The devil is in the detail: Nonadditive and context‐dependent plant population responses to increasing temperature and precipitation

In climate change ecology, simplistic research approaches may yield unrealistically simplistic answers to often more complicated problems. In particular, the complexity of vegetation responses to global climate change begs a better understanding of the impacts of concomitant changes in several climatic drivers, how these impacts vary across different climatic contexts, and of the demographic processes underlying population changes. Using a replicated, factorial, whole‐community transplant experiment, we investigated regional variation in demographic responses of plant populations to increased temperature and/or precipitation. Across four perennial forb species and 12 sites, we found strong responses to both temperature and precipitation change. Changes in population growth rates were mainly due to changes in survival and clonality. In three of the four study species, the combined increase in temperature and precipitation reflected nonadditive, antagonistic interactions of the single climatic changes for population growth rate and survival, while the interactions were additive and synergistic for clonality. This disparity affects the persistence of genotypes, but also suggests that the mechanisms behind the responses of the vital rates differ. In addition, survival effects varied systematically with climatic context, with wetter and warmer + wetter transplants showing less positive or more negative responses at warmer sites. The detailed demographic approach yields important mechanistic insights into how concomitant changes in temperature and precipitation affect plants, which makes our results generalizable beyond the four study species. Our comprehensive study design illustrates the power of replicated field experiments in disentangling the complex relationships and patterns that govern climate change impacts across real‐world species and landscapes.     

Global stability of an SIR epidemic model with time delays

An SIR disease transmission model is formulated under the assumption that the force of infection at the present time depends on the number of infectives at the past. It is shown that a disease free equilibrium point is globally stable if no endemic equilibrium point exists. Further the endemic point (if it exists) is globally stable with respect to the whole state space except the neighborhood of the disease free state.Research partly supported by the Ministry of Education, Science and Culture, Japan, Grant 05640256     

Evolution of the Mitochondrial Cytochrome Oxidase II Gene in Collembola

The sequence of the mitochondrial COII gene has been widely used to estimate phylogenetic relationships at different taxomonic levels across insects. We investigated the molecular evolution of the COII gene and its usefulness for reconstructing phylogenetic relationships within and among four collembolan families. The collembolan COII gene showed the lowest A + T content of all insects so far examined, confirming that the well-known A + T bias in insect mitochondrial genes tends to increase from the basal to apical orders. Fifty-seven percent of all nucleotide positions were variable and most of the third codon positions appeared free to vary. Values of genetic distance between congeneric species and between families were remarkably high; in some cases the latter were higher than divergence values between other orders of insects. The remarkably high divergence levels observed here provide evidence that collembolan taxa are quite old; divergence levels among collembolan families equaled or exceeded divergences among pterygote insect orders. Once the saturated third-codon positions (which violated stationarity of base frequencies) were removed, the COII sequences contained phylogenetic information, but the extent of that information was overestimated by parsimony methods relative to likelihood methods. In the phylogenetic analysis, consistent statistical support was obtained for the monophyly of all four genera examined, but relationships among genera/families were not well supported. Within the genus Orchesella, relationships were well resolved and agreed with allozyme data. Within the genus Isotomurus, although three pairs of populations were consistently identified, these appeared to have arisen in a burst of evolution from an earlier ancestor. Isotomurus italicus always appeared as basal and I. palustris appeared to harbor a cryptic species, corroborating allozyme data. Received: 12 January 1996 / Accepted: 10 August 1996     

Suitability evaluation of some specific crops in Souma area (Iran), using Cervatana and Almagra models

In the present study Cervatana and Almagra models from decision support system, MicroLEIS DSS, were applied to segregation of arable land surfaces from the marginal ones and suitability evaluation of wheat (Triticum aestivum), maize (Zea mays) and alfalfa (Medicago sativa) in Souma area with approximately 4100 ha extension in West Azarbaijan. Obtained results from both models are presented and discussed in this research work. Soil morphological and analytical data were collected from 35 soil profiles, representative of the study area and stored in SDBm plus database. The control or vertical section of soil for applying and running the models for annual selected crops, was calculated by soil layer generator 0.0–50 cm in depth, or between the surface and the limit of useful depth when the latter is between 0.0 and 50 cm. According to results, 80.49% of the total area was good capable for agricultural uses and 19.51% must be reforested and not dedicated to agriculture. The lands with good capability for agricultural uses is classified as highly suitable area (S2) for wheat, maize and alfalfa, but results in 822 ha for maize and in 126 ha for alfalfa refers to an excellent suitable (S1) and moderately suitable (S3) classes respectively. The most important limitation factors are soil texture and carbonate alone or together and maize — wheat — alfalfa can be selected as the best crop rotation. A simple map subsystem (ArcView GIS) was used for basic data and models result demonstration on a map.     

