A spatial panel statistical analysis on cultivated land conversion and chinese economic growth

The conflict between cultivated land protection and economic development has become increasingly acute in recent years. Despite, intensive researches made on this conflict, little attention has been paid to the spatial correlation of variables. In view of this, the paper introduces the spatial panel regression model to estimate, and test whether the relationship between economic growth and cultivated land conversion conforms to Kuznets curve. Research results show that the area of converted cultivated land in China exhibits strong spatial auto-correlation; the spatial panel model with time effect and fixed effect is more stable and significant than conventional panel mode, and that the relationship between economic growth and cultivated land conversion agrees with the inverted U-shape of Kuznets curve, with inflection point occurring when average per capita GDP reaches ¥31330.93 (calculated at comparable price of 1999). On the basis of analysis, it is suggested that the government, with a view to developing economy alongside protecting cultivated land, should attach more importance to land use and planning in the future, pay more attention to the spatial correlation of cultivated land planning in adjacent areas and make greater efforts to increase the input–output ratio of land.     

Diversity,dynamics and reproduction in a community of small mammals in Upper Guinea,with emphasis on pygmy mice ecology

As part of a large survey on reservoirs of Lassa fever in Guinea, three villages were investigated in high endemic zone, close to Sierra Leone border. Biodiversity of the small mammal community is presented in this study through a standardized trapping in houses, cultivations and forest. Identification of the small mammals was based on morphology and by molecular technique for sibling species. Of the 1123 specimens collected in 2003–2005, we identified seventeen species (thirteen Muridae, four Soricidae), leading to high diversity (Shannon index = 1.6–1.8) and high equitability (evenness index = 0.7–0.8) in cultivations and forest. In houses conversely, the rodent community was dominated by Mastomys natalensis (95–98%), leading to low diversity and equitability. Dynamics and reproduction were investigated in two species of pygmy mice, Mus mattheyi and Mus minutoides, two species of Praomys, P. daltoni and P. rostratus, and in Mastomys erythroleucus. The pygmy mice were abundant in cultivations in early rainy season, and reproduced from rainy to dry season. Praomys daltoni was also found more abundant in cultivations and seemed to reproduce between rainy and dry season, whereas P. rostratus preferred forest and cultivations in late rainy season, and reproduced throughout the year. Finally, M. erythroleucus was more abundant in forest in dry season, and seemed to reproduce from late rainy to dry season. This species had a low occurrence (6.5%) in the Faranah’s zone, and probably lived at its southern limit in Guinea. The presence of other Murinae, such as M. natalensis, Praomys spp as possible competitors in the same habitats, is discussed. For the first time, this study relates population biology of pygmy mice with molecular identification.     

胰腺癌患者血清CEA、CA242、CA199水平变化及联合诊断的ROC曲线分析

目的:探讨胰腺癌患者血清癌胚抗原(CEA)、糖类抗原242(CA242)、糖类抗原199(CA199)水平变化,并分析上述指标对胰腺癌的联合诊断价值,为胰腺癌的临床诊断提供参考。方法:选择2014年2月至2018年2月我院收治的186例胰腺癌患者(胰腺癌组)、89例胰腺炎患者(胰腺炎组)作为研究对象,并取同期来我院检查的268例健康人作为对照组。比较三组受试者的血清CEA、CA242、CA199水平变化,对比分析血清CEA、CA242、CA199的单一以及联合诊断的准确度、特异度以及灵敏度,并绘制ROC曲线以分析上述指标的诊断价值。结果:三组受试者血清CEA、CA242、CA199水平差异具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。且胰腺炎组和胰腺癌组的血清CEA、CA242、CA199水平明显高于对照组,胰腺癌组患者的血清CEA、CA242、CA199水平明显高于胰腺炎组,差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。ROC曲线结果显示,CEA诊断价值最大,CA199诊断价值最小。CEA是胰腺癌单项肿瘤标志物中敏感度最高的,为85.48%;特异度最高的为CA242(96.72%);三项肿瘤标志物联合诊断的准确度增加至92.27%,敏感度增加至95.16%,特异度相比略有下降。结论:与单一肿瘤标记物诊断胰腺癌相比,CEA、CA242、CA199联合诊断的敏感度和准确度均明显升高,可以明显改善胰腺癌的漏诊率,提高患者的生存率,具有较好的临床应用价值。     

