Assessing Allowable Take of Migratory Birds

ABSTRACT Legal removal of migratory birds from the wild occurs for several reasons, including subsistence, sport harvest, damage control, and the pet trade. We argue that harvest theory provides the basis for assessing the impact of authorized take, advance a simplified rendering of harvest theory known as potential biological removal as a useful starting point for assessing take, and demonstrate this approach with a case study of depredation control of black vultures (Coragyps atratus) in Virginia, USA. Based on data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey and other sources, we estimated that the black vulture population in Virginia was 91,190 (95% credible interval = 44,520-212,100) in 2006. Using a simple population model and available estimates of life-history parameters, we estimated the intrinsic rate of growth (r_max) to be in the range 7–14%, with 10.6% a plausible point estimate. For a take program to seek an equilibrium population size on the conservative side of the yield curve, the rate of take needs to be less than that which achieves a maximum sustained yield (0.5 × r_max). Based on the point estimate for r_max and using the lower 60% credible interval for population size to account for uncertainty, these conditions would be met if the take of black vultures in Virginia in 2006 was <3,533 birds. Based on regular monitoring data, allowable harvest should be adjusted annually to reflect changes in population size. To initiate discussion about how this assessment framework could be related to the laws and regulations that govern authorization of such take, we suggest that the Migratory Bird Treaty Act requires only that take of native migratory birds be sustainable in the long-term, that is, sustained harvest rate should be <r_max. Further, the ratio of desired harvest rate to 0.5 X r_max may be a useful metric for ascertaining the applicability of specific requirements of the National Environmental Protection Act.     

Between beanbag genetics and natural selection

The encounter between the Darwinian theory of evolution and Mendelism could be resolved only when reductionist tools could be applied to the analysis of complex systems. The instrumental reductionist interpretation of the hereditary basis of continuously varying traits provided mathematical tools which eventually allowed the construction of the Modern Synthesis of the theory of evolution.When genotypic as well as environmental variance allow the isolation of parts of the system, it is possible to apply Mendelian reductionism, that is , to treat the phenotypic trait as if ti causally determined by discrete genes for the trait. howeverm such a beanbag genetics approach obscures the system's eye-view. The concept of heritability, defined as the proportion of the total phenotypic variance due to (additive) hereditary variation, asserts that genetic elements have discrete effects; but by relating to the genotypic variance, it avoids the trap of reffering to genes for characters.     

Use of direct gradient analysis to study the climate-vegetation relationships in Galicia,Spain

This paper reports a bioclimatic analysis of plant species in Galicia, NW Spain. A set of floristic data obtained from 150 plots located at euclimatopes (sites with monitored climate) was analysed using direct gradient analysis and clustering with respect to the 8 climatic variables thought to play a major role in regulating the distribution of the species considered in the study area. Principal component analysis (PCA) and hierarchical clustering were based on a matrix of species by climatic variables. Indicator taxa for the variables were identified on the basis of their Indicator values (Brisse & Grandjouan 1978) and grouped by cluster analysis. The groups produced were compatible with the results of principal component analysis and the frequential analysis of the species, which identified their phytoclimatic nature. The groups were then characterized by determining their climatic positions and indicator values with respect to the chief climatic variables. The first three PCA axes, which were associated with Oceanity, Mean minimum temperatures and the temperature range in the coldest month, together accounted for 97.2% of the variance of the data.     

By-product runaway evolution by adaptive mate choice: A behavioural aspect of sexual selection

Summary From a behavioural perspective on adaptive female choice, I developed a by-product runaway model of adaptive mate choice. The model illustrates the evolution of the tail size of peacocks. I consider the causal mechanisms of adaptive female choice: (1) why (ultimate reasons); (2) how (proximate mechanisms). Assumptions are developed based on these behavioural aspects. For (1) ultimate reasons, I assume that many male losers (low-fitness males) always occur due to genetic and environmental uncertainty (A-1). For (2) proximate mechanisms, I assume that losers tend to differ in the expression of a fitness-sensitive trait (an ultimate target, e.g. body size; A-2), that the fitness-sensitive trait correlates with a secondary sexual trait (a proximate cue, e.g. allometry in body size and tail size; (A-3), and that the cue trait has a genetic basis that is independent of the target trait (e.g. a genetic basis in tail ratio to body size; A-4). The model's results are: persistent female choice by means of a proximate cue (R-1); by-product selection on the independent genetic basis of the cue (R-2); and the non-adaptive or maladaptive runaway evolution of the male proximate cue (R-3). In this model, female mate preferences are non-arbitrary and adaptive, whereas the resulting evolution of male secondary sexual traits is non-adaptive in the sense of survival selection.     

