Assessing the response of area burned to changing climate in western boreal North America using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach

Fire is a common disturbance in the North American boreal forest that influences ecosystem structure and function. The temporal and spatial dynamics of fire are likely to be altered as climate continues to change. In this study, we ask the question: how will area burned in boreal North America by wildfire respond to future changes in climate? To evaluate this question, we developed temporally and spatially explicit relationships between air temperature and fuel moisture codes derived from the Canadian Fire Weather Index System to estimate annual area burned at 2.5° (latitude × longitude) resolution using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) approach across Alaska and Canada. Burned area was substantially more predictable in the western portion of boreal North America than in eastern Canada. Burned area was also not very predictable in areas of substantial topographic relief and in areas along the transition between boreal forest and tundra. At the scale of Alaska and western Canada, the empirical fire models explain on the order of 82% of the variation in annual area burned for the period 1960–2002. July temperature was the most frequently occurring predictor across all models, but the fuel moisture codes for the months June through August (as a group) entered the models as the most important predictors of annual area burned. To predict changes in the temporal and spatial dynamics of fire under future climate, the empirical fire models used output from the Canadian Climate Center CGCM2 global climate model to predict annual area burned through the year 2100 across Alaska and western Canada. Relative to 1991–2000, the results suggest that average area burned per decade will double by 2041–2050 and will increase on the order of 3.5–5.5 times by the last decade of the 21st century. To improve the ability to better predict wildfire across Alaska and Canada, future research should focus on incorporating additional effects of long‐term and successional vegetation changes on area burned to account more fully for interactions among fire, climate, and vegetation dynamics.     

Water availability controls microbial temperature responses in frozen soil CO2 production

Soil processes in high-latitude regions during winter are important contributors to global carbon circulation, but our understanding of the mechanisms controlling these processes is poor and observed temperature response coefficients of CO₂ production in frozen soils deviate markedly from thermodynamically predicted responses (sometimes by several orders of magnitude). We investigated the temperature response of CO₂ production in 23 unfrozen and frozen surface soil samples from various types of boreal forests and peatland ecosystems and also measured changes in water content in them after freezing. We demonstrate that deviations in temperature responses at subzero temperatures primarily emanates from water deficiency caused by freezing of the soil water, and that the amount of unfrozen water is mainly determined by the quality of the soil organic matter, which is linked to the vegetation cover. Factoring out the contribution of water limitation to the CO₂ temperature responses yields response coefficients that agree well with expectations based on thermodynamic theory concerning biochemical temperature responses. This partitioning between a pure temperature response and the effect of water availability on the response of soil CO₂ production at low temperatures is crucial for a thorough understanding of low-temperature soil processes and for accurate predictions of C-balances in northern terrestrial ecosystems.     

Effects of post-fire conditions on soil respiration in boreal forests with special reference to Northeast China forests

Forest fires frequently occur in boreal forests,and their effects on forest ecosystems are often significant in terms of carbon flux related to climate changes.Soil respiration is the second largest carbon flux in boreal forests and the change in soil respiration is not negligible.Environmental factors controlling the soil respiration,for example,soil temperature,are altered by such fires.The abnormal increase in soil temperature has an important negative effect on soil microbes by reducing their activities or even by killing them directly with strong heat.On the other hand,although vegetation is directly disturbed by fires,the indirect changes in soil respiration are followed by changes in root activities and soil microbes.However,there is very limited information on soil respiration in the forests of Northeast China.This review,by combining what is known about fire influence on soil respiration in boreal forests from previous studies of post-fire effects on soil conditions,soil microbes,and forest regeneration,presents possible scenarios of the impact of anticipated post-fire changes in forest soil respiration in Northeast China.     

