Decadal change in wetland–woodland boundaries during the late 20th century reflects climatic trends

Wetlands are important and restricted habitats for dependent biota and play vital roles in landscape function, hydrology and carbon sequestration. They are also likely to be one of the most sensitive components of the terrestrial biosphere to global climate change. An understanding of relationships between wetland persistence and climate is imperative for predicting, mitigating and adapting to the impacts of future climate change on wetland extent and function. We investigated whether mire wetlands had contracted, expanded or remained stable during 1960–2000. We chose a study area encompassing a regional climatic gradient in southeastern Australia, specifically to avoid confounding effects of water extraction on wetland hydrology and extent. We first characterized trends in climate by examining data from local weather stations, which showed a slight increase in precipitation and marked decline in pan evaporation over the relevant period. Remote sensing of vegetation boundaries showed a marked lateral expansion of mires during 1961–1998, and a corresponding contraction of woodland. The spatial patterns in vegetation change were consistent with the regional climatic gradient and showed a weaker co‐relationship to fire history. Resource exploitation, wildland fires and autogenic mire development failed to explain the observed expansion of mire vegetation in the absence of climate change. We therefore conclude that the extent of mire wetlands is likely to be sensitive to variation in climatic moisture over decadal time scales. Late 20th‐century trends in climatic moisture may be related primarily to reduced irradiance and/or reduced wind speeds. In the 21st century, however, net climatic moisture in this region is projected to decline. As mires are apparently sensitive to hydrological change, we anticipate lateral contraction of mire boundaries in coming decades as projected climatic drying eventuates. This raises concerns about the future hydrological functions, carbon storage capacity and unique biodiversity of these important ecosystems.     

Climate change induced hybridization in flying squirrels

There is now unequivocal evidence for global climate change; however, its potential impacts on evolutionary processes remain unclear. Many species have responded to contemporary climate change through shifts in their geographic range. This could lead to increased sympatry between recently diverged species; likely increasing the potential for hybridization. Recently, following a series of warm winters, southern flying squirrels ( Glaucomys volans ) in Ontario, Canada rapidly expanded their northern range limit resulting in increased sympatry with the closely related northern flying squirrel ( Glaucomys sabrinus ). This provided the opportunity to test the prediction that contemporary climate change can act as a catalyst creating conditions for the formation of hybrid zones. Following extensive sampling and molecular analyses (nuclear and mitochondrial DNA), we identified the occurrence of hybridization between sympatric G. sabrinus and G. volans . There was evidence of backcrossing but not of extensive introgession, consistent with the hypothesis of recent rather than historic hybridization. To our knowledge, this is the first report of hybrid zone formation following a range expansion induced by contemporary climate change. This is also the first report of hybridization between North American flying squirrel species.     

Indirect effects of soil moisture reverse soil C sequestration responses of a spring wheat agroecosystem to elevated CO2

Increased plant productivity under elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations might increase soil carbon (C) inputs and storage, which would constitute an important negative feedback on the ongoing atmospheric CO₂ rise. However, elevated CO₂ often also leads to increased soil moisture, which could accelerate the decomposition of soil organic matter, thus counteracting the positive effects via C cycling. We investigated soil C sequestration responses to 5 years of elevated CO₂ treatment in a temperate spring wheat agroecosystem. The application of ¹³C‐depleted CO₂ to the elevated CO₂ plots enabled us to partition soil C into recently fixed C (C_new) and pre‐experimental C (C_old) by ¹³C/¹²C mass balance. Gross C inputs to soils associated with C_new accumulation and the decomposition of C_old were then simulated using the Rothamsted C model ‘RothC.’ We also ran simulations with a modified RothC version that was driven directly by measured soil moisture and temperature data instead of the original water balance equation that required potential evaporation and precipitation as input. The model accurately reproduced the measured C_new in bulk soil and microbial biomass C. Assuming equal soil moisture in both ambient and elevated CO₂, simulation results indicated that elevated CO₂ soils accumulated an extra ～40–50 g C m^?2 relative to ambient CO₂ soils over the 5 year treatment period. However, when accounting for the increased soil moisture under elevated CO₂ that we observed, a faster decomposition of C_old resulted; this extra C loss under elevated CO₂ resulted in a negative net effect on total soil C of ～30 g C m^?2 relative to ambient conditions. The present study therefore demonstrates that positive effects of elevated CO₂ on soil C due to extra soil C inputs can be more than compensated by negative effects of elevated CO₂ via the hydrological cycle.     

