Co‐occurrence patterns of trees along macro‐climatic gradients and their potential influence on the present and future distribution of Fagus sylvatica L.

Aim During recent and future climate change, shifts in large‐scale species ranges are expected due to the hypothesized major role of climatic factors in regulating species distributions. The stress‐gradient hypothesis suggests that biotic interactions may act as major constraints on species distributions under more favourable growing conditions, while climatic constraints may dominate under unfavourable conditions. We tested this hypothesis for one focal tree species having three major competitors using broad‐scale environmental data. We evaluated the variation of species co‐occurrence patterns in climate space and estimated the influence of these patterns on the distribution of the focal species for current and projected future climates. Location Europe. Methods We used ICP Forest Level 1 data as well as climatic, topographic and edaphic variables. First, correlations between the relative abundance of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and three major competitor species (Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris and Quercus robur) were analysed in environmental space, and then projected to geographic space. Second, a sensitivity analysis was performed using generalized additive models (GAM) to evaluate where and how much the predicted F. sylvatica distribution varied under current and future climates if potential competitor species were included or excluded. We evaluated if these areas coincide with current species co‐occurrence patterns. Results Correlation analyses supported the stress‐gradient hypothesis: towards favourable growing conditions of F. sylvatica, its abundance was strongly linked to the abundance of its competitors, while this link weakened towards unfavourable growing conditions, with stronger correlations in the south and at low elevations than in the north and at high elevations. The sensitivity analysis showed a potential spatial segregation of species with changing climate and a pronounced shift of zones where co‐occurrence patterns may play a major role. Main conclusions Our results demonstrate the importance of species co‐occurrence patterns for calibrating improved species distribution models for use in projections of climate effects. The correlation approach is able to localize European areas where inclusion of biotic predictors is effective. The climate‐induced spatial segregation of the major tree species could have ecological and economic consequences.     

Models for Trypanosoma evansi (surra), its control and economic impact on small-hold livestock owners in the Philippines

Simple demographic and infectious disease models of buffaloes and other domestic hosts for animal trypanosomosis (surra) caused by Trypanosoma evansi were developed. The animal models contained deterministic and stochastic elements and were linked to simulate the benefit of control regimes for surra in village domestic animal populations in Mindanao, Philippines. The impact of the disease on host fertility and mortality were key factors in determining the economic losses and net-benefit from the control regimes. If using a high (99%) efficacy drug in surra-moderate to high risk areas, then treating all animals twice each year yielded low prevalence in 2 years; targeted treatment of clinically sick animals, constantly monitored (monthly), required 75% fewer treatments but took longer to reach a low prevalence than treating all animals twice each year. At high drug efficacy both of these treatment strategies increased the benefit over untreated animals by 81%. If drug efficacy declined then the benefit obtained from twice yearly treatment of all animals declined rapidly compared with regular monitoring and targeting treatment to clinically sick animals. The current control regimen applied in the Philippines of annual sero-testing for surra and only treating sero-positive animals provided the lowest net-benefit of all the control options simulated and would not be regarded as effective control. The total net-benefit from effective surra control for a typical village in a moderate/high risk area was 7.9 million pesos per annum (US $158,000). The value added to buffaloes, cattle, horses, goats/sheep and pigs as a result of this control was US $88, $84, $151, $7, $114 per animal/year, respectively.     

Individual-based model of spatio-temporal dynamics of mixed forest stands

This research presents the results of constructing and parameterizing an individual-based model of spatiotemporal dynamics of mixed forest stands. The model facilitates computerized experiments with forest stands having different combinations of species and age structures. These forest stands grow on temperate areas where light is the main system-forming factor that shapes and develops forest ecosystems. The model TEMFORM (TEMperate FORests Model) is developed with few equations and parameters, most of which can be estimated using standard forest inventory data. Parameterization of the model used the growth tables of a set of basic forest-forming species in Far East Russia. Simulation results of the development of the natural single- and mixed-species stands and the effects of different types of disturbances on the stand dynamics and compositions are presented.     

Stimulator of interferon genes (STING): A “new chapter” in virus-associated cancer research. Lessons from wild-derived mouse models of innate immunity

Thanks to the numerous studies that have been carried out recently in the field of cytosolic DNA sensing, STING (Stimulator of Interferon Genes) is now recognized as a key mediator of innate immune signaling. A substantial body of evidence derived from in vivo mouse models demonstrates that STING-regulated pathways underlie the pathogenesis of many diseases including infectious diseases and cancers. It has also become evident from these studies that STING is a promising therapeutic target for the treatment of cancer. However, mouse strains commonly used for modelling innate immune response against infections or tumors do not allow investigators to accurately reproduce certain specific characteristics of immune response observed in human cells. In this review, we will discuss recent data demonstrating that the use of wild-derived genetically distinct inbred mice as a model for investigation into the innate immunity signaling networks may provide valuable insight into the STING-regulated pathways specific for human cells. The maximum complexity of STING-mediated mechanisms can probably be seen in case of DNA virus-induced carcinogenesis in which STING may perform unexpected biological activities. Therefore, in another part of this review we will summarize emerging data on the role of STING in human DNA virus-related oncopathologies, with particular attention to HPV-associated cervical cancer, aiming to demonstrate that STING indeed “starts a new chapter” in research on this issue and that wild-derived mouse models of STING-mediated response to infections will probably be helpful in finding out molecular basis for clinical observations.     

Bayesian Quantile Regression for Longitudinal Studies with Nonignorable Missing Data

Summary .  We study quantile regression (QR) for longitudinal measurements with nonignorable intermittent missing data and dropout. Compared to conventional mean regression, quantile regression can characterize the entire conditional distribution of the outcome variable, and is more robust to outliers and misspecification of the error distribution. We account for the within-subject correlation by introducing a   ℓ₂   penalty in the usual QR check function to shrink the subject-specific intercepts and slopes toward the common population values. The informative missing data are assumed to be related to the longitudinal outcome process through the shared latent random effects. We assess the performance of the proposed method using simulation studies, and illustrate it with data from a pediatric AIDS clinical trial.