A simulation approach for power calculation in large cohort studies based on multistate models

Realistic power calculations for large cohort studies and nested case control studies are essential for successfully answering important and complex research questions in epidemiology and clinical medicine. For this, we provide a methodical framework for general realistic power calculations via simulations that we put into practice by means of an R‐based template. We consider staggered recruitment and individual hazard rates, competing risks, interaction effects, and the misclassification of covariates. The study cohort is assembled with respect to given age‐, gender‐, and community distributions. Nested case‐control analyses with a varying number of controls enable comparisons of power with a full cohort analysis. Time‐to‐event generation under competing risks, including delayed study‐entry times, is realized on the basis of a six‐state Markov model. Incidence rates, prevalence of risk factors and prefixed hazard ratios allow for the assignment of age‐dependent transition rates given in the form of Cox models. These provide the basis for a central simulation‐algorithm, which is used for the generation of sample paths of the underlying time‐inhomogeneous Markov processes. With the inclusion of frailty terms into the Cox models the Markov property is specifically biased. An “individual Markov process given frailty” creates some unobserved heterogeneity between individuals. Different left‐truncation‐ and right‐censoring patterns call for the use of Cox models for data analysis. p‐values are recorded over repeated simulation runs to allow for the desired power calculations. For illustration, we consider scenarios with a “testing” character as well as realistic scenarios. This enables the validation of a correct implementation of theoretical concepts and concrete sample size recommendations against an actual epidemiological background, here given with possible substudy designs within the German National Cohort.     

Shapes and functions of species–area curves (II): a review of new models and parameterizations

This paper has extended and updated my earlier list and analysis of candidate models used in theoretical modelling and empirical examination of species–area relationships (SARs). I have also reviewed trivariate models that can be applied to include a second independent variable (in addition to area) and discussed extensively the justifications for fitting curves to SARs and the choice of model. There is also a summary of the characteristics of several new candidate models, especially extended power models, logarithmic models and parameterizations of the negative-exponential family and the logistic family. I have, moreover, examined the characteristics and shapes of trivariate linear, logarithmic and power models, including combination variables and interaction terms. The choice of models according to best fit may conflict with problems of non-normality or heteroscedasticity. The need to compare parameter estimates between data sets should also affect model choice. With few data points and large scatter, models with few parameters are often preferable. With narrow-scale windows, even inflexible models such as the power model and the logarithmic model may produce good fits, whereas with wider-scale windows where inflexible models do not fit well, more flexible models such as the second persistence (P2) model and the cumulative Weibull distribution may be preferable. When extrapolations and expected shapes are important, one should consider models with expected shapes, e.g. the power model for sample area curves and the P2 model for isolate curves. The choice of trivariate models poses special challenges, which one can more effectively evaluate by inspecting graphical plots.     

Model for external influences on cellular signal transduction pathways including cytosolic calcium oscillations

Experiments on the effects of extremely-low-frequency (ELF) electric and magnetic fields on cells of the immune system, T-lymphocytes in particular, suggest that the external field interacts with the cell at the level of intracellular signal transduction pathways. These are directly connected with changes in the calcium-signaling processes of the cell. Based on these findings, a theoretical model for receptor-controlled cytosolic calcium oscillations and for external influences on the signal transduction pathway is presented. We discuss the possibility that the external field acts on the kinetics of the signal transduction between the activated receptors at the cell membrane and the G-proteins. It is shown that, depending on the specific combination of cell internal biochemical and external physical parameters, entirely different responses of the cell can occur. We compare the effects of a coherent (periodic) modulation and of incoherent perturbations (noise). The model and the calculations are based on the theory of self-sustained, nonlinear oscillators. It is argued that these systems form an ideal basis for information-encoding processes in biological systems. © 1995 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

Patterns of intra- and interspecific association in leaf-mining insects on three oak host species

Abstract. 1. We determined mortality and distributional patterns of leaf miners on three oak host species (Quercus falcata, Q.nigra and Q.hemisphaerica) in northern Florida, U.S.A.
2. Patterns of intra- and interspecific occurrence within leaves, and mortality of five most abundant leaf miner species were analysed as a test of competition.
3. Miners co-occurred on leaves more often that expected by chance (P<0.05) in six of ten possible species combinations and log-linear model analysis showed no negative higher-order interactions.
4. All five miner species had highly clumped distributions between leaves (P<0.01).
5. Leaf miner survival was less than expected for four of five species when co-occurring on leaves with conspecifics than when mining with heterospecifics or alone (P<0.05).
6. We conclude that interspecific competition is unapparent within this leaf miner guild and that intraspecific competition occurs in four of the five major leaf miner species. We discuss leaf miner selection of common leaves, perhaps based on chemical/physical leaf characters, as a cause of intra- and interspecific aggregation.