Impacts of climate on prey abundance account for fluctuations in a population of a northern wader at the southern edge of its range

Understanding the mechanisms by which climate change will affect animal populations is vital for adaptive management. Many studies have described changes in the timing of biological events, which can produce phenological mismatch. Direct effects on prey abundance might also be important, but have rarely been studied. We examine the likely importance of variation in prey abundance in driving the demographics of a European golden plover ( Pluvialis apricaria ) population at its southern range margin. Previous studies have correlated plover productivity with the abundance of their adult cranefly (Tipulidae) prey, and modelled the phenology of both plover breeding and cranefly emergence in relation to temperature. Our analyses demonstrate that abundance of adult craneflies is correlated with August temperature in the previous year. Correspondingly, changes in the golden plover population are negatively correlated with August temperature 2 years earlier. Predictions of annual productivity, based on temperature-mediated reductions in prey abundance, closely match observed trends. Modelled variation in annual productivity for a future scenario of increasing August temperatures predicts a significant risk of extinction of the golden plover population over the next 100 years, depending upon the magnitude of warming. Direct effects of climate warming upon cranefly populations may therefore cause northward range contractions of golden plovers, as predicted by climate envelope modelling. Craneflies are an important food source for many northern and upland birds, and our results are likely to have wide relevance to these other species. Research into the potential for habitat management to improve the resilience of cranefly populations to high temperature should be an urgent priority.     

林火干扰对北方针叶林林下植被的影响

林下植被在北方针叶林植被群落中的物种多样性最高, 且具有较高的生物量周转率和地上部分净初级生产力, 对北方针叶林生态系统功能起着重要作用。火干扰是决定北方针叶林林下植被结构与功能的一个重要景观过程。该文综述了火干扰是如何通过与地形、火前林冠组成的交互作用而影响环境资源和林下植被的。最近的研究表明: 林下植被能够影响火后树木更新苗的定植、重建速率及森林演替轨迹; 林下植被还会通过影响元素的生物地球化学过程(凋落物降解和养分循环)影响林下环境资源的数量与异质性。因此, 研究火后初期北方针叶林林下植被的动态变化, 对于物种多样性保护和森林管理具有重要意义。     

Keep wetlands wet: the myth of sustainable development of tropical peatlands – implications for policies and management

Pristine tropical peat swamp forests (PSFs) represent a unique wetland ecosystem of distinctive hydrology which support unique biodiversity and globally significant stores of soil carbon. Yet in Indonesia and Malaysia, home to 56% of the world's tropical peatland, they are subject to considerable developmental pressures, including widespread drainage to support agricultural needs. In this article, we review the ecology behind the functioning and ecosystem services provided by PSFs, with a particular focus on hydrological processes as well as the role of the forest itself in maintaining those services. Drawing on this, we review the suitability of current policy frameworks and consider the efficacy of their implementation. We suggest that policies in Malaysia and Indonesia are often based around the narrative of oil palm and other major monocrops as drivers of prosperity and development. However, we also argue that this narrative is also being supported by a priori claims concerning the possibility of sustainability of peat swamp exploitation via drainage‐based agriculture through the adherence to best management practices. We discuss how this limits their efficacy, uptake and the political will towards enforcement. Further, we consider how both narratives (prosperity and sustainability) clearly exclude important considerations concerning the ecosystem value of tropical PSFs which are dependent on their unimpacted hydrology. Current research clearly shows that the actual debate should be focused not on how to develop drainage‐based plantations sustainably, but on whether the sustainable conversion to drainage‐based systems is possible at all.     

Climate change alters the reproductive phenology and investment of a lacustrine fish,the three‐spine stickleback

