon within two decades of establishment. Comparison with reference rainforest sites suggests that restoration plantings could maintain their high stocking rates (and therefore high biomass) as they develop in future decades. However, because restoration plantings are currently much more expensive to establish than monoculture plantations, restoration plantings are unlikely to be favoured by carbon markets. Novel reforestation techniques and designs are required if restoration plantings are to both provide habitat for rainforest biota and store carbon in biomass at a cost comparable to monoculture plantations.