Validation of discrete time-to-event prediction models in the presence of competing risks

Clinical prediction models play a key role in risk stratification, therapy assignment and many other fields of medical decision making. Before they can enter clinical practice, their usefulness has to be demonstrated using systematic validation. Methods to assess their predictive performance have been proposed for continuous, binary, and time-to-event outcomes, but the literature on validation methods for discrete time-to-event models with competing risks is sparse. The present paper tries to fill this gap and proposes new methodology to quantify discrimination, calibration, and prediction error (PE) for discrete time-to-event outcomes in the presence of competing risks. In our case study, the goal was to predict the risk of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) attributed to Pseudomonas aeruginosa in intensive care units (ICUs). Competing events are extubation, death, and VAP due to other bacteria. The aim of this application is to validate complex prediction models developed in previous work on more recently available validation data.     

Field studies of seahorse population density,structure and habitat use in a semi-closed north-eastern Mediterranean marine area (Stratoni,North Aegean Sea)

The present study was carried out in the marine area of Stratoni, Greece, where two seahorse species are present (Hippocampus hippocampus and Hippocampus guttulatus). Two surveys were conducted (September 2016 and May 2019) to gather information regarding seahorse species' abundance, distribution and habitat characteristics. Four different seahorse natural and artificial habitat types were identified. The results revealed that the presence of H. hippocampus was relatively high, especially at sites with artificial structures, whereas the presence of H. guttulatus was rare. Data collected can provide baseline information for future population assessments.     

Canopy structure of tropical and sub-tropical rain forests in relation to conifer dominance analysed with a portable LIDAR system

Background and Aims

Globally, conifer dominance is restricted to nutient-poor habitats in colder, drier or waterlogged environments, probably due to competition with angiosperms. Analysis of canopy structure is important for understanding the mechanism of plant coexistence in relation to competition for light. Most conifers are shade intolerant, and often have narrow, deep, conical crowns. In this study it is predicted that conifer-admixed forests have less distinct upper canopies and more undulating canopy surfaces than angiosperm-dominated forests.

Methods

By using a ground-based, portable light detection and ranging (LIDAR) system, canopy structure was quantified for old-growth evergreen rainforests with varying dominance of conifers along altitudinal gradients (200–3100 m a.s.l.) on tropical and sub-tropical mountains (Mount Kinabalu, Malaysian Borneo and Yakushima Island, Japan) that have different conifer floras.

Key Results

Conifers dominated at higher elevations on both mountains (Podocarpaceae and Araucariaceae on Kinabalu and Cupressaceae and Pinaceae on Yakushima), but conifer dominance also varied with soil/substrate conditions on Kinabalu. Conifer dominance was associated with the existence of large-diameter conifers. Forests with higher conifer dominance showed a canopy height profile (CHP) more skewed towards the understorey on both Kinabalu and Yakushima. In contrast, angiosperm-dominated forests had a CHP skewed towards upper canopy, except for lowland dipterocarp forests and a sub-alpine scrub dominated by small-leaved Leptospermum recurvum (Myrtaceae) on Kinabalu. Forests with a less dense upper canopy had more undulating outer canopy surfaces. Mixed conifer–angiosperm forests on Yakushima and dipterocarp forests on Kinabalu showed similar canopy structures.

Conclusions

The results generally supported the prediction, suggesting that lower growth of angiosperm trees (except L. recurvum on Kinabalu) in cold and nutrient-poor environments results in a sparser upper canopy, which allows shade-intolerant conifers to co-occur with angiosperm trees either as emergents or as codominants in the open canopy.     

Seasonal acclimatization to the hot summer over 60 days in the Republic of Korea suppresses sweating sensitivity during passive heating

The main objective of this study was to determine the central mechanisms involved in suppression of thermal sweating after seasonal acclimatization (SA) during passive heating (immersing the legs in 43 °C hot water for 30 min). Testing was performed in July (before-SA) and August (after-SA) [25.2±2.2 °C, 73.9±10.3% relative humidity (RH), Cheonan (Chungnam,126° 52′N, 33.38′E), in the Republic of Korea. All experiments were carried out in an automated climatic chamber (25.0±0.5 °C and RH 60.0±3.00%). Twelve healthy men (height, 174.6±5.40 cm; weight, 65.4±5.71 kg; age, 22.7±2.90 yr) participated. The local sweat onset time was delayed in the after-SA compared to that in the before-SA (p<0.001). The local sweat rate and whole body sweat loss volume decreased in the after-SA compared to those in the before-SA (p<0.001). In addition, evaporative loss volume decreased significantly in the after-SA compared to that in the before-SA [chest, upper-back, thigh and forearm (p<0.001)]. Changes in tympanic temperature and mean body temperature were significantly lower (p<0.05) and the basal metabolic rate decreased significantly in the after-SA compared to those in the before-SA (p<0.001). These results suggest that maintenance of a lower body temperature and basal metabolic rate can occur and blunt the central sudomotor mechanisms following seasonal acclimatization, which suppresses sweating sensitivity.     