High‐latitude lakes are particularly sensitive to the effects of global climate change, demonstrating earlier ice breakup, longer ice‐free seasons, and increased water temperatures. Such physical changes have implications for diverse life‐history traits in taxa across entire lake food webs. Here, we use a five‐decade time series from an Alaskan lake to explore effects of climate change on growth and reproduction of a widely distributed lacustrine fish, the three‐spine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus). We used multivariate autoregressive state‐space (MARSS) models to describe trends in the mean length for multiple size classes and to explore the influence of physical (date of ice breakup, surface water temperature) and biological (density of con‐ and heterospecifics) factors. As predicted, mean size of age 1 and older fish at the end of the growing season increased across years with earlier ice breakup and warmer temperatures. In contrast, mean size of age 0 fish decreased over time. Overall, lower fish density and warmer water temperatures were associated with larger size for all cohorts. Earlier ice breakup was associated with larger size for age 1 and older fish but, paradoxically, with smaller size of age 0 fish. To explore this latter result, we used mixing models on age 0 size distributions, which revealed an additional cohort in years with early ice breakup, lowering the mean size of age 0 fish. Moreover, early ice breakup was associated with earlier breeding, evidenced by earlier capture of age 0 fish. Our results suggest that early ice breakup altered both timing and frequency of breeding; three‐spine stickleback spawned earlier and more often in response to earlier ice breakup date. While previous studies have shown the influence of changing conditions in northern lakes on breeding timing and growth, this is the first to document increased breeding frequency, highlighting another pathway by which climate change can alter the ecology of northern lakes.     

Higher climate warming sensitivity of Siberian larch in small than large forest islands in the fragmented Mongolian forest steppe

Forest fragmentation has been found to affect biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in multiple ways. We asked whether forest size and isolation in fragmented woodlands influences the climate warming sensitivity of tree growth in the southern boreal forest of the Mongolian Larix sibirica forest steppe, a naturally fragmented woodland embedded in grassland, which is highly affected by warming, drought, and increasing anthropogenic forest destruction in recent time. We examined the influence of stand size and stand isolation on the growth performance of larch in forests of four different size classes located in a woodland‐dominated forest‐steppe area and small forest patches in a grassland‐dominated area. We found increasing climate sensitivity and decreasing first‐order autocorrelation of annual stemwood increment with decreasing stand size. Stemwood increment increased with previous year's June and August precipitation in the three smallest forest size classes, but not in the largest forests. In the grassland‐dominated area, the tree growth dependence on summer rainfall was highest. Missing ring frequency has strongly increased since the 1970s in small, but not in large forests. In the grassland‐dominated area, the increase was much greater than in the forest‐dominated landscape. Forest regeneration decreased with decreasing stand size and was scarce or absent in the smallest forests. Our results suggest that the larch trees in small and isolated forest patches are far more susceptible to climate warming than in large continuous forests pointing to a grim future for the forests in this strongly warming region of the boreal forest that is also under high land use pressure.     

Warming drives a front of white spruce establishment near western treeline,Alaska

Regional warming has led to increased productivity near the boreal forest margin in Alaska. To date, the effects of warming on seedling recruitment have received little attention, in spite of forecasted forest expansion. Here, we used stand structure and environmental data from 95 white spruce (Picea glauca) plots sampled across a longitudinal gradient in southwest Alaska to explore factors influencing spruce establishment and recruitment near western treeline. We used total counts of live seedlings, saplings, and trees, representing five life stages, to evaluate whether geospatial, climate, and measured plot covariates predicted abundance, using current abundance distributions as a surrogate for climate conditions in the past. We used generalized linear models to test the null hypothesis that conditions favorable for recruitment were similar along the environmental gradient represented by longitude, by exploring relationships between per‐plot counts of each life stage and the covariates hypothesized to affect abundance. We also examined the relationship between growing degree days (GDD) and seedling establishment over a period of three decades using tree‐ring chronologies obtained from cores taken at a subset of our sites (n = 30). Our results indicated that seedling, sapling, and tree abundance were positively correlated with temperature across the study area. The response to longitude was mixed, with earlier life stages (seedlings, saplings) most abundant at the western end of the gradient, and later life stages (trees) most abundant to the east. The differential relationship between longitude and life‐stage abundance suggests a moving front of white spruce establishment through time, driven by changes in environmental conditions near the species’ western range limit. Likewise, we found a positive relationship between periods of seedling establishment and GDD, suggesting that longer summers and/or greater heat accumulation might enhance establishment, consistent with the positive relationship we found between life‐stage abundance and temperature.