Population responses of roe deer to the recolonization of the French Vercors by wolves

In a context of changing carnivore populations worldwide, it is crucial to understand the consequences of these changes for prey populations. The recolonization by wolves of the French Vercors mountain range and the long-term monitoring (2001–2017) of roe deer in this area provided a unique opportunity to assess the effects of wolves on this prey. Roe deer was the main prey of wolves in the west Vercors mountain range during this recolonization. We compared roe deer abundance and fawn body mass in two contrasted areas of a wolf pack territory: a central area (core of the territory characterized by an intense use by wolves) and a peripheral area (used more occasionally). Roe deer population growth rates were lower in the central area between 2001 and 2006, resulting in a decline in roe deer abundance. Roe deer abundance substantially dropped in the two study areas after an extremely severe winter but the abundance of roe deer in the central area facing with wolves was slower to recover and remained at lower abundance levels for 6 years. Fawn body mass was consistently lower in the central area, varied similarly as roe deer abundance, and was not influenced by weather conditions or red deer population abundance. Altogether, the effects of wolves on roe deer in the central area occurred during a 10-year period following the establishment of wolves, through the interplay between wolf predation (before wolves started preying on red deer), harsh winter conditions and possibly naivety of prey to this recolonizing predator.     

Passive restoration in Araucaria Forest: useful ecological indicators in monitoring successional advancement in exotic tree plantation landscapes

Monitoring successional advancement is a complex field involving a constant search for applied ecological indicators which facilitate monitoring of secondary forests for both active and passive restoration. In this study, the authors investigate the successional advancement of floristics and tree structure within Araucaria Forest (AF) fragments under passive restoration in a context where exotic tree plantations (mainly Pinus L. genus) dominate the landscape. The ecological indicators used were floristic dissimilarity (β‐diversity inferences), indicator species, ecological groups of species, basal area, and species abundance distribution (SAD) models (α‐diversity inferences). A total of 182 tree species belonging to 91 genera and 43 botanical families were identified. A high β diversity was verified for which each site has indicator species (for the locations CD—Dicksonia sellowiana; CO—Cryptocarya aschersoniana; and PG—Pinus taeda), where pioneer species contributed to much of the abundance. Different SAD models are useful for describing passive restoration sites in exotic tree plantation landscapes, namely Lognormal, Mandelbrot, and Zipf. SAD models together with basal area, taxonomic group (e.g. Myrtaceae assemblage), and tree abundance in ecological groups are strategic ecological indicators for monitoring successional advancement in AF.     

Projecting terrestrial biodiversity intactness with GLOBIO 4

Scenario‐based biodiversity modelling is a powerful approach to evaluate how possible future socio‐economic developments may affect biodiversity. Here, we evaluated the changes in terrestrial biodiversity intactness, expressed by the mean species abundance (MSA) metric, resulting from three of the shared socio‐economic pathways (SSPs) combined with different levels of climate change (according to representative concentration pathways [RCPs]): a future oriented towards sustainability (SSP1xRCP2.6), a future determined by a politically divided world (SSP3xRCP6.0) and a future with continued global dependency on fossil fuels (SSP5xRCP8.5). To this end, we first updated the GLOBIO model, which now runs at a spatial resolution of 10 arc‐seconds (~300 m), contains new modules for downscaling land use and for quantifying impacts of hunting in the tropics, and updated modules to quantify impacts of climate change, land use, habitat fragmentation and nitrogen pollution. We then used the updated model to project terrestrial biodiversity intactness from 2015 to 2050 as a function of land use and climate changes corresponding with the selected scenarios. We estimated a global area‐weighted mean MSA of 0.56 for 2015. Biodiversity intactness declined in all three scenarios, yet the decline was smaller in the sustainability scenario (?0.02) than the regional rivalry and fossil‐fuelled development scenarios (?0.06 and ?0.05 respectively). We further found considerable variation in projected biodiversity change among different world regions, with large future losses particularly for sub‐Saharan Africa. In some scenario‐region combinations, we projected future biodiversity recovery due to reduced demands for agricultural land, yet this recovery was counteracted by increased impacts of other pressures (notably climate change and road disturbance). Effective measures to halt or reverse the decline of terrestrial biodiversity should not only reduce land demand (e.g. by increasing agricultural productivity and dietary changes) but also focus on reducing or mitigating the impacts of other pressures.