Evolution in heterogeneous environments: Effects of migration on habitat specialization

Summary Richard Levins introduced fitness sets as a tool for investigating evolution within heterogeneous environments. Evolutionary game theory permits a synthesis and generalization of this approach by considering the evolutionary response of organisms to any scale of habitat heterogeneity. As scales of heterogeneity increase from fine to coarse, the evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) switches from a single generalist species to several species that become increasingly specialized on distinct habitats. Depending upon the organisms' ecology, the switch from one to two species may occur at high migration rates (relatively fine-grained environment), or may only occur at very low migration rates (coarse-grained environment). At the ESS, the evolutionary context of a species is the entire landscape, while its ecological context may be a single habitat.Evolution towards the ESS can be represented with adaptive landscapes. In the absence of frequency-dependence, shifting from a single strategy ESS to a two strategy ESS poses the problem of evolving across valleys in the adaptive surface to occupy new peaks (hence, Sewell Wright's shifting balance theory). Frequency-dependent processes facilitate evolution across valleys. If a system with a two strategy ESS is constrained to possess a single strategy, the population may actually evolve a strategy that minimizes fitness. Because the population now rests at the bottom of a valley, evolution by natural selection can drive populations to occupy both peaks.     

Implementation of an adaptive controller for the startup and steady-state running of a biomethanation process operated in the CSTR mode

An adaptive control algorithm has been implemented on a biomethanation process to maintain propionate concentration, a stable variable, at a given low value, by steering the dilution rate. It was thereby expected to ensure the stability of the process during the startup and during steady-state running with an acceptable performance. The methane pilot reactor was operated in the completely mixed, once-through mode and computer-controlled during 161 days. The results yielded the real-life validation of the adaptive control algorithm, and documented the stability and acceptable performance expected.     

几种担子菌胞外漆酶同工酶谱的研究

从猴头(Hericium erinaceus)、亚侧耳(Hohenbuehelia serotina)、毛柄金钱菌(Co-llybia velutipes)、多脂鳞伞(Pholiota adiposa)、香菇(Lentinus edodes)、黑木耳(Auriculariaauricula)、草菇(Volvaria volpacea)二孢蘑菇(Agaricus bisporus)和紫孢侧耳(Pleurotussapidus)、侧耳(Pleurotus ostreatus)风尾菇(P.sajor-caju)、金顶侧耳(P.citrinopileatus)、鲍鱼菇(P.cystidiosus)、佛罗里达侧耳(P.florida)、爪哇漏斗状侧耳(P.sajor-caju var.javanicus)商品化菌种的培养滤液里所得到的胞外漆酶(LC),采用聚丙烯酰胺凝胶等电聚焦盘状电泳方法,分析比较了它们的胞外漆酶同工酶。经多批次比较试验,获得了侧耳属七个种和八个不同属间各自恒定的漆酶同工酶谱。在这些酶谱中,分别包含了 A 组(pH3—5)和 B 组(pH5—8)的谱带。而且,所有菌种间漆酶带的等电点值(pI)各有异同。没有测定菌种间各漆酶带含量差别。讨论了漆酶同工酶谱用于分类研究的可能性。     

A decade of marketing approval of gene and cell-based therapies in the United States,European Union and Japan: An evaluation of regulatory decision-making