Net biome production of the Amazon Basin in the 21st century

Global change includes multiple stressors to natural ecosystems ranging from direct climate and land‐use impacts to indirect degradation processes resulting from fire. Humid tropical forests are vulnerable to projected climate change and possible synergistic interactions with deforestation and fire, which may initiate a positive feedback to rising atmospheric CO₂. Here, we present results from a multifactorial impact analysis that combined an ensemble of climate change models with feedbacks from deforestation and accidental fires to quantify changes in Amazon Basin carbon cycling. Using the LPJmL Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, we modelled spatio‐temporal changes in net biome production (NBP); the difference between carbon fluxes from fire, deforestation, soil respiration and net primary production. By 2050, deforestation and fire (with no CO₂ increase or climate change) resulted in carbon losses of 7.4–20.3 Pg C with the range of uncertainty depending on socio‐economic storyline. During the same time period, interactions between climate and land use either compensated for carbon losses due to wetter climate and CO₂ fertilization or exacerbated carbon losses from drought‐induced forest mortality (?20.1 to +4.3 Pg C). By the end of the 21st century, depending on climate projection and the rate of deforestation (including its interaction with fire), carbon stocks either increased (+12.6 Pg C) or decreased (?40.6 Pg C). The synergistic effect of deforestation and fire with climate change contributed up to 26–36 Pg C of the overall decrease in carbon stocks. Agreement between climate projections (n=9), not accounting for deforestation and fire, in 2050 and 2098 was relatively low for the directional change in basin‐wide NBP (19–37%) and aboveground live biomass (13–24%). The largest uncertainty resulted from climate projections, followed by implementation of ecosystem dynamics and deforestation. Our analysis partitions the drivers of tropical ecosystem change and is relevant for guiding mitigation and adaptation policy related to global change.     

Climate-related, decadal-scale assemblage changes of seagrass-associated fishes in the northern Gulf of Mexico

Global temperatures are rising, and are expected to produce a poleward shift in the distribution of many organisms. We quantified changes in fish assemblages within seagrass meadows of the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) between the 1970s and 2006–2007, and observed changes consistent with this forecast. During 2006–2007 we sampled seagrass meadows using the same gears and methods previously employed by R. J. Livingston in coastal waters of northwest Florida throughout the 1970s. Comparisons between datasets revealed numerous additions to the fish fauna during 2006–2007 that were completely absent in the 1970s, including: Lutjanus synagris (lane snapper), Epinephelus morio (red grouper), Chaetodon ocellatus (spotfin butterflyfish), Mycteroperca sp (grouper, non gag), Centropristis philadelphica (rock sea bass), Fistularia tabacaria (bluespotted cornetfish), Ocyurus chrysurus (yellowtail snapper), Thalassoma bifasciatum (bluehead wrasse), Abudefduf saxatilis (sergeant major), Acanthuridae spp. (surgeonfishes) and Sparisoma viride (stoplight parrotfish). Several other species showed large increases in abundance during the interval between 1979 and 2006, including Mycteroperca microlepis (gag grouper, up ∼200 ×), Lutjanus griseus (gray snapper, up ∼105 ×), and Nicholsina usta (emerald parrotfish, up ∼22 ×). All of these are tropical or subtropical species that now make up a greater percentage of seagrass-associated fish assemblages in the northern GOM than in the past. Additionally, we observed regional increases in air and sea surface temperatures (> 3 °C) during the ∼30 years that separate Livingston's samples and ours that correlate with northern shifts in the distribution of warm-water fishes. Documenting these range shifts is a critical first step in investigating the consequences of global warming for endemic marine communities and fishery production in the northern GOM.     

Projecting the distribution of forests in New England in response to climate change

Aim To project the distribution of three major forest types in the northeastern USA in response to expected climate change. Location The New England region of the United States. Methods We modelled the potential distribution of boreal conifer, northern deciduous hardwood and mixed oak–hickory forests using the process‐based BIOME4 vegetation model parameterized for regional forests under historic and projected future climate conditions. Projections of future climate were derived from three general circulation models forced by three global warming scenarios that span the range of likely anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Results Annual temperature in New England is projected to increase by 2.2–3.3 °C by 2041–70 and by 3.0–5.2 °C by 2071–99 with corresponding increases in precipitation of 4.7–9.5% and 6.4–11.4%, respectively. We project that regional warming will result in the loss of 71–100% of boreal conifer forest in New England by the late 21st century. The range of mixed oak–hickory forests will shift northward by 1.0–2.1 latitudinal degrees (c. 100–200 km) and will increase in area by 149–431% by the end of the 21st century. Northern deciduous hardwoods are expected to decrease in area by 26% and move upslope by 76 m on average. The upslope movement of the northern deciduous hardwoods and the increase in oak–hickory forests coincide with an approximate 556 m upslope retreat of the boreal conifer forest by 2071–99. In our simulations, rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations reduce the losses of boreal conifer forest in New England from expected losses based on climatic change alone. Main conclusion Projected climate warming in the 21st century is likely to cause the extensive loss of boreal conifer forests, reduce the extent of northern hardwood deciduous forests, and result in large increases of mixed oak–hickory forest in New England.     

