Novel strategies for assessing and managing the risks posed by invasive alien species to global crop production and biodiversity

International actions to combat the threat posed by invasive alien species (IAS) to crops and biodiversity have intensified in recent years. The formulation of 15 guiding principles on IAS by the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) stimulated the International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC) to review its role in protecting biodiversity. IPPC standards now demonstrate clearly that the risks posed by any organism that is directly or indirectly injurious to cultivated or uncultivated plants can be assessed and managed under the IPPC. Since the IPPC, unlike the CBD, constitutes an international legal instrument recognised by the World Trade Organization, greater protection from the introduction of IAS is now available. However, phytosanitary measures can only be enacted if they can be justified by risk analysis and we outline some novel strategies to improve the assessment and management of the risks posed by IAS, highlighting some of the key challenges which remain.     

The impact of hybrids between genetically modified crop plants and their related species: introgression and weediness

Assessing the impact of hybrids between transgenic plants and nontarget wild species involves answering several questions such as: (i) what are the hybridization and introgression rates; (ii) what is the behaviour of a transgene in a wild population; and (iii) what will be the consequences of the expression of a transgene in a wild population? These issues are discussed using results from experiments on oilseed rape and wild related Brassiceae. Evidence is given of large variations in the estimates of cross-fertilization probabilities. The first stage of introgression into wild populations is demonstrated to occur spontaneously through back-crossing. Population analysis may also be valuable to detect traces of past introgression. Data from the literature on weed biology, and especially herbicide resistance, are used to illustrate the behaviour of a new gene in weed populations. The need for computer models simulating the introgression process is stressed.     

Risk assessment of heavy metal and metalloid toxicity through a contaminated vegetable (Cucurbita maxima) from wastewater irrigated area: A case study for a site-specific risk assessment in Jhang,Pakistan

The present research was conducted in district Jhang, Pakistan, to evaluate the concentration of metals/metalloids in soil and pumpkin (Cucurbita maxima) irrigated with domestic wastewater. Data revealed that the levels of metals and metalloids in soil samples from two different sites were below the safe limits except Cd, whereas, in the vegetable, the concentrations of As, Se, Ni, Mo, Pb, Mn, and Cu were above the safe limits. The levels of 12 metals and metalloids in the soil were ranged between 0.14 to 22.76 mg/kg at site-I and 0.16 to 22.13 mg/kg at site-II. The levels of these metals in the vegetable were found 0.35 to 61.13 mg/kg at site-I and 0.31 to 53.63 mg/kg at site-II. The transfer factor at both sites was highest for As and Co. The pollution load index recorded for Se, Cu, Cd, Mo, Pb, and Co was greater than 1. The daily intake of As, Mn, and Mo was above the oral reference dose, which reflects that the intake of pumpkin is not safe for the inhabitants of the selected sites. The control measures should be taken to phytoextract heavy metals and metalloids from polluted sites so as to reduce the health risks.     

The Monofactorial Model for Recurrence Risks with Generalized Penetrance

Recurrence risks are derived explicitly in terms of gene frequencies and penetrance coefficients for the general case in which all genotypes have incomplete penetrance. Maximum likelihood estimation of recurrence risks is achieved through the use of the semi-symmetric intraclass contingency table. The resulting formulas and estimation procedure can be useful for the analysis of population and family data, and in genetic counselling.     

Sarcocystis cernae: A parasite increasing the risk of predation of its intermediate host,Microtus arvalis

Summary 1)The transmission dynamics of the protozoan parasite Sarcocystis carnae (erná and Louková 1976) (Apicomplexa, Eimeroidea, Sarcocystidae) in natural populations were studied in the Lauwersmeerpolder in the northern Netherlands. This parasite needs two hosts to complete its life cycle; the common vole (Microtus arvalis) as its intermediate host and the kestrel (Falco tinnunculus) which preys on the vole, as its final host. 2) Seasonal variation in prevalence of infection in snap-trapped common voles was determined in two years, 1984 and 1985. It was found to be lowest in November (6% of the voles infected) and it increased gradually to a peak in May (33%). 3) Data collected in three successive kestrel breeding seasons (1983–85) revealed that voles in the kestrel summer diet are infected twice as frequently as those in snap-trap samples, 21% and 9% respectively. This difference (P<0.05, X²-test) suggests that the parasite influences its intermediate host behaviour in such a way that it enhances the probability of parasite transmission to the final host.     

Modeling rendille household herd composition

Previous analysis of Rendille household herd composition revealed a transition from camel to cattle ownership for sedentary impoverished Rendille pastoralists of northern Kenya. In an attempt to delineate determinants of livestock holdings, logistic regression analysis of 112 household herds from the Rendille settlement of Korr, Marsabit District, Kenya was undertaken. Results indicated that household wealth, measured in present livestock holdings, past drought losses, and livestock sales, formed better predictors of cattle ownership than did household characteristics pertaining to labor supply, wage earners, age-set membership, and birth order of household head. These results are discussed in light of pastoral strategies designed to minimize risk.