There is a widely held expectation of clinical advance with the development of gene and cell-based therapies (GCTs). Yet, establishing benefits and risks is highly uncertain. We examine differences in decision-making for GCT approval between jurisdictions by comparing regulatory assessment procedures in the United States (US), European Union (EU) and Japan. A cohort of 18 assessment procedures was analyzed by comparing product characteristics, evidentiary and non-evidentiary factors considered for approval and post-marketing risk management. Product characteristics are very heterogeneous and only three products are marketed in multiple jurisdictions. Almost half of all approved GCTs received an orphan designation. Overall, confirmatory evidence or indications of clinical benefit were evident in US and EU applications, whereas in Japan approval was solely granted based on non-confirmatory evidence. Due to scientific uncertainties and safety risks, substantial post-marketing risk management activities were requested in the EU and Japan. EU and Japanese authorities often took unmet medical needs into consideration in decision-making for approval. These observations underline the effects of implemented legislation in these two jurisdictions that facilitate an adaptive approach to licensing. In the US, the recent assessments of two chimeric antigen receptor-T cell (CAR-T) products are suggestive of a trend toward a more permissive approach for GCT approval under recent reforms, in contrast to a more binary decision-making approach for previous approvals. It indicates that all three regulatory agencies are currently willing to take risks by approving GCTs with scientific uncertainties and safety risks, urging them to pay accurate attention to post-marketing risk management.     

Prioritizing forest fuels treatments based on the probability of high‐severity fire restores adaptive capacity in Sierran forests

In frequent fire forests of the western United States, a legacy of fire suppression coupled with increases in fire weather severity have altered fire regimes and vegetation dynamics. When coupled with projected climate change, these conditions have the potential to lead to vegetation type change and altered carbon (C) dynamics. In the Sierra Nevada, fuels reduction approaches that include mechanical thinning followed by regular prescribed fire are one approach to restore the ability of the ecosystem to tolerate episodic fire and still sequester C. Yet, the spatial extent of the area requiring treatment makes widespread treatment implementation unlikely. We sought to determine if a priori knowledge of where uncharacteristic wildfire is most probable could be used to optimize the placement of fuels treatments in a Sierra Nevada watershed. We developed two treatment placement strategies: the naive strategy, based on treating all operationally available area and the optimized strategy, which only treated areas where crown‐killing fires were most probable. We ran forecast simulations using projected climate data through 2,100 to determine how the treatments differed in terms of C sequestration, fire severity, and C emissions relative to a no‐management scenario. We found that in both the short (20 years) and long (100 years) term, both management scenarios increased C stability, reduced burn severity, and consequently emitted less C as a result of wildfires than no‐management. Across all metrics, both scenarios performed the same, but the optimized treatment required significantly less C removal (naive=0.42 Tg C, optimized=0.25 Tg C) to achieve the same treatment efficacy. Given the extent of western forests in need of fire restoration, efficiently allocating treatments is a critical task if we are going to restore adaptive capacity in frequent‐fire forests.     

脑脊液检查在早产儿及足月儿细菌性脑膜炎的诊断价值

目的:评价脑脊液检查在早产儿及足月儿细菌性脑膜炎诊断中的价值。方法:选取2014年6月1日至2016年12月31日上海市儿童医院新生儿科收治的行腰椎穿刺检查的447例新生儿,回顾性分析新生儿的一般资料、脑脊液常规生化、培养等指标,根据胎龄将患儿分为早产儿167例与足月儿280例,再根据有无患发细菌性脑膜炎分为早产儿细菌性脑膜炎27例(早产儿观察组)、早产儿非细菌性脑膜炎140例(早产儿对照组)、足月儿细菌性脑膜炎38例(足月儿观察组)、足月儿非细菌性脑膜炎242例(足月儿对照组),采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线评估蛋白定量、白细胞计数、葡萄糖对早产儿及足月儿细菌性脑膜炎的诊断价值。结果:与同组对照组相比,足月儿观察组和早产儿观察组蛋白定量和白细胞计数均明显升高,而葡萄糖含量显著下降,且差异均具有统计学意义(P0.05);本研究65例细菌性脑膜炎患儿脑脊液培养分离出11株细菌(16.9%)。足月儿脑脊液白细胞计数、蛋白定量以及葡萄糖诊断细菌性脑膜炎的ROC曲线下面积分别为0.995、0.846、0.703。早产儿脑脊液白细胞计数、蛋白定量以及葡萄糖诊断细菌性脑膜炎ROC曲线下面积分别为0.970、0.711、0.705。结论:脑脊液白细胞计数、蛋白定量在足月儿和早产儿细菌性脑膜炎中具有较高的诊断价值。