Patterns of morphological and genetic diversity of Valeriana jatamansi Jones in different habitats and altitudinal range of West Himalaya,India

Importance to know and understand diversity of Himalayan plants is increasingly recognized considering the fact that various natural and anthropogenic pressures might bring about serious influences to morphological and genetic diversity of the vegetation in the region. In this context, Valeriana jatamansi was investigated in detail, taking into account its importance in various Ayurvedic and modern medicines. Randomly selected mature plants from twenty five different populations (located between 1215 m to 2775 m asl) of V. jatamansi were analysed for their morphological attributes. Further, ISSR markers were used to detect genetic variation among 151 plants of selected 25 populations. Use of 20 primers yielded 125 reproducible polymorphic loci which were used to estimate different parameters of genetic diversity. These parameters were in turn applied to develop relationships with habitat types and altitude range. Significant variation (p < 0.05) in above ground dry weight (AGDW) and below ground dry weight (BGDW) across the populations was observed. Nei's genetic diversity index (He) ranged from 0.25 to 0.37 across the populations, with a mean of 0.31. Genetic diversity exhibited a decreasing trend with increasing altitude, and maximum diversity (He = 0.325) was observed in the range of 1201–1500 m asl. Among the different habitat conditions, highest genetic diversity (He = 0.334; Pp = 84.38) was observed in grassland habitats while minimum in mixed forest habitats (He = 0.285; Pp = 72.433). The genetic diversity (He) had significant negative relationships with AGDW, BGDW and rhizome diameter (Pearson r = −0.359, −0.424 and −0.317, respectively; p < 0.05). The genetic characterization of V. jatamansi from the western Himalaya by this study suggests influences of habitat types and the altitudinal range upon genetic diversity, and based on these proposals for conservation strategies in favour of the species are made.     

Mutational analysis of TYR gene and its structural consequences in OCA1A

Oculocutaneous albinism type 1A (OCA1A) is the most severe form of albinism characterized by a complete lack of melanin production throughout life and is caused by mutations in the TYR gene. TYR gene codes tyrosinase protein to its relation with melanin formation by knowing the function of these SNPs. Based on the computational approaches, we have analyzed the genetic variations that could change the functional behaviour by altering the structural arrangement in TYR protein which is responsible for OCA1A. Consequences of mutation on TYR structure were observed by analyzing the flexibility behaviour of native and mutant tyrosinase protein. Mutations T373K, N371Y, M370T and P313R were suggested as high deleterious effect on TYR protein and it is responsible for OCA1A which were also endorsed with previous in vivo experimental studies. Based on the quantitative assessment and flexibility analysis of OCA1A variants, T373K showed the most deleterious effect. Our analysis determines that certain mutations can affect the dynamic properties of protein and can lead to disease conditions. This study provides a significant insight into the underlying molecular mechanism involved in albinism associated with OCA1A.     

Host genetic risk factors for community-acquired pneumonia

This study was conducted to establish the contribution of genetic host factors in the susceptibility to community acquired pneumonia (CAP) in the Russian population. Patients with CAP (n = 334), volunteers without a previous history of CAP, constantly exposed to infectious agents, control A group (n = 141) and a second control group B consisted of healthy persons (n = 314) were included in the study. All subjects were genotyped for 13 polymorphic variants in the genes of xenobiotics detoxification CYP1A1 (rs2606345, rs4646903, and rs1048943), GSTM1 (Ins/del), GSTT1 (Ins/del), ABCB1 rs1045642); immune and inflammation response IL-6 (rs1800795), TNF-a (rs1800629), MBL2 (rs7096206), CCR5 (rs333), NOS3 (rs1799983), angiotensin-converting enzyme ACE (rs4340), and occlusive vascular disease/hyperhomocysteinemia MTHFR (rs1801133). Seven polymorphic variants in genes CYP1A1, GSTM1, ABCB1, NOS3, IL6, CCR5 and ACE were associated with CAP. For two genes CYP1A1 and GSTM1 associations remained significant after correction for multiple comparisons. Multiple analysis by the number of all risk genotypes showed a highly significant association with CAP (P = 2.4 × 10^− 7, OR = 3.03, 95% CI 1.98–4.64) with the threshold for three risk genotypes. Using the ROC-analysis, the AUC value for multi-locus model was estimated as 68.38.     

Locating QTLs controlling several adult root traits in an elite Chinese hybrid rice

This study aimed to elucidate the genetics of the adult root system in elite Chinese hybrid rice. Several adult root traits in a recombinant inbred line (RIL) population of Xieyou 9308 and two backcross F₁ (BCF₁) populations derived from the RILs were phenotyped under hydroponic culture at heading stage for quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping and other statistical analysis. There a total of eight QTLs detected for the root traits. Among of them, a pleiotropic QTL was repeatedly flanked by RM180 and RM5436 on the short arm of chromosome 7 for multiple traits across RILs and its BCF₁ populations, accounting for 6.88% to 25.26% of the phenotypic variances. Only additive/dominant QTLs were detected for the root traits. These results can serve as a foundation for facilitating future cloning and molecular breeding.     

Ligand binding and dynamics of the monomeric epidermal growth factor receptor ectodomain

The ectodomain of the human epidermal growth factor receptor (hEGFR) controls input to several cell signalling networks via binding with extracellular growth factors. To gain insight into the dynamics and ligand binding of the ectodomain, the hEGFR monomer was subjected to molecular dynamics simulation. The monomer was found to be substantially more flexible than the ectodomain dimer studied previously. Simulations where the endogeneous ligand EGF binds to either Subdomain I or Subdomain III, or where hEGFR is unbound, show significant differences in dynamics. The molecular mechanics Poisson–Boltzmann surface area method has been used to derive relative free energies of ligand binding, and we find that the ligand is capable of binding either subdomain with a slight preference for III. Alanine‐scanning calculations for the effect of selected ligand mutants on binding reproduce the trends of affinity measurements. Taken together, these results emphasize the possible role of the ectodomain monomer in the initial step of ligand binding, and add details to the static picture obtained from crystal structures. Proteins 2013; 81:1931–1943. © 2013 The Authors. Proteins published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.