To speciate,or not to speciate? Resource heterogeneity,the subjectivity of similarity,and the macroevolutionary consequences of niche‐width shifts in plant‐feeding insects

Coevolutionary studies on plants and plant‐feeding insects have significantly improved our understanding of the role of niche shifts in the generation of new species. Evolving plant lineages essentially constitute moving islands and archipelagoes in resource space, and host shifts by insects are usually preceded by colonizations of novel resources. Critical to hypotheses concerning ecological speciation is what happens immediately before and after colonization attempts: if an available plant is too similar to the current host(s), it simply will be incorporated into the existing diet, but if it is too different, it will not be colonized in the first place. It thus seems that the probability of speciation is maximized when alternative hosts are at an ‘intermediate’ distance in resource space. In this review, I wish to highlight the possibility that resource similarity and, thus, the definition of ‘intermediate’, are subjective concepts that depend on the herbivore lineage's tolerance to dietary variation. This subjectivity of similarity means that changes in tolerance can either decrease or increase speciation probabilities depending on the distribution of plants in resource space: insect lineages with narrow tolerances are likely to speciate by ‘island‐hopping’ on young, species‐rich plant groups, whereas more generalized lineages could speciate by shifting among resource archipelagoes formed by higher plant taxa. Repeated and convergent origins of traits known to broaden or to restrict host‐plant use in multiple different insect groups provide opportunities for studying how tolerance and resource heterogeneity may interact to determine speciation rates.     

Global patterns in the vulnerability of ecosystems to vegetation shifts due to climate change

Aim Climate change threatens to shift vegetation, disrupting ecosystems and damaging human well‐being. Field observations in boreal, temperate and tropical ecosystems have detected biome changes in the 20th century, yet a lack of spatial data on vulnerability hinders organizations that manage natural resources from identifying priority areas for adaptation measures. We explore potential methods to identify areas vulnerable to vegetation shifts and potential refugia. Location Global vegetation biomes. Methods We examined nine combinations of three sets of potential indicators of the vulnerability of ecosystems to biome change: (1) observed changes of 20th‐century climate, (2) projected 21st‐century vegetation changes using the MC1 dynamic global vegetation model under three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios, and (3) overlap of results from (1) and (2). Estimating probability density functions for climate observations and confidence levels for vegetation projections, we classified areas into vulnerability classes based on IPCC treatment of uncertainty. Results One‐tenth to one‐half of global land may be highly (confidence 0.80–0.95) to very highly (confidence ≥ 0.95) vulnerable. Temperate mixed forest, boreal conifer and tundra and alpine biomes show the highest vulnerability, often due to potential changes in wildfire. Tropical evergreen broadleaf forest and desert biomes show the lowest vulnerability. Main conclusions Spatial analyses of observed climate and projected vegetation indicate widespread vulnerability of ecosystems to biome change. A mismatch between vulnerability patterns and the geographic priorities of natural resource organizations suggests the need to adapt management plans. Approximately a billion people live in the areas classified as vulnerable.     

The phenology mismatch hypothesis: are declines of migrant birds linked to uneven global climate change?

1.  Migrant bird populations are declining and have been linked to anthropogenic climate change. The phenology mismatch hypothesis predicts that migrant birds, which experience a greater rate of warming in their breeding grounds compared to their wintering grounds, are more likely to be in decline, because their migration will occur later and they may then miss the early stages of the breeding season. Population trends will also be negatively correlated with distance, because the chances of phenology mismatch increase with number of staging sites.
2.  Population trends from the Palaearctic (1990–2000) and Nearctic (1980–2006) were collated for 193 spatially separate migrant bird populations, along with temperature trends for the wintering and breeding areas. An index of phenology mismatch was calculated as the difference between wintering and breeding temperature trends.
3.  In the Nearctic, phenology mismatch was correlated with population declines as predicted, but in the Palaearctic, distance was more important. This suggests that differential global climate change may be responsible for contributing to some migrant species' declines, but its effects may be more important in the Nearctic.
4.  Differences in geography and so average migration distance, migrant species composition and history of anthropogenic change in the two areas may account for the differences in the strength of the importance of phenology mismatch on migrant declines in the Nearctic and